Turnout : The Diversed Demographic an how obama brought them all Together.
by DemFromCT
Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 05:13:54 PM PST
The kids really are alright. And not just the kids showed up.
First Read links to the voter-eligible population expert, Michael McDonald from George Mason University, who notes that the turnout percentage is awesome:
Provided the number stands, the turnout rate for yesterday's election was the highest in 100 years, according to the estimate from turnout guru Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University. Almost 137 million (136,631,825) went to the polls -- 64.1% of the voting-eligible population. 1960 saw 63.7% of the populace go out to vote; In 1908, 65.7% voted. It was, of course, the most people ever to go to the polls topping 2004's 122 million. That's 12% increase from 2004.
For those wondering why the current total vote in the presidential adds up to approximately 117 million, note that it's going to climb. There is still a ton of vote missing on the West coast.
However, it's not clear how big the total will be.
Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University and dean of turnout experts, said his early numbers show 2008 to be about equal to or better than 1964, but not higher than 1960. He said it looks like total votes, once absentees are tallied (which could take a day or so), will be "somewhere between 134 and 135 million."
That's still the highest turnout in 40 years percentage wise (it was 60.1 of the voter-eligible population in 2004, and you have to go back to 1968 to get a figure that's at least 60%.)
From Prof. McDonald (more complete data here):
1960 63.8
1964 62.8
1968 62.5
1972 56.2
1976 54.8
1980 54.2
1984 55.2
1988 52.8
1992 58.1
1996 51.7
2000 54.2
2004 60.1
We commented this morning on the changing demographics ( less fewer whites.) In 2000, the exit polls put whites at 81%.
Maybe McCain's campaign would have worked better in 2000. Maybe what thwarted it was this:
There is a chance that American turnout will match or surpass the 1960 turnout, and if it does, that will mean approximately 136 million people voted. That raw number will be the most people who have ever voted in an American election.
Welcome to the 21st Century.









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