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Even McCain's running mate was caught off guard. "I want to get back to Michigan, and I want to try," Palin told Fox News on the day the pullout was announced. "I fired off a quick e-mail and said, 'Oh, come on, you know, do we have to? Do we have to call it there?'" Palin's surprise—she says she learned of the Michigan pullout by reading it in the papers—only added to the aura of chaos surrounding the decision.

Normally, a candidate backs off with little fanfare, leaving his options open to return if the polls change. Obama, for example, has gone in and out of Georgia. In Michigan, the Republicans have successful employed head fakes to draw in their Democratic challengers. In 2004, Bush made a visit to Michigan in the final week of the campaign, though he was trailing in the polls. John Kerry responded, spending precious time and resources to shore up Michigan on the eve of the election. Kerry took Michigan 51 percent to 48 percent, but lost Ohio and the election. "One of the reasons Kerry lost Ohio was because he had to come back to Michigan," says Anuzis. "In the last two elections, Michigan played a critical role not by winning, but by distracting and keeping the Democrats on the defensive."

This time, though, the Republicans lack the money and manpower to pull off such strategic moves. Obama still has nearly 200 paid staffers on the ground in Michigan, twice as many as Kerry had at this point four years ago (though down from nearly 400 staffers before McCain pulled out). The Democratic National Cpmmittee also continues to pour money into Michigan, while the GOP virtually turned off the spigot once McCain left. As of Oct. 15, the Dems had $3.5 million to funnel into federal races in Michigan, while the Republicans had just $860,000, campaign finance records show. Obama hasn't stumped in Michigan since Oct. 3, but he continues to open new campaign offices and press his advantage. "No matter what the other side decided to do," says Obama spokesman Brent Colburn, "Michigan is still important to us."

But Obama was helped by more than just McCain's missteps. He also got a boost from the departure of Detroit's controversial mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, who resigned in September after copping to two felonies for lying in a sex-and-texting scandal as part of a plea bargain with prosecutors. Obama had avoided campaigning in Detroit for fear of being photographed with Kilpatrick. (Obama asked the mayor to stay away from the Democratic convention this summer, which was not a problem since Kilpatrick's travel was restricted by the electronic tether on his ankle.) Some GOP operatives attempted to link the two men, who are both African-American, with ads that ran in Macomb County showing them hugging before a 2007 speech in Detroit. But with Kilpatrick heading off to jail, those ads never gained traction and Obama now actually leads McCain in mostly white, working-class Macomb County.

Still, some political analysts believe McCain misunderstood the unpredictability of race in Michigan politics. Ever since the 1967 riots, Detroit has divided along racial lines, with a mostly black, impoverished city surrounded by mostly white, prosperous suburbs. Tensions bubble beneath the surface, though they are not always shared with pollsters. In 2006, Michigan voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot proposal outlawing affirmative action, even though polls leading up to Election Day predicted the proposal would fail. "The issue of race is still a lodestone in the state of Michigan that the Democratic Party has to bear," says Sam Riddle, a veteran political operative who is African-American. "To some, Obama is the end result of affirmative action, and therefore he becomes the target of opponents of affirmative action."

That makes Michigan a wild card that can defy the prognosticators. That's why candidates as disparate as George Wallace, Jesse Jackson and McCain himself have prevailed in primaries in the Great Lakes State. McCain and Palin claim to be out to prove the pundits wrong. They might have had a good opportunity in Michigan. "It's ironic that the maverick himself didn't understand the maverick nature of Michigan," says Riddle. "McCain clearly pulled out of a state where he had a chance to pull an upset." That prospect has left Republicans feeling blue in Michigan.

With Mary Chapman

© 2008

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: metaldiva @ 11/06/2008 8:29:20 PM

    Mr Krohn..I am reaching out to you as best as I can...there is no one person or thing in this world that has the kind of money you propose was used to "buy" the election. To assume that every person that voted for Mr. Obama was led to do so by that select group of which you speak is foolhardy at best. There will be a historical account of this time in US history that will define it as the rejection of the separatist agenda of the Neo-Cons. What they, the Rovians, did is to reignite the old "North VS South", "City Folk VS Country Folk", "The 'Revenuer' Man VS The Moonshiners" fears of the past. The Rovians were able to pinpoint the fears of regular people caught in the maelstrom of the information explosion. Humans generally attack anything new, and that played along with the game. The biggest shame of the entire past 8 years was two fold...the bastardizing of the actual history of Ronald Regan and the abuse of the Evangelicals. Ronald Regan was a quieting force, able to connnect with all of the USA. However, he did not cause the end to the cold war, it was Johnpaul II, a Polish National that flexed his influence and drew the European peoples in that missed religion and still had the number one force "covet". They coveted the west, which was drawn in on small television via a bootleg satellite dish network. People wanted to be free and in control of their own lives. It was clear that no one American preisdent could bring the USSR down, they imploded instead, due to their hubris and the mere fact that they were in smaller numbers than those they meant to rule. WHen RR left office the entire credit market was messed up so bad, it gave birth to the modern collections industry and the crash of the market. The second is that so much of the last 8 years was flooded with the idea that one American was better than the other because of their faith. THis country was founded by ment that felt their religion was private, and PURPOSELY left any restriction on law due to religious preference out. THEY DID use the the affirmation of "So help Me GOD", One nation under GOD, in god we trust..as the ULTIMATE measure of the dedication and honesty. To have done all that has been and say it was honored by GOD or led by HIM is sad. The bottlnecking of the media has been a result of the Rupert Murdoch empire. As scary as it has been these past 8 years, I was never afraid that things would not change...I counted on it..WIth the internet the exchange of ideas is limitless, and it is impossible to hide anything. No one had to pay anyone to steer votes in any direction....I promise you , if you will let go of your fear of anything "not Republican" you will be open to facts from everywhere. Don't buy into the lies anymore. Be free Krohn, Be Free...

  • Posted By: metaldiva @ 11/06/2008 6:44:04 PM

    MIchigan is historically a worker state and ALWAYS heavily Democratic. Over the last 8 years we've seen the new "country folk", those that sold their small city homes to build on the "newly converted state properties' which pretty much ate up most of the lakefronts in the state, who thought they could be "cowboys". But like T Boone Pickens says " All hat, no cows". They attempted to ride the "everyubody's a star at church" craziness that seemed to glut itself on the Rabid Right Wing Republican movement. . As usual honesty and truth wins out. Americans cont like the choice of hating those that have a different idea or agenda, they are more prone to agree where they can and not get too embroiled in the things we dont agree on. Michigan is like that..

  • Posted By: Krohn @ 11/05/2008 9:06:41 PM

    George Soros finally got what he wanted! I have a feeling that his influence is going to extend well beyond the campaign stage. Everybody was touting what a great campaign Obama was running. But he wasn't running it. It was running him. With enough money you can buy anything. You can buy extreme order. George Soros is going to continue coddling Obama through his presidency to make him look good. He will likely be in contact with foreign leaders, buying their cooperation and easing their fears. The Democratic take over of congress was probably engineered long in advance. This also makes Obama's job easier and insulates him from the tough issues that presidents have to deal with in terms of senate battles between Republicans and Democrats. George Soros likely bought Obama an Army of advisors to answer any and all questions. Remember Soros is the financial genious that made his money off of the securities markets. He may have even had a hand in crashing the stock market to favor the Democrats just before the election. There is no way that the most unqualified presidential candidate in history got to where he did without such massive help. Some have speculated that after Obama won the Presidency, the media would turn on him and the honeymoon would be over but there is a broader agenda. Soros is buying up all of these newspapers that are endorsing Obama which is an attempt at a Socialist propaganda state. He will likely retain his control over the large media networks as well. What is the price Obama pays for having his ego stoked? An agenda that makes George Soros the grand puppet master of planet Earth!

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