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He also sees government intervention as vital to channel animal spirits and innovation. And where innovation is most needed now is in real estate and for the individual homeowner.

For all the trillions in derivative trading, there were very few traders. Almost all the subprime mortgages that were bundled and turned into derivatives were sold by a handful of Wall Street institutions, working with a small number of large institutional buyers, ranging from the Bank of China to HSBC to sovereign wealth funds. And as we now know, these derivatives were black boxes whose contents were known by neither the sellers nor the buyers. It was a huge but illiquid and opaque market.

Meanwhile, the system was built on the myriad decisions of individual homeowners and lenders around the world. None of them, however, could hedge their bets the way large institutions can. Those buying a condo in Miami or Marbella had to believe that the market was going up, and had no way to protect themselves if the market went down. When it did, millions were left with homes they could not sell, even for less than they paid.

The solution, says Shiller, is to use derivatives to allow home-owners—and, by extension, lenders—to insure themselves against falling prices. In the United States alone, housing is a $20 trillion market, in there are few ways to unlock profit when the market falls. But for stocks, because of the use of derivatives and options, money can be made when markets fall, which significantly increases the potential number of buyers and sellers at any given point. And more buyers and sellers—according not just to Shiller but to most finance scholars and traders—means that markets stay liquid and functional even under pressure.

Shiller has been exploring ways to create homeowner insurance against falling prices for nearly 20 years, and most of the papers he has written on the subject are written for other academics. Even his recent "Derivates Markets for Home Prices," a working paper published last March at Yale, is more jargon-filled than most laypeople could handle. While he has been both adept at sounding his warnings about bubbles and fortunate in his timing (he published a book, "Irrational Exuberance," on a bursting stock-market bubble just as the burst arrived in March 2000, and another on the subprime meltdown just as the meltdown went global), his call for derivatives as homeowner insurance have not received nearly as much attention.

It's not as if he hasn't tried to put his money where his mouth is. With business partners he created a home-price index, the Case-Shiller Index, which in turn can be traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. But that is limited mostly to gamblers and speculators who want to take bets on whether the index and underlying average home prices are going to go up or down. That is a far cry from someone buying a home in a suburb of Las Vegas or Phoenix being able to use some sort of financial instrument to hedge himself against home-price declines. As Shiller freely admits, it's a long way from where we are to where he thinks we ought to be.

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  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 8:13:10 AM

    Space is limited please request free copy of the plan via email....bestsolutionsfl@aol.com.Thanks


    Problem solved: All homes become owner occupied.All housing supply will be eliminated by demand,created by those who wish to stay in their homes(85%) and by new homeowners (15% foreclosed or rented,Investor owned) because of the extremely low affordable rates.

    ACTION:Solve Trillions of dollars crisis at no cost to the taxpayers,and allowing for a tax payer profit.
    RESOLVED:ALL "underwater" loans and foreclosed homes to be purchased at 110% of FAIR MARKET VALUE.Loan to be marked "paid-in-full"This is a one time deal and could be done in 6 months are less.As allowed by Freddie and Fannie as part of their interest in securing mortgages and new condition for banks if they desire any federal help.
    PURCHASE to be made with the use of 10 Year US Treasury Notes at 2.7%.NOTES will be given as payment in full.
    Legislation is already in place for GSE agency to do this and also funding is already approved (TARP).
    NEW LOAN: is a special "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" loan
    A 10 Year loan that has fixed payments (120) with payment number 121 (the magic bullet) ...... paying the balance in full.Because of the low cost of the funding(12/31/08 @ 2.08%)now @ 2.6% with the special long term payback this will be a very affordable payback.
    TERMS FOR THE NEW LOAN:120 fixed, low, and affordable monthly payments that consists of........
    ........... (A) payment of total interest; (B)15% of principal ; (C)15% for taxes and insurance.
    This is a total payment ,known as P.I.T.I.
    MAGIC BULLET:Payment number 121..the new 30 year mortgage.. is given by a third party lender to the owner at a fixed prevailing rate,for the 85% balance.IF A TAXPAYER PROFIT IS DESIRED AT 5%,then the 30 year is to be 90% of the original new loan.(If 3 Trillion needed that's 150 Billion profit).
    Example:$100,000 "EVERYBODY WINS LOAN"
    LOAN AMOUNT $100,000 with payments to include:
    A...Total 10 years interest............... $27,000
    B...15% for principle reduction........ .$15,000
    C..15%..TAXES and INSURANCE.....$15,000
    TOTAL.......................................................$57.000
    paid by 120 fixed equal payments of $475.00 each...... (wow, how affordable is a $100,000 mortgage
    at a total P.I.T.I. payment of $475.00 per month???)Then the 10 year treasury bond is paid-in-full since a new 30 year fixed mortgage is acquired for the $85,000 balance.NOTE: if taxpayer profit is desired then the new 30 year loan is for $90,000.
    To calculate payment for 10 year portion use a factor of 4.75 per $1,000.
    Example:, if loan amount is $250,000;payments of $1187.50
    ($250 X 4.75 = TOTAL PITI FOR A HOME VALUE OF $250,000
    at an unbelievabe low $1187.50
    REPEAT: Extremely affordable.It is total payment...P.I.T.I.
    You need to get the full plan because in order to solve the lenders side a lender is given a loan to replace "out of the money " portion

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 7:59:35 AM

    In his latest book "Subprime Solution" I believe, Shiller called for a fast solution,that would allow time for a solution to prevent re-occurance and dole out justice.
    I would like everyone to CHANGE,CHALLENGE OR ENDORSE "THE EVERYBODY WINS PLANS"
    Contact information: Carmen Basilovecchio
    Best Solutions Fl Real Estate
    9804 S Military Trail E-10
    Boynton Beach, Fl 33436
    561-738-5188


    THANK YOU
    PLEASE
    Change it,
    Challenge It
    or Endorse it.PASS IT ON

    A SOLUTION TO THE HOUSING MORTGAGE CRISIS with accountable Bank Funding at NO COST to the taxpayers. By using the 1930's method,i.e., lower interest rates with a longer payback period.The ranch had to be paid for with a 5 year mortgage,till someone created the 25 year mortgage.

    Using today's rates and knowledge,the entire inventory of troubled homes will become EXTREMELY AFFORDABLE and thereby
    AAA and 100% asset based.At no cost to the taxpayer and an option for a profit to the taxpayers.

    A special 10 year year mortgage with an automatic 30 year mortgage that includes
    PRINCIPAL
    INTEREST
    TAXES and
    INSURANCE.

    PER $100,000 loan there would be a total fixed 10 yr. PITI payment of
    .........$475........PITI with a 30 year fixed principal and interest payment of around $510 to $540.
    FOR HOMEOWNERS;
    Let them stay in their homes,
    Let them be able to afford it,
    and be able to manage it.
    THIS IS THE REAL AMERICAN DREAM.
    Help the 8% that have made this nightmare and thereby turn this challenge into a greater good for all.Re-establishing "CREDARE" .Faith in the American people,that we are credit worthy and will clean up this mess made by GREED.
    This is a fast and great solution to the problem and it allows for time
    to fix the blame and to do what is nessecary for future prevention.

  • Posted By: Amanda Lauren @ 01/16/2009 1:13:12 AM

    He's not the only one who saw it coming- Ask eccentric mogul, Charlie Large who came out with a board game providing insight to teachers and students (and consumers next month at Toy Fair). Large's board game, although lacks the quick wit and poetic appeal, he offers society a way to get their "black card" by upgrading wisely on their credit and truly provides a a way for people to experience credit in the 'right' world- the gaming world that is prior to heading into the real world before it is too late! http://www.ChargeLargeGame.com - Consumers get ready, it will be in stores soon enough after Debut at Toy Fair - For Colleges and High Schools- you're probably on the waiting list already for the creator's "Charge Large Responsibly Tour"

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