Urban-rural dichotomy too simplistic. Over the New Year, Bangkok was almost a ghost town as residents flocked back to their countryside homes and villages. Rich-poor divide also too simplistic. Thaksin and his family are part of the moneyed elite. Thaksin, a police colonel, amassed his fortunes through exploiting elite connections and state monopolies. Leading a revolt of the poor? Looks more like cynical manipulation to maintain political power. The 'massive electoral majorities' his party put together was through coopting local political bosses and patrons who always get elected whichever party they belong to. The defection of 30 of these MPs to the opposition Democrats led to the formation of a new government thus making it not much of an improvement. Yes, the poor and rural farmers need more help, but billionaire Thaksin and his band of corrupt cronies out for their own enrichment are not the saviours that they need.
Northern Exposure
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Aorapin Timan runs a large crafts and souvenir shop in Bosang Bazaar in San Kampaeng, outside Chiang Mai. She parlayed the business from the days when her mother took a loan provided through the Thaksin government and set up a mobile stand selling dry goods, fruit, meat, instant noodles and such. "During Chuan's government, I did not have even 10,000 baht (about $300) in my pocket," she says, referring to former prime minister Chuan Leekpai of the Democrat Party. "Thaksin set up projects that helped poor people. That's a fact. It was not just about handing out a few baht."
As heir to Chuan, Abhisit Vejjajiva inherits the antipathy many in the north and northeast feel toward the Democrats. Educated in Britain, Abhisit is 44, ostensibly new blood in Thailand's turgid politics. But he is also the scion of the country's oldest political party, a center-right, pro-business, pro-military, royalist organization most popular in Bangkok and the south. For many Thais, he represents the old vested interests that ran Thailand for decades and that appear eager to roll back the populist gains of the Thaksin era and return the country to the urban oligarchies that dominated politics and business for decades.
Dismissed by some as a stiff Cambridge Brahmin, Abhisit is telegenic, bright and urbane—qualities that should appeal to a citizenry weary of the country's cacophonous politics, usual-suspect list of aging politicians and ambitious military commanders quick to launch coups and suspend constitutions. But he displays little of the common touch or instincts of Thaksin, who despite being fantastically rich somehow persuaded the masses that he felt their pain. Where Thaksin was able to deftly co-opt rival politicians, Abhisit's deal with former aide Newin Chidchob to form a new government has drawn cries of treachery and opportunism. It did not help when Newin was widely quoted suggesting to Abhisit that he could make the northeast forget Thaksin by "dishing" billions of Thai baht into the region. The comment appeared to perpetuate the idea that rural people can be bought as well as emphasize the challenge the fledgling P.M. faces in the north and northeast.
In Chiang Mai, some business people also find the handout charges offensive. "If someone says money can buy people's support, OK, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi is one of the richest men in the world," says Pechawat Wattanapongsirigul, referring to the liquor magnate who brews the country's popular Chang beer. "Let him come as a candidate and pay each person in the north 10,000 baht and you'd see he still could not win." Pechawat owns the Warorot Grand Dame Place hotel in the city's Prasingha district, where red shirts recently gathered to hear speakers excoriate the PAD and the Democrats. "People up here are humans, not dogs," he says.
Because they revere the king, northerners revile the PAD's attack tactics and its branding of them as antimonarchy. This is a country where almost no Thai will countenance a slight against the monarch, let alone commit one. "I love the king!" declared all those NEWSWEEK interviewed, from farmers to street merchants to political firebrands. Even people who wonder why the palace did not intervene to stop the PAD from occupying Bangkok's two biggest airports voice no criticism of any royal. And outrage bubbles up about the PAD's tactic of wearing yellow—the king's color.
Thaksin supporters see the appropriation of the monarch's standard as a crass political ploy. "The PAD is trying to keep Thai people divided," says Aorapin Timan, the souvenir merchant. "Now it is red against yellow." Abhisit, whose party some already regard as colluding with the PAD, will need to reach out quickly to disaffected Thais in the north and northeast. He currently has an opening, as some red-shirt leaders have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Rural constituents complain that administrations since Thaksin's have pretty much abandoned the programs he instituted. Reintroducing elements of Thaksinomics could be a shrewd way to attract support. It does not appear, meanwhile, that Abhisit will seek to amend the constitution to disenfranchise the rural poor—a move that almost certainly would stoke unrest around the country.
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