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Economist Robert Shiller
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The One Who Saw It Coming

Robert Shiller forecast the credit crisis for the right reasons, and has a novel idea for how to fix it.

 

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Robert Shiller is one of a handful of economists who have been feted for foreseeing the credit crisis, but he is the only one who predicted it for the right reasons. New York University's Nouriel Roubini, now known as "Dr. Doom," warned as early as 2006 of an imminent housing crash that would stop America's consumer-spending spree and lead to severe recession. Another über-bear, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, had warned for years that the weakening dollar and the U.S. trade deficit with China were signs of a dangerously imbalanced global economy, doomed to fall. While both deserve credit for highlighting weaknesses that others ignored, neither had much to say about the real reasons for the current state of affairs, namely the vast amount of speculation that took place in the financial world linked to home mortgages.

Shiller did. Long before the extent of the subprime-mortgage crisis was evident, Shiller predicted that home prices would fall more rapidly than any models had predicted and that financial markets globally would be upended as a result. A specialist in the management of risk, he recognized that the real-estate bubble in the United States and parts of Europe represented, above all, a failure to manage risk. Now Shiller, a Yale professor who first made his name by accurately forecasting the stock-market collapse of 2001, is alone again, this time in his prescription for what needs to be done to stabilize credit markets in the future.

Most experts will tell you that Barack Obama needs to move quickly to contain the multitrillion-dollar market that turned low-quality mortgages into high-priced derivatives, the Wall Street innovation now widely blamed for the credit crisis. Shiller says the opposite. He argues that unless the central issue of risk is addressed, all the money that governments are pouring into financial rescues won't prevent another, potentially worse financial crisis down the line. In Shiller's view, derivatives "are a risk management tool much the same way insurance is. You pay a premium and if an event happens, you get a payment." His radical answer to our problems is that trying to leash financial innovation is hopeless, and that we should instead push forward into a brave new world where derivatives become as common as cash.

What separates Shiller from the majority of economists is his lack of faith in the "efficient-market hypothesis." That belief, which also guides the hand of most money managers, holds that the market will price assets according to their fundamental value and that those prices reflect all pertinent information. Shiller instead follows those, like John Kenneth Galbraith, who hold that market prices reflect "animal spirits" and popular passions, not perfect information.

That is why bubbles form, and that, for Shiller, is why financial innovation and government regulation are imperative. Pressure has been building in Washington to crack down on the complex derivatives that were structured on toxic mortgages, especially given the scale of global capital flows and trillions of transactions facilitated by computer models and electronic communications. Barney Frank, the powerful chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has talked of finding ways to force financial companies to become more risk-averse. Similar measures are being considered in Europe and Asia.

The reaction is understandable. Each financial crisis results in a backlash against what caused it. The Securities and Exchange Commission was established in 1934 after the perceived excesses of markets in the 1920s, and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed in 2002 after the spectacular frauds of Enron and WorldCom. While he is in general support of more regulation, Shiller is convinced that the move to restrict derivatives and risk is misguided. In "The Subprime Solution," which he wrote just as the system was beginning to implode, he says that what is needed now is the next stage of financial innovation, not constriction. "Risk management is not the prevention of risky behavior," he told me. "It is carrying it through to its logical end in order to actually make it happen."

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 8:13:10 AM

    Space is limited please request free copy of the plan via email....bestsolutionsfl@aol.com.Thanks


    Problem solved: All homes become owner occupied.All housing supply will be eliminated by demand,created by those who wish to stay in their homes(85%) and by new homeowners (15% foreclosed or rented,Investor owned) because of the extremely low affordable rates.

    ACTION:Solve Trillions of dollars crisis at no cost to the taxpayers,and allowing for a tax payer profit.
    RESOLVED:ALL "underwater" loans and foreclosed homes to be purchased at 110% of FAIR MARKET VALUE.Loan to be marked "paid-in-full"This is a one time deal and could be done in 6 months are less.As allowed by Freddie and Fannie as part of their interest in securing mortgages and new condition for banks if they desire any federal help.
    PURCHASE to be made with the use of 10 Year US Treasury Notes at 2.7%.NOTES will be given as payment in full.
    Legislation is already in place for GSE agency to do this and also funding is already approved (TARP).
    NEW LOAN: is a special "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" loan
    A 10 Year loan that has fixed payments (120) with payment number 121 (the magic bullet) ...... paying the balance in full.Because of the low cost of the funding(12/31/08 @ 2.08%)now @ 2.6% with the special long term payback this will be a very affordable payback.
    TERMS FOR THE NEW LOAN:120 fixed, low, and affordable monthly payments that consists of........
    ........... (A) payment of total interest; (B)15% of principal ; (C)15% for taxes and insurance.
    This is a total payment ,known as P.I.T.I.
    MAGIC BULLET:Payment number 121..the new 30 year mortgage.. is given by a third party lender to the owner at a fixed prevailing rate,for the 85% balance.IF A TAXPAYER PROFIT IS DESIRED AT 5%,then the 30 year is to be 90% of the original new loan.(If 3 Trillion needed that's 150 Billion profit).
    Example:$100,000 "EVERYBODY WINS LOAN"
    LOAN AMOUNT $100,000 with payments to include:
    A...Total 10 years interest............... $27,000
    B...15% for principle reduction........ .$15,000
    C..15%..TAXES and INSURANCE.....$15,000
    TOTAL.......................................................$57.000
    paid by 120 fixed equal payments of $475.00 each...... (wow, how affordable is a $100,000 mortgage
    at a total P.I.T.I. payment of $475.00 per month???)Then the 10 year treasury bond is paid-in-full since a new 30 year fixed mortgage is acquired for the $85,000 balance.NOTE: if taxpayer profit is desired then the new 30 year loan is for $90,000.
    To calculate payment for 10 year portion use a factor of 4.75 per $1,000.
    Example:, if loan amount is $250,000;payments of $1187.50
    ($250 X 4.75 = TOTAL PITI FOR A HOME VALUE OF $250,000
    at an unbelievabe low $1187.50
    REPEAT: Extremely affordable.It is total payment...P.I.T.I.
    You need to get the full plan because in order to solve the lenders side a lender is given a loan to replace "out of the money " portion

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 7:59:35 AM

    In his latest book "Subprime Solution" I believe, Shiller called for a fast solution,that would allow time for a solution to prevent re-occurance and dole out justice.
    I would like everyone to CHANGE,CHALLENGE OR ENDORSE "THE EVERYBODY WINS PLANS"
    Contact information: Carmen Basilovecchio
    Best Solutions Fl Real Estate
    9804 S Military Trail E-10
    Boynton Beach, Fl 33436
    561-738-5188


    THANK YOU
    PLEASE
    Change it,
    Challenge It
    or Endorse it.PASS IT ON

    A SOLUTION TO THE HOUSING MORTGAGE CRISIS with accountable Bank Funding at NO COST to the taxpayers. By using the 1930's method,i.e., lower interest rates with a longer payback period.The ranch had to be paid for with a 5 year mortgage,till someone created the 25 year mortgage.

    Using today's rates and knowledge,the entire inventory of troubled homes will become EXTREMELY AFFORDABLE and thereby
    AAA and 100% asset based.At no cost to the taxpayer and an option for a profit to the taxpayers.

    A special 10 year year mortgage with an automatic 30 year mortgage that includes
    PRINCIPAL
    INTEREST
    TAXES and
    INSURANCE.

    PER $100,000 loan there would be a total fixed 10 yr. PITI payment of
    .........$475........PITI with a 30 year fixed principal and interest payment of around $510 to $540.
    FOR HOMEOWNERS;
    Let them stay in their homes,
    Let them be able to afford it,
    and be able to manage it.
    THIS IS THE REAL AMERICAN DREAM.
    Help the 8% that have made this nightmare and thereby turn this challenge into a greater good for all.Re-establishing "CREDARE" .Faith in the American people,that we are credit worthy and will clean up this mess made by GREED.
    This is a fast and great solution to the problem and it allows for time
    to fix the blame and to do what is nessecary for future prevention.

  • Posted By: Amanda Lauren @ 01/16/2009 1:13:12 AM

    He's not the only one who saw it coming- Ask eccentric mogul, Charlie Large who came out with a board game providing insight to teachers and students (and consumers next month at Toy Fair). Large's board game, although lacks the quick wit and poetic appeal, he offers society a way to get their "black card" by upgrading wisely on their credit and truly provides a a way for people to experience credit in the 'right' world- the gaming world that is prior to heading into the real world before it is too late! http://www.ChargeLargeGame.com - Consumers get ready, it will be in stores soon enough after Debut at Toy Fair - For Colleges and High Schools- you're probably on the waiting list already for the creator's "Charge Large Responsibly Tour"

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