FORECASTERS

The One Who Saw It Coming

Robert Shiller forecast the credit crisis for the right reasons, and has a novel idea for how to fix it.

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  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 8:13:10 AM

    Space is limited please request free copy of the plan via email....bestsolutionsfl@aol.com.Thanks


    Problem solved: All homes become owner occupied.All housing supply will be eliminated by demand,created by those who wish to stay in their homes(85%) and by new homeowners (15% foreclosed or rented,Investor owned) because of the extremely low affordable rates.

    ACTION:Solve Trillions of dollars crisis at no cost to the taxpayers,and allowing for a tax payer profit.
    RESOLVED:ALL "underwater" loans and foreclosed homes to be purchased at 110% of FAIR MARKET VALUE.Loan to be marked "paid-in-full"This is a one time deal and could be done in 6 months are less.As allowed by Freddie and Fannie as part of their interest in securing mortgages and new condition for banks if they desire any federal help.
    PURCHASE to be made with the use of 10 Year US Treasury Notes at 2.7%.NOTES will be given as payment in full.
    Legislation is already in place for GSE agency to do this and also funding is already approved (TARP).
    NEW LOAN: is a special "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" loan
    A 10 Year loan that has fixed payments (120) with payment number 121 (the magic bullet) ...... paying the balance in full.Because of the low cost of the funding(12/31/08 @ 2.08%)now @ 2.6% with the special long term payback this will be a very affordable payback.
    TERMS FOR THE NEW LOAN:120 fixed, low, and affordable monthly payments that consists of........
    ........... (A) payment of total interest; (B)15% of principal ; (C)15% for taxes and insurance.
    This is a total payment ,known as P.I.T.I.
    MAGIC BULLET:Payment number 121..the new 30 year mortgage.. is given by a third party lender to the owner at a fixed prevailing rate,for the 85% balance.IF A TAXPAYER PROFIT IS DESIRED AT 5%,then the 30 year is to be 90% of the original new loan.(If 3 Trillion needed that's 150 Billion profit).
    Example:$100,000 "EVERYBODY WINS LOAN"
    LOAN AMOUNT $100,000 with payments to include:
    A...Total 10 years interest............... $27,000
    B...15% for principle reduction........ .$15,000
    C..15%..TAXES and INSURANCE.....$15,000
    TOTAL.......................................................$57.000
    paid by 120 fixed equal payments of $475.00 each...... (wow, how affordable is a $100,000 mortgage
    at a total P.I.T.I. payment of $475.00 per month???)Then the 10 year treasury bond is paid-in-full since a new 30 year fixed mortgage is acquired for the $85,000 balance.NOTE: if taxpayer profit is desired then the new 30 year loan is for $90,000.
    To calculate payment for 10 year portion use a factor of 4.75 per $1,000.
    Example:, if loan amount is $250,000;payments of $1187.50
    ($250 X 4.75 = TOTAL PITI FOR A HOME VALUE OF $250,000
    at an unbelievabe low $1187.50
    REPEAT: Extremely affordable.It is total payment...P.I.T.I.
    You need to get the full plan because in order to solve the lenders side a lender is given a loan to replace "out of the money " portion

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 7:59:35 AM

    In his latest book "Subprime Solution" I believe, Shiller called for a fast solution,that would allow time for a solution to prevent re-occurance and dole out justice.
    I would like everyone to CHANGE,CHALLENGE OR ENDORSE "THE EVERYBODY WINS PLANS"
    Contact information: Carmen Basilovecchio
    Best Solutions Fl Real Estate
    9804 S Military Trail E-10
    Boynton Beach, Fl 33436
    561-738-5188


    THANK YOU
    PLEASE
    Change it,
    Challenge It
    or Endorse it.PASS IT ON

    A SOLUTION TO THE HOUSING MORTGAGE CRISIS with accountable Bank Funding at NO COST to the taxpayers. By using the 1930's method,i.e., lower interest rates with a longer payback period.The ranch had to be paid for with a 5 year mortgage,till someone created the 25 year mortgage.

    Using today's rates and knowledge,the entire inventory of troubled homes will become EXTREMELY AFFORDABLE and thereby
    AAA and 100% asset based.At no cost to the taxpayer and an option for a profit to the taxpayers.

    A special 10 year year mortgage with an automatic 30 year mortgage that includes
    PRINCIPAL
    INTEREST
    TAXES and
    INSURANCE.

    PER $100,000 loan there would be a total fixed 10 yr. PITI payment of
    .........$475........PITI with a 30 year fixed principal and interest payment of around $510 to $540.
    FOR HOMEOWNERS;
    Let them stay in their homes,
    Let them be able to afford it,
    and be able to manage it.
    THIS IS THE REAL AMERICAN DREAM.
    Help the 8% that have made this nightmare and thereby turn this challenge into a greater good for all.Re-establishing "CREDARE" .Faith in the American people,that we are credit worthy and will clean up this mess made by GREED.
    This is a fast and great solution to the problem and it allows for time
    to fix the blame and to do what is nessecary for future prevention.

  • Posted By: Amanda Lauren @ 01/16/2009 1:13:12 AM

    He's not the only one who saw it coming- Ask eccentric mogul, Charlie Large who came out with a board game providing insight to teachers and students (and consumers next month at Toy Fair). Large's board game, although lacks the quick wit and poetic appeal, he offers society a way to get their "black card" by upgrading wisely on their credit and truly provides a a way for people to experience credit in the 'right' world- the gaming world that is prior to heading into the real world before it is too late! http://www.ChargeLargeGame.com - Consumers get ready, it will be in stores soon enough after Debut at Toy Fair - For Colleges and High Schools- you're probably on the waiting list already for the creator's "Charge Large Responsibly Tour"

  • Posted By: Amanda Lauren @ 01/16/2009 1:12:46 AM

    He's not the only one who saw it coming- Ask eccentric mogul, Charlie Large who came out with a board game providing insight to teachers and students (and consumers next month at Toy Fair). Large's board game, although lacks the quick wit and poetic appeal, he offers society a way to get their "black card" by upgrading wisely on their credit and truly provides a a way for people to experience credit in the 'right' world- the gaming world that is prior to heading into the real world before it is too late! http://www.ChargeLargeGame.com - Consumers get ready, it will be in stores soon enough after Debut at Toy Fair - For Colleges and High Schools- you're probably on the waiting list already for the creator's "Charge Large Responsibly Tour"

  • Posted By: kyleaggie @ 01/15/2009 1:50:58 PM

    Yes, you can get an equity line of credit from your home, but that is essentially money you have already paid into your mortgage that you are drawing down. Using derivatives to hedge real estate will help the real estate market stay more liquid because you dont win or lose as much if home prices increase or decrease. This means that the real estate market would not be as cyclical. If hedging decreases the huge upside potential that sometimes happens such as a few years ago, you will not have a bubble. If hedging decreases the huge downside that is happening right now, people would still be able to draw equity from their home if say they lost their job. Hedging and derivatives will become all the more important as people become more risk adverse.

  • Posted By: RandyHiggins @ 01/15/2009 12:21:47 PM

    Nobody insures against certain loss. We should have all seen that the value of real estate would plummet because of bubble conditions. The risk was to buy and sell before the obvious bubble collapsed. That isn't investiment, it's exploitation. Madoff type schemes can't be insured against. Shiller isn't suggesting a solution, he's suggesting we provide a new way for him to make money without learning anything from what's happened.

  • Posted By: agoodname0 @ 01/15/2009 5:51:31 AM

    But tens of millions of U.S. homeowners took out large amounts of cash from banks as "home equities." So what does the Professor mean by "wealth is locked up in houses?" In the case of the U.S. at least, in the last decade, very little wealth was left locked up in houses, as we now know.

    Another point: more derivatives? Well, just more commissions for Wall Street types, that's all. There would be no additional protection for homeowners, you can take that to the bank (pun intended).

  • Posted By: kamnik @ 01/15/2009 4:07:26 AM

    Sir
    It is an obviously hollywoodian idea to find a sage in a mess, but of course Mr Shiller was not the first nor the only one, neither were messrs Roubini and Roach. To keep it in the (market fearing) familiy I suggest you have look at the title page of the"economist" print edition June 18th 2005: It shows a brick falling from the sky, written on the brick the words house prices. The leader quite impressively laid out the point, why those house prices were unsustainable and what could be the dire consequences. The argument was not mainly about how the bubble was financed but about the sheer volume. The conclusion was that this might easily have been the biggest bubble in history and that the day of reckoning was near with possibly very painful sequelae. I could quote a number of articles from (at that time mainly leftist) newspapers, french english and german from 2004 which correctly predicted 2008. At that time it did sound strangely appocaliptical and out of line, and of course criticism came from the wrong side.
    With other words your title is quite ridiculous; and symptomatic. Post hoc the establishment reestablishes itself and in the haze of our hangover some simple aspects get lost. A bubble is a bubble and economy takes place in the real world.

  • Posted By: ploughman @ 01/14/2009 9:42:13 PM

    OK, so the average person can't understand subprime loans and gets in trouble, and they're supposed to understand this?

    The real need out there is twofold: stop treating housing like it's going to make you rich, and critically re-examine the oversold "American dream."

    On the first point, periods of rapid price appreciation are the historical exception, not the rule. And unless they're confirmed by rising incomes and a booming local economy, they're in danger of painful reversals as now. There's just no way a 50% run-up in home values can stand when median incomes are flat. Even us non-economists knew that. In normal times you might keep up with inflation or slightly better, but you've also got a lot of non-mortgage costs (maintenance, utilities, property taxes) that can really bite you if you try to own "too much house."

    On the second point, people need to realize that the "American dream" makes a lot more sense as a platform for optimizing consumption than it does as something that's necessarily friendly to the consumer. Just because the parents did it a certain way and now friends and relatives do, doesn't mean it makes sense for the individual. Car companies, oil companies, Home Depot and a ton of other interests have fortunes staked to the suburban model, so it's NO WONDER they'd be cheerleaders for it. But it's YOU who is being given the bill for it, and it's eminently fair to ask whether the 2- or 3-hour commutes or all the myriad expenses are worth it when you're having to spend so much time at work and you don't get to see your family enough, have too much stress or your employer takes advantage of a weak job market to demand more unpaid overtime. That's your life slipping away, and people need to quite telling themselves there aren't any alternatives. There are, and if you travel extensively you can see them.

    I think we're in need of some real downshifting and workers demanding that some productivity gains go to more leisure time rather than more "stuff." It's ridiculous that we have more technology and gadgets than ever but people are working more, not fewer, hours.

    We also need to stop treating renters like second-class citizens. In many situations renting makes sense, and it's even possible to do it long term and save for retirement if you keep expenses low and are disciplined about saving and investing.

  • Posted By: Halfyre @ 01/14/2009 7:40:36 PM

    There is much to admire about Robert Schiller, as he did accurately predict the tech bubble and the real estate bubble for precisely the right reason: unfettered speculation. What he and most people (economists, policy makers, investors, general public) miss is this simple point: when too much capital in an economy is invested in financial assets (stock market, commodities, real estate, etc), bubbles will always occur and they will always burst with devastating results.
    The creation of enormous wealth via financial investing is alluring. There are very few barriers to entry, investors can leverage twenty, thirty, forty-fold, very little up front capital or on-going costs are necessary (no labor, no plant costs, no production costs, etc), extraordinary profits can be achieved, and all of this can be accomplished in a short time span. To top it all, just when initial financial profits begin to slow down, you can always create secondary markets (options, derivatives, hedges, house "flipping", etc) to keep the party going longer and harder. It???s no wonder everyone from Wall Streeters to little old ladies go "all in" with any number of investment opportunities.
    The problem is at some point, economic gravity sets in. Every asset class and derivative is overvalued, and there is no fresh money coming in to propel these assets higher. The overriding real economy (manufacturing, services, etc) is not generating enough profit for companies and their workers to fuel the financial boosters. When this happens, all of the financial assets fall simultaneously, exploding all around, causing great devastation throughout.
    Creating derivatives for the consumer, as Schiller suggests, will only create yet another insulation layer to allow speculative bubbles to grow larger and by default, more devastating and longer to recover. A better suggestion would be to responsibly enforce reasonable financial risk management through regulation and sound business practices in the financial marketplace. We've already instituted many of these regulations and business practices based on past bubbles: banking reserves, naked short selling rules, insurance regulations, thoughtful home, auto, and consumer loan qualification processes, to name a few. We need to enforce these existing rules and practices, and adapt them when new financial schemes begin to overheat.
    Moving away from an economy based on finance is always difficult and painful, because short term gains are so easy and wildly profitable. However, overreliance on financial investment wealth is dangerous. Encouraging and implementing secondary instruments of financial speculation will only lead to bigger bubbles and more pain and suffering when the bubbles burst. A better alternative might be to enforce proper business practices and regulations which can influence valuable capital away from speculative bubbles and toward industries and services that better deserve investment.

    • Posted By: McLovinB @ 01/14/2009 8:56:28 PM

      I think this would be more persuasive if you could be more specific about some points.

      What do you mean by too much investment in financial instruments?
      What do you mean by always create secondary markets?
      At what point does economic gravity set in?
      What do you mean by responsibly enforce?
      What is reasonable financial risk management?
      What are sound business practices?
      What are thoughtful loan processes?
      What is overreliance on investment wealth?
      What industries better deserve investment?

      This is why politicians frustrate people. There is nothing specific at all in your long message. Buzzwords, platitudes and witticisms. All of your adjectives are normative, but they are not constrained.
      This is also why politicians deride bureaucrats. Every day, government administrators must decide "how much is too much" in all the ways you mention, and if they guess wrong, some politician will blame them. When is the government "crushing the lenders with overregulation" and when is it "letting the lenders get off scott-free"? Well, the answer is "yesterday" depending on whom you ask.
      Personally, I do not think that we need people in Washington deciding what is a good and bad investment, and certainly it should not decide what sound business practices are.

      I fault the politicians for being nitwits, but the blame should really go to administrators who acted like politicians. Simple, decent, and responsible use of interest rates during the last decade would have served America well. Greenspan seemed like a great guy and all, but he should have been hitting the brakes at about 2005 or thereabouts. It would have brought stocks down, slowed the housing boom, and given people a taste of real risk. Instead, hubris led Americans down the wrong path.

  • Posted By: gloriously @ 01/14/2009 5:55:12 PM

    wow, animal spirits ? I'd not heard of tat one, but it might not be that far off !

    • Posted By: McLovinB @ 01/14/2009 8:31:40 PM

      As you might imagine, the phrase is as old as tulipmania. It is centuries old and probably a mischaracterization of anyone studying modern economics.
      People behave rationally, but they often have very strange interpretations of the information that they have to work with.

  • Posted By: megs83tx @ 01/14/2009 6:18:58 PM

    Great idea. The challenge would be creating indeces that accurately reflect the movement in home prices in a given area. I would most definitely buy a put option to hedge against a fall in my house's price...a complicated sort of 'equity insurance.' Why on earth haven't we already thought of and implemented this?

    • Posted By: McLovinB @ 01/14/2009 8:28:57 PM

      You could emulate it by buying a put on something correlated with your home's value, like S and P futures.
      So yeah, someone has already thought of it. Some people probably did it.

      I have a better idea, though, why not get rid of the mortgage interest deduction on homes in the first place? When people start buying homes for the service rather than for tax and investment reasons, maybe they could be valued a little more as a useful asset than as something to be securitized.

  • Posted By: mike.silva@gmail.com @ 01/14/2009 8:10:59 PM

    Only a "handfull of economists" saw this coming? Bullshit. Lots of people saw it coming. This is the case of a media that cheerleads bubbles, and kisses the Bush administrations regulation busting ass trying to cover their own ass after the fact.

  • Posted By: McLovinB @ 01/14/2009 7:33:28 PM

    Oh poo. Anyone who has paid attention to what has been happening in Japan for the last two decades would have been able to work from a carbon copy to predict America's recent past and future.
    Similar problems, similar countermeasures, with probably similar results. Interest rates have been near zero for about a decade in Japan, as growth has been also. Government debt has ballooned.
    I suppose it excites people to believe that they are the first to experience economic problems like this, but the truth is that it is the same old thing happening all over again. Most of us will live long enough to predict the next economic debacle if we would just pay attention.
    To be a genius in America these days, all you have to do is read a newspaper, is that it?

  • Posted By: fixitup @ 01/14/2009 7:30:09 PM

    .........but not without stringent regulation!

  • Posted By: fixitup @ 01/14/2009 7:26:47 PM

    The word "Derivative" to me, has been a word to vilify until I read and made sense of this article.

  • Posted By: dixibleu @ 01/14/2009 7:15:48 PM

    Larry Burkett of Crown Financial Ministries actually predicted this in 1991. check The Coming Economic Earthquake (Moody Press, Chicago)

  • Posted By: BigJake @ 01/14/2009 7:12:03 PM

    "Though he's acutely aware of how rarely academics get the real world right"... uhhh, how about "how rarley ANYONE get the real world right". Academics are leading the charge, many fall to bullets, but that doesn't mean you shoot them in the back.

  • Posted By: jvw4220 @ 01/14/2009 6:45:11 PM

    I think Barack Obama should sit down with this guy and take notes, congress too. He's very smart, and on the right track to recovery which we all need ASAP

  • Posted By: jvw4220 @ 01/14/2009 6:43:56 PM

    I think Barack Obama should sit sit down with guy and take notes, congress too....he's very smart and I believe is on the right track to recovery...

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