THE TRANSITION

The Anti-Greenspan

Why Obama's new Fed pick may be the most important member of his economic team.

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  • Posted By: del123ores123 @ 01/07/2009 6:26:11 PM

    Am I reading and listening to the same media sources as the person who beleives that the Clinton's are getting more praise and media coverage than President Elect Obama? This must be wishful thinking. President Elect Obama was left with a mess. I am convinced that he will do everything in his power to clean it up. Who cares who it is patterned after. It certainly cannot make matters worst.

  • Posted By: skeeter4419 @ 12/27/2008 5:08:29 PM

    You know ,I have a question. Is this the Obama White house or the Clinton White House ? Who gets most of the coverage or praise is the Clinton's. If we liked their Whitehouse,why didn't we just elect Hillary. Her and Bill seems like they are still the top Dods and Obama is just along for the ride and the free rent.

  • Posted By: jericho4119 @ 12/27/2008 12:40:20 PM

    I love reading comments from an Ayd Rand-acolyte, complaining about not being able to count on the government for there retirement.

    Whatever happened to the courage of your convictions? Even if the government had invested that money with Warren Buffet over the past 40-years, an Objectivist would not take that money, right? An Objectivist would see that money as having been stolen from them by the government; you can't turn around and live off the proceeds of a theft and call yourself holy now, can you?

  • Posted By: Analyst72 @ 12/25/2008 9:45:14 AM

    As long as 'brokers' are paid by the number of loans they sign up (regardless of financial capacity of the borrower), there will be abuses and defaults. Common sense dictates that I only loan to those who can pay back. Nobody actually expected that an intellectually challenged individual such as Dubbya, would have the 2 or 3 gray cells necessary to make the distinction.

  • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 4:28:21 PM

    You???re technically correct, Too late smart, but only technically. The inherently corrupt nature of government's arbitrary regulatory authority over the banking industry is the key here. That regulatory power itself was the leverage the government used to coerce banks into sub-prime lending under CRA. The packaging and selling off of risky mortgages was pioneered by Fannie and Freddie, and later emulated by private firms. But it is not innovative products such as mortgage-backed securities that are at fault here. It is the toxic mortgages that ended up in them. The CRA was instrumental in creating them.

    When the politicians and their bureaucratic allies that have life and death control over your business tell you to do something...you???re going to sit up and take notice. For a non-complier, the government can call down retribution in a myriad of ways, from criminal investigations under antitrust laws, to tax audits, to fraud or discrimination allegations and prosecutions, to merger permission denials, to congressional subpoenas.

    The CRA may not be the primary cause of the crisis, but it is an important piece of the puzzle. When politics, through government???s regulatory powers, mixes with private economic decision-making, the necessary result is corruption of markets. It can be no other way. In the "partnership" between government and business, it's the guy with the gun...the bureaucrat, politician, or businessman with political connections...that wins over private voluntary economic decision-making. Political power works in mysterious, unpredictable, behind-the-scenes ways.

    For example, check out this winter 2000 article in City Journal by Howard Husock, The Trillion Dollar Bank Shakedown that Bodes Ill for Cities, which described the role the Community Reinvestment Act played in the coming meltdown. The predictions here are eerie, but understated. It wasn't just cities that got infected, but the whole country, thanks to the upcoming inflationary monetary policies of the Greenspan-Bernanke Fed.

    http://www.city-journal.org/html/10_1_the_trillion_dollar.html

    • Posted By: Too late smart @ 12/21/2008 5:00:40 PM

      Zemack: you need a sense of humor. You might have put in an ethnic joke about people who live in ghettos. The fact is people will pay their rent or mortgage before buying food. Any landlord can tell you that.. Now speculators and people who own more than one home can and do default often on million dollars loans. I am glad that you agree with me that it has been the schoolyard bullies that have been making the rules recently.

      • Posted By: Too late smart @ 12/21/2008 6:05:45 PM

        Democracy and I suppose any other system needs certain quantities of intelligence and altrualism to not fail. An Ann Rand utopia has to have a Titan but what is more likely is a Hitler or a Stalin. Maybe Greenspan was lucky for twenty years. The CRA was not criticized for forty years. Social Security has been called a Ponzi scene for seventy years maybe by Ann Rand.

        • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 7:13:39 PM

          Too late smart, it's Ayn (rhymes with mine), not Ann. You should really familiarize yourself with Ayn Rand and Objectivism, so you don???t make uninformed comments like your "Titan" statement. A rights-protecting government under laissez-faire capitalism, which leaves everyone free to live their lives free from the initiation of physical force, makes utopian dictators like Stalin and Hitler impossible.

          By the way, Social Security IS a Ponzi scheme. My wife and I have contributed over $300 K over our working lives, according to our S.S. statements, which means that if that money was placed into a personal investment account earning a reasonable rate of return, we would have probably three quarters of a million bucks to start drawing on in a few years. Instead, that money was spent or sent to other retirees. Now, when we begin to collect, we will have to depend on future workers' taxes to collect on our contributions. If that is not a Ponzi scheme, then there is no such thing.

          • Posted By: RO in Reno @ 12/24/2008 11:53:30 PM

            Social Security became a ponzi scheme thanks to Reagan who made the funds available to the general account by deregulating it. The money you (and I) put in has been spent with only an IOU than no one can find or own up to.
            As a result it is the next generation who will be paying the paltry sum you (and I) will receive.
            The figure I got was 3.8 trillion has gone elsewhere,
            Vote for a Republican and kissyour retirement good by.

      • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 6:55:03 PM

        I'll leave the ethnic jokes to you. That's not my style. Plenty of low-income folks continue to pay their mortgages on time. The sub-prime crisis spread to all income groups because banks that jumped into that game had to offer them to everyone, due to anti-discrimination statutes. Many banks did so enthusiastically, such as Mazzilo's Countrywide. As I said, CRA did not cause the crisis, but is a piece of a complex puzzle.

  • Posted By: Too late smart @ 12/21/2008 3:16:41 PM

    Any kindergarten teacher knows that there must be rules on the playground. Any good teacher knows that the rules should be fair. The last several years in the big playground in Lower Manhattan any rules there were made by bullies and wise guys. Some of them will be getting a time out of about five years in Club Fed.

    • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 5:43:28 PM

      Under laissez-faire capitalism, the rules are fair because they are based upon objective law designed to fulfill government???s proper role of protecting individual rights equally, for everyone, at all times. This includes the right of consenting adults to contract freely and voluntarily to mutual advantage free from coercive interference by government. Government's role is to protect those contractual rights, via vigorous prosecution of fraud, enforcement of those contracts, and mediation of contractual disputes.

      Your schoolyard bully analogy perfectly describes our mixed economy, where the "rules" are always changing based upon the whims of power-wielding bureaucrats, politicians, and the politically connected special interests of the moment. Rand describes our mixed economy as "...rule by pressure groups. It is an amoral, institutionalized civil war of special interests and lobbies, all fighting to seize a momentary control of the legislative machinery, to extort some special privilege at one another???s expense by an act of government???i.e., by force." Check out her full description of our mixed economy:

      http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/mixedeconomy.html

      The current crisis occurred in a mixed economy (a government of men), not a laissez-faire one (a government of laws).

  • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 11:16:34 AM

    The reference to Dan Tarullo as a "pro-regulation virus" is ingenious..,and perfectly apt. Government economic regulation IS a virus, and the cause of the current crisis is a whole swarm of such viruses having evolved over past years and decades. The resulting infections have made for a very sick patient.

    In a free, unregulated, "uninfected" market:

    *There is no central bank with monopoly power over money creation, interest rates, or to act as lender of last resort. An unregulated financial industry under the control of a government-imposed central bank is a logical impossibility.

    *There are no government-created, politically pressured quasi-private GSEs like Fannie and Freddie, buying up untold $billions in unsound mortgages originated by imprudent private lenders and borrowers, for packaging and resale to the public with implicit government guarantees of safety.

    *There is no Community Reinvestment Act to impose "flexible lending standards" in order to guarantee an alleged "right" to homeownership.

    *There is no federal deposit "insurance" or government mortgage guarantees to encourage excessive lending risk, discourage prudent banking, and shift liability for bad banking to government, i.e., taxpayers.

    *There is no excessive, artificial money creation (inflation) engineered by a central bank unconstrained by a gold standard to fuel asset bubbles such as the house-price explosion of the past number of years, which amounted to gasoline being poured onto a raging sub-prime fire.

    *There is no government-imposed mark-to-market accounting rule (imposed under Sarbanes-Oxley, the disastrous regulatory law, passed after the Enron scandals, that punished the thousands of innocent companies that DIDN'T cook the books). Under mark-to-market, which Steve Forbes calls an accounting "weapon of mass destruction", many sound financial institutions with positive cash flow and mostly performing mortgages were driven into artificial insolvency "requiring" a government bailout. This may be the greatest "insider trading" scheme in history.

    *Profits are privatized, as they should be, BUT SO ARE LOSSES, as they most certainly should be. Profit and loss, or risk and reward, are the countervailing market forces that work to the advantage of prudence long term. The socialization of risk and loss brought about by government intervention severed that connection, unleashing the quick-buck artists on a massive scale.

    *Banks are not shielded from bankruptcy.

    • Posted By: Too late smart @ 12/21/2008 2:35:03 PM

      There is nothing in the Community Reinvestment Act requiring lenders to leverage and sell off mortgages. When it was found out that lending in the previously red-lined neighborhoods was profitable they pushed that business beyond all reason valuations went up. When the mortgagers lost jobs in the ressession, well you know what happened then.

  • Posted By: Zemack @ 12/21/2008 11:17:32 AM

    PART 2:

    I could go on and on here. The private lenders and borrowers of bad mortgages, and any fraudsters that may have operated, are just the superficial face of the financial debacle. Their irresponsible behavior need not be excused to understand that it was taking place within the context of a myriad of market-distorting government interventions, which DOES NOT constitute laissez-faire in any way, shape, or form.

    Any semblance of a free market in finance, housing, and the mortgage market have long since disappeared behind decades of ever-growing government efforts to "encourage" homeownership. The veritable conveyor belt of imprudent credit expansion revolving around the housing bubble is a creation of government, and wouldn???t have been able to remotely approach today's levels in a free market. In a free market, bad private financial practices are regularly weeded out by bankruptcy, foreclosure, and investment losses long before they can infect the entire system. The common denominator of the entire financial crisis is the government.

    This massive financial crisis represents the collapse of a heavily regulated and controlled financial industry operating in a housing and mortgage sector beset by massive government intervention. It is not a failure of a non-existent free market. The alleged "deregulation" is no such thing. There can be no deregulation as long as the government retains its market-distorting regulatory powers, WHETHER OR NOT it happens to have exercised them in some particular way or not (as the scapegoat-seeking Greenspan well knows). The pseudo-deregulation blamed for the crisis is just a rationalization for expanded government control over the economy, to the detriment of individual rights.

    As to the continuing efforts to discredit Rand and Objectivism by linking them to Greenspan, it's getting old, and it won???t work. Ideas cannot be refuted without openly confronting them, something Rand's detractors steadfastly refuse to do. Any link between Greenspan and Objectivism has long since been severed when Greenspan accepted the job of monetary dictator in 1987.

  • Posted By: brydges @ 12/20/2008 11:45:08 AM

    It's risk verses prosperity. With more regulation the chances and impcact of a meltdown decrease, so does economic potential. America's lack of government oversight has made us the superpower we are and put us in a higher risk catagory then other governments. More oversight may prevent further econic crisises (though not guarenteed) but also makes us more reliable on th government. If we have to rely on the government who can't balance a budget to make every economic decision we are all doomed

  • Posted By: jarcher1 @ 12/20/2008 9:17:16 AM

    Mr. Kellard, I don't follow the logic here. Banking, housing, insurance, stock markets are most heavily regulated regulated markets. Regulations are to prevent a meltdown. A meltdown is occurring. The most that can be concluded from this is that regulation (or the regulations in place) are insufficient to prevent a meltdown, not that regulation caused the meltdown. Because said meltdown occurs at the same time as markets are regulated is not sufficient to establish as causal link, or as millions of freshmen at colleges and universities have discovered "correlation is not causation."

  • Posted By: JosephKellard @ 12/20/2008 7:21:01 AM

    As I asserted in my original post, banking, housing and insurance have long been *the most* regulated areas of the economy, yet LasVegsLaw claims that it was a *lack* of regulation, including on Wall Street -- another highly regulated market -- that caused the economic meltdown. Thus he believes even more regulations are needed in already heavily-regulated markets.

    His solution is, quite simply, more of the same irrationality that got us into this mess. At what point do those who cry for more regulations face the reality that if regulations are designed to stop the defrauders and the financial meltdowns, then why are we seeing more of these cases at the same time we *add* more and more regulations? You???d think they???d see some kind of pattern here, but they don???t subscribe to the law of cause and effect. And due to this evasion, they regard the stock market as nothing more than ???gambling.???

  • Posted By: LasVegsLaw @ 12/20/2008 6:07:50 AM

    Mr. Kellerd's assertion tha"[T]the econimic meltdown in the U.S. was essentially caused by government intervention and regulation, not lack thereof." I assume he is referring to the impetus by government going back to the Clinton administration to "relax" lending standards so that more people could acquire homes. I either case his assertion is pure poppycock.

    The securities industry spends a fortune bolstering the public image that putting money into the stock market, bond markets, commodities markets and othes is "INVESTING". Those of us who have any real finacial and econimic expertise (I am a CPA,1970/MBA,1971) understand that the securities markets are just a form of gambling. The public relations is keep bringing in the new suckers for the pros (investment bankers, hedge funds, bank trading rooms and like) to pick over. I live in Las Vegas and have served in executive management in the casino industry. Everyone knows the casinos ALWAYS win. EVERY casino protects itself by setting a house limit for the maximum bet at every type of game. The is called "Risk Management" Brokerages and banks are supposed to have risk managers and risk management guidelines. The reason for the current economic meltdown is that these institutions and specifically those that regulate them failed to set any kind of reasonable risk management standards for, not only credit extension, but the insurance of those risks now know as completely unregulated Credit Swap Derrivatives that our government regulators REFUSED to regulate in the face of dire warnings of what eventually did happen could happen.

    Once the credit extensions reached a default level that was fully predictable, unless you assumed that housing prices would absolutley continute to increase forever in the face of the historical data of the US housing markets (think 1991), we all came to find out that the vast majority of major financial institutions were so unreasonably leveraged the did not hold the liquidity to meet their credit swap obligations (thats the counter-party). Then these institutions became afraid to lend even to each other and the credit markets froze, and have not substantially thawed.

    It is the lact of regulation and intervention, not the opposite, that puts us in the situation we are today.

  • Posted By: LasVegsLaw @ 12/20/2008 6:07:27 AM

    Mr. Kellerd's assertion tha"[T]the econimic meltdown in the U.S. was essentially caused by government intervention and regulation, not lack thereof." I assume he is referring to the impetus by government going back to the Clinton administration to "relax" lending standards so that more people could acquire homes. I either case his assertion is pure poppycock.

    The securities industry spends a fortune bolstering the public image that putting money into the stock market, bond markets, commodities markets and othes is "INVESTING". Those of us who have any real finacial and econimic expertise (I am a CPA,1970/MBA,1971) understand that the securities markets are just a form of gambling. The public relations is keep bringing in the new suckers for the pros (investment bankers, hedge funds, bank trading rooms and like) to pick over. I live in Las Vegas and have served in executive management in the casino industry. Everyone knows the casinos ALWAYS win. EVERY casino protects itself by setting a house limit for the maximum bet at every type of game. The is called "Risk Management" Brokerages and banks are supposed to have risk managers and risk management guidelines. The reason for the current economic meltdown is that these institutions and specifically those that regulate them failed to set any kind of reasonable risk management standards for, not only credit extension, but the insurance of those risks now know as completely unregulated Credit Swap Derrivatives that our government regulators REFUSED to regulate in the face of dire warnings of what eventually did happen could happen.

    Once the credit extensions reached a default level that was fully predictable, unless you assumed that housing prices would absolutley continute to increase forever in the face of the historical data of the US housing markets (think 1991), we all came to find out that the vast majority of major financial institutions were so unreasonably leveraged the did not hold the liquidity to meet their credit swap obligations (thats the counter-party). Then these institutions became afraid to lend even to each other and the credit markets froze, and have not substantially thawed.

    It is the lact of regulation and intervention, not the opposite, that puts us in the situation we are today.

  • Posted By: JosephKellard @ 12/20/2008 5:30:23 AM

    The economic meltdown in the U.S. was essentially caused by government intervention and regulations, not their lack thereof. For many years now, banking, housing and insurance have been the most regulated areas of the economy.

    As to Mr. Greenspan, the philosophy he put into practice is the opposite of capitalism. Back in the 1960s, Ayn Rand taught him why capitalism requires that there be a wall of separation between economics and state, and why the Federal Reserve, as the state???s central economic planner, must be abolished. Yet Greenspan went on to become the Fed's leader and champion -- keeping interest rates artificially low and manipulating the money supply. So he long ago rejected Miss Rand's philosophy of Objectivism -- and now he and all of us are paying the price for it.

    JOSEPH KELLARD
    East Meadow, NY

  • Posted By: JosephKellard @ 12/20/2008 5:30:00 AM

    The economic meltdown in the U.S. was essentially caused by government intervention and regulations, not their lack thereof. For many years now, banking, housing and insurance have been the most regulated areas of the economy.

    As to Mr. Greenspan, the philosophy he put into practice is the opposite of capitalism. Back in the 1960s, Ayn Rand taught him why capitalism requires that there be a wall of separation between economics and state, and why the Federal Reserve, as the state???s central economic planner, must be abolished. Yet Greenspan went on to become the Fed's leader and champion -- keeping interest rates artificially low and manipulating the money supply. So he long ago rejected Miss Rand's philosophy of Objectivism -- and now he and all of us are paying the price for it.

    JOSEPH KELLARD
    East Meadow, NY

  • Posted By: kfhoz @ 12/19/2008 8:14:58 PM

    The Greenspan model definitely does not work when bankers get all the upside from risk taking and taxpayers take the downside.

  • Posted By: INTUITE @ 12/19/2008 4:42:37 PM

    Regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate, regulate.

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