A Feckless Response

While the world wrings its hands over the fate of an estimated quarter million people caught up in the roiling conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, it seems likely that little will actually be done about the long-running African civil war. The best bet for stopping the violence, the United Nations' 17,000-strong multilateral peacekeeping force, known as MONUC, is spread thin and considered ineffective; it will take months to increase its presence in the country. The European Union is reluctant to deploy a crack force, and southern African leaders have committed only to sending in a "technical team." The world's response, in the words of Henri Boshoff, a military expert for the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, is likely to be "too little too late."

Since last month, rebels under the command of Laurent Nkunda, a Tutsi and former Congolese General, have been at war with government forces. The rebels, ethnic Tutsis, were once a part of the national army, but they turned on the government in 2004, after accusing it of supporting a Hutu militia. Since then, Nkunda's followers have battled the Congolese army and its allies. Now they've overrun the villages and towns around Goma, a town in eastern Congo, and 250,000 people have been displaced and more than 100 civilians killed in the past month. Looting, rape and the recruitment of child soldiers, once vilified, have returned.

Despite widespread agreement in the international community that something must be done—a summit on Nov. 7 attended by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged an immediate ceasefire and political settlement—precious little action has been taken. Military analysts believe the best hope for a cessation of violence would come from a European Union battle group—an elite, well-equipped force of roughly 1,500 soldiers. "That would be a short-term solution while MONUC's capacity is built and its mandate reconsidered," military analyst Boshoff says. But the chances of a European response are slight, largely because of opposition from Britain. Already embroiled in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.K. is reluctant to get involved in what could be a protracted civil conflict.

But even if the EU sends a Battle Group, it will be only a temporary fix until the United Nations can bolster its ineffectual MONUC force. On Tuesday, the U.N. Under-Secretary General for peacekeeping, Alain Le Roy, told reporters that he had requested an additional 3,000 troops and police from the Security Council. "No decision has been taken yet by the council, but I think the mood is evolving into reinforcing the troops," he said. Even if Le Roy's request is granted, the United Nations, in its usual way, will take its time in dispatching the reinforcements. The Security Council won't vote on the issue until a new report on MONUC is released next week, and even then it could take weeks to pass a resolution. Le Roy said it will take at least two months for troop reinforcements to arrive. In the meantime, he is redeploying existing troops throughout eastern Congo, especially around the hotspot area near Goma.

The regional response, too, has been slow in coming and feckless. The 14-country Southern African Development Community (SADC) is sending a technical team to Congo to investigate, and based on its report it will decide whether or not to send troops. On Sunday, leaders have agreed to provide peacekeepers to eastern Congo if needed. The SADC is concerned about the possibility of conflict engulfing the region. "The security situation in DRC is affecting peace and stability in the SADC," said executive secretary-general Tomaz Salomão. But Boshoff believes that, even if they're willing to act, "SADC doesn't have the capacity to immediately deploy the kind of well-trained EU-style battle group that is needed."

With near-term military action looking extraordinarily unlikely, that leaves diplomacy. But the DRC's government has rejected calls to talk with rebel-leader Nkunda; Congo's ambassador to the United Nations, Atoki Ileka, has called him "a killer" worthy of war-crimes prosecution. Nkunda recently told the BBC that his Tutsi rebels were abiding by a ceasefire declared on Oct. 30, but threatened to topple the government if negotiations don't begin soon—although it's unlikely that his small force could do more than control the eastern reaches of the Congo.