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Thailand Slides Toward Civil War

 

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Unable to reassert authority over the hinterland, the old guard seems bent on retaking command through a platform it calls "new politics," which would roll back one-person, one-vote democracy. The PAD, which counts among its supporters retired military officers, opposition political parties and Bangkok's business community, and also enjoys cozy ties with elements of the monarchy, advocates the transformation of Parliament to one dominated by appointed lawmakers because, as PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul told NEWSWEEK a few months ago, the rural masses "lack intelligence and wisdom" to vote responsibly. The group's guards carry guns, knives and explosives and have fought pitched battles with riot police. During the airport siege Sondhi incited his supporters to "shed your blood if that is necessary," telling them: "If you have to die, so be it."

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a foreign-policy specialist at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, says the PAD vision for Thailand is "scarily analogous" to the political system Burma's generals are constructing to perpetuate their own monopoly on power. Rural Thais resent it so viscerally that they're rallying around Thaksin's allies as a point of pride. Upcountry constituencies have steadfastly stuck to their guns by replacing banned lawmakers with loyal pro-Thaksin surrogates. As Banharn Silpa-Archa, leader of the newly dissolved Chart Thai Party, put it last week: "If a husband is banned, his wife or offspring will replace him."

If that pattern holds, Thailand's Parliament will reconvene next week and, under a coalition led by Puea Thai, select the next prime minister from within its ranks. If that happens and "Thaksin's puppet government returns," PAD leader Sondhi has threatened to go back onto the streets and reoccupy airports. The court could still block this by appointing a "national unity" government in defiance of the Constitution, which makes no provision for such a move. This would turn back the clock to when the military imposed martial law back in 2006. But this time around, the pro-Thaksin camp has readied a pressure group of its own, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, which has vowed to take up arms to defend the ruling coalition. Popularly known as the "red shirts," the UDD's rank and file is every bit as thuggish as the PAD's yellow-clad toughs.

The nightmare scenario has color-coded hooligans fighting in the streets even as the monarchy enters its own transition. As Thitinan writes in the Journal of Democracy's current issue: "The setting sun of the King's long reign is the background against which the battle of attrition for Thailand's soul is taking place." That contest, he argues, pits "opposing webs of partisans and vested interests both for and against what Thaksin has done to Thailand." His fear: "What happens after the current king leaves the scene could be the most wrenching crisis yet." Observers are following events closely. "This is not civil war in the way we talk about civil war," says a foreign diplomat in Bangkok. "They're talking about mass unrest, but whether it will happen or not is yet to be determined." The only certainty, it seems, is uncertainty.

© 2008

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  • Posted By: Chumphol @ 04/13/2009 12:31:31 PM

    The scurrent o-called 'Political Chaos' going on in Thailand now stems from a cheating ex-prime minister named Thaksin (a.k.a. thug + sin) who has been fleeing his jail term with enormous dirty money he had been collecting while in high office. Some of his supporters/rioters are (recent) jobless seeking daily pay, some are fools who really see him as the saviour, and many many are willing to share the loot that he robbed off Thailand. It is no political protest, but rather a riot, paid for by Convict Thaksin, who besides a jail term, has many wrong-doing cases in Thai Criminal Court.

    Just like in some countries, Thai people have made a few mistakes for a few bad prime ministers. Still,they don't deserve a criminal ex-prime minister who is so willing to wreak havoc in his own Mother Land. And strange enough, some 'friendly countries' are still comfortable to facilitate him to further damaging the Royal Kingdom of Thailand.

    Help save the world. But not Convict Thaksin, please.

    Chumphol Sirinavin
    Lampang, Thailand

  • Posted By: PatThailand1234 @ 12/19/2008 9:41:03 PM

    And lastly, the PAD is the only thing that is preventing taksin from taking over the country. HIm and his moeny has almost infiltrate every instituiton in thailand (e.g. police, DSI, the parliament, businesses). The PAD is the force that prevent him from doing so and fighting against this evil force without them Taksin would have taken ove Thailand years ago. The PAD is made of people from over thailand (but mainly working, middle and high class), as they're the people who are educated and understand the situation and what is going on in Thailand. They able to make a right and judgemental decision. Do you think educated and rich people will just come out to rally??(from their confortable bed, maids and servants, air conditioning and the multiple luxuries they have at home). They have gathered together as they see this issue as a significant stance and sacrifice they must make for what best and benefit the country most, preventing guys like Taksin from controlling and manipulating us all. Coming out to stage a rally is not illegal by any measure and is part of the democratic process, even though the latest incident in taking over the airport might not be the best way but it's the most effective way for them to be heard and express their opinions. The UDD (pro government/taksin) on the other hand are completely the opposite. They are poor rural people from the country side with limited education. They were lured to their rallied by PPP's MP in exchange for a couple of hundred bath (approx. 500-1000 Bath), free food, free accomidation and a free trip into the big cities. we can call these people mercenaries making deal with the devil. You can see clearly from their appearance and the fact that they only rally for a couple of days and no more than that. After you have read my thought, i hope you can make a judgmental decision from what is right and wrong.

  • Posted By: PatThailand1234 @ 12/19/2008 9:40:17 PM

    w

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