Urban-rural dichotomy too simplistic. Over the New Year, Bangkok was almost a ghost town as residents flocked back to their countryside homes and villages. Rich-poor divide also too simplistic. Thaksin and his family are part of the moneyed elite. Thaksin, a police colonel, amassed his fortunes through exploiting elite connections and state monopolies. Leading a revolt of the poor? Looks more like cynical manipulation to maintain political power. The 'massive electoral majorities' his party put together was through coopting local political bosses and patrons who always get elected whichever party they belong to. The defection of 30 of these MPs to the opposition Democrats led to the formation of a new government thus making it not much of an improvement. Yes, the poor and rural farmers need more help, but billionaire Thaksin and his band of corrupt cronies out for their own enrichment are not the saviours that they need.
Northern Exposure
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The new prime minister must preside over a country as divided as the United States was after the 2000 presidential election. He begins on a less-than-secure note as a man who benefited from a deck seemingly stacked against Thaksin's allies; as a man who may have been sympathetic to a group, the PAD, bent on limiting the country's democracy; and as a man who is looked upon favorably by the military. Thailand now sits on a number of fault lines—a once vibrant economy buffeted by the global economic meltdown and internal disarray, a stability long buttressed by a revered monarch that's now in question as he ages, the urban middle and upper classes arrayed against the rural poor, Bangkok and the south aligned against the north and northeast, red shirts facing off with yellow shirts, people determined to take out Thaksin versus others bent on restoring him to a legitimate and important role in Thai politics.
For now the red shirts and yellow shirts are hunkered down, watching developments but planning their strategies. Kwanchai Pripana, the UDD leader in Udon Thani, says he is following the actions of the prime minister. "We will not move on Bangkok, because if we do something right now other people watching will judge the red shirts as stupid and aggressive," he tells NEWSWEEK. The country watches, meanwhile, to see if the PAD will suffer any repercussions for occupying Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports as well as Government House, and causing the nation's economy to shed almost $150 billion.
Chaturon Chaisang, a former leader of Thai Rak Thai, says the PAD's goal for Thailand is "a tiny group of 'good' people self-selected to run the country." The UDD says it will not stand by and see such a system installed. The question now for the country's latest government is how it will prevent Thailand from descending into the kind of chaos that would make recent demonstrations seem like mild, Gandhian sit-ins.
© 2008
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