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How to restore confidence? It's not as easy as it sounds. After all, George W. Bush has pretty consistently projected an air of confidence, one that tends to get people even more worried than they need to be. Perhaps this is because Bush's calm often seems utterly disconnected from the realities around him; he appears thoroughly unaware of the facts on the ground, whether in Iraq, Louisiana or Afghanistan. Like Bush, Franklin Roosevelt also projected optimism, but he took great pains to recognize and describe the depth of the difficulties the country faced. In his first fireside chat, Roosevelt explained the basics of banking to the American people and then asked for their help in getting the system working again. "It is your problem no less than mine," he said, enlisting them in the cause at hand.

The next step is to give people a sense that the financial system is stable and predictable. Swensen, who after Warren Buffett is perhaps the most successful investor in recent decades, argues that this has been the crucial flaw in the Bush administration's actions. "Markets need certainty and predictability," he says. "And the administration's actions have actually increased uncertainty and unpredictability. Its measures have been ad hoc, its response to each institution has been different, its reasoning has been opaque—all this creates confusion, and that drives capital away." Swensen's own solution is a simple and systemic one: have the government guarantee all money-market funds, with no limits, for six months. He argues that the government has to eliminate some degree of risk in order to get people to borrow and lend again. "Right now the government is not facilitating private capital flows; it is substituting for private capital flows. That doesn't solve anything."

The final way that Obama can create confidence is to reform the system itself. His administration will inherit a government that has taken on an extraordinary set of obligations in the private sector—ownership in banks, guarantees of commercial debts, loans to the automobile industry. Carefully retreating from these obligations to restore a market economy will be as complex an exit strategy as the one from Iraq. But if Obama is able to reform government rules and regulation—and thus the American economy—it will give people around the world renewed confidence in the American system. It was only after Japan was able to put in place a new system of tough auditing, after all, that its own banking crisis abated.

Obama will find many dire challenges in his inbox, but none—not Iraq, not Russia, not Pakistan, China, Afghanistan—is as important as this one huge task: to restore confidence, certainty and reform to America. It's a lot easier said than done. But if he manages to pull it off, people might well start wondering whether Barack Obama has some supernatural powers after all.

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: zeeplatinum @ 05/27/2009 6:30:42 PM

    Nagberi. Obama you have not only made Dr Martin Luther King Jr 's dream a reality but have also shown the world that America is a country that really recognize democracy and freedom for everyone no matter your race, religion or culture. The road to recovery is long and together we will make. God bless America.

  • Posted By: polscigirl @ 02/16/2009 5:04:53 AM

    Will he be a fox or a lion? Sometimes a leader's "charisma" can also be his downfall...

  • Posted By: pgadia @ 01/12/2009 12:17:54 AM

    Charisma is not a factor in world event but can be a smoke screen from someone who don't have the heart to lead. Our world leaders must have the hearts to care and compassion to help, instead of just being a leader and be part of the world elite. The world needs someone who can strech their hands to help and have the conviction to lead us to into a better future. Politicians pick their straws that can help them win more votes for the next election and charisma can be a help to be voted again, but a true leader is evident from the good conviction of the heart.

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