Closing Arguments: Obama

    Tax Policy Center, Sept. 15: [W]ithout substantial cuts in government spending, both plans would sharply increase the national debt. Including interest costs, Obama's tax plan would boost the debt by $3.5 trillion by 2018. McCain's plan would increase the debt by $5 trillion on top of the $2.3 trillion increase that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts for the next decade.

The TPC analysis does not include either candidate's proposed spending cuts. But the report notes that bringing the budget into balance would "require unprecedented spending cuts under either candidate's tax plan." Fiscal reality dictates that neither candidate can deliver on all of his promises without incurring tremendous new debt.

Obama's Health Care Hokum, Again
In his infomercial, Obama claimed "[M]y health care plan includes improving information technology, requires coverage for preventive care and preexisting conditions, and lowers health care costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year." Way back in June when we dug into the accounting behind this claim, an Obama adviser told us that more than half of it is attributed to savings from the widespread adoption of electronic records, at least some of which is expected to go to government, employers and insurance companies. The campaign, we were told, expects a trickle-down effect that could reach consumers in the form of lower taxes, reduced premiums or higher wages. So even if the savings materialized, some of them would be passed along in a variety of ways that might not be seen as lowering health care costs, such as premiums, by $2,500 a year.

The savings estimate, though, is a goal unlikely to be met. Obama's claim assumes that 90 percent of doctors and hospitals will adopt health IT. But adoption has been slow, and experts say getting to that level of use will take much longer than one presidential term. Estimates vary, but in 2006, the Congressional Budget Office said only 12 percent of physicians and 11 percent of hospitals had electronic records systems.

Dr. Rainu Kaushal, a professor of public health at the Weill Medical College of Cornell University, told us that with the right policies, 90 percent adoption is achievable. But, "I think it's pie in the sky for the next five years," she said. "I think we're looking more in the eight to 10 [year] range."

And more important, experts also believe that any big-dollar savings from health IT are unlikely to flow through directly to the general public. Catherine Desroches, an instructor at the Harvard Medical School and a researcher at the Institute for Health Policy at Massachusetts General Hospital, called the idea of trickle-down premium reductions an "unlikely event." Despite the doubt expressed by some, Obama has continued to cite this optimistic – to say the least – figure.

Obama's "Jobs Overseas" Fantasy, Again
Obama's infomercial, and his closing TV ads, continue to harp on the theme of "tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas," which Obama proposes to eliminate.
We can't say whether or not he can deliver on that promise, but as we've been saying for more than four years now, (and most recently on Sept. 26) eliminating them won't do much to keep jobs in the U.S. In a recent exchange of e-mails with us, Eric Toder of the Tax Policy Center concluded that eliminating such tax breaks "is a nice political slogan, but will do little or nothing for U.S. employment or incomes."

Still to come
This is most likely our last article before Election Day. But as you head out to vote Tuesday, or wait for the ballots to be counted, check back for our just-for-fun  "awards" article, in which we'll look back at some of the ads and claims we may not have gotten around to writing about, but found amusing or notable nevertheless.

Republished with permission from factcheck.org.

Sources
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Promises, Promises: A Fiscal Voter Guide to the 2008 Election." U.S. Budget Watch. 31 Oct 2008.

Williams, Roberton and Gleckman, Howard, " An Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates' Tax Plans: Executive Summary - Revised September 15, 2008 " Tax Policy Center, 15 Sep 2008.

Simon, Richard " Federal deficit hits record $455 billion ; The shortfall for fiscal 2008 is even larger than had been feared. It is likely to be a key issue as the presidential race winds down." Los Angeles Times 15 Oct 2008.

Congressional Budget Office, " The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update " 9 Sep 2008.

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