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Though he's acutely aware of how rarely academics get the real world right, Shiller's critics accuse him of much the same thing. Several traders I know dismissed Shiller's basic premise that more derivatives would make the housing market more liquid and more stable. They point out that futures contracts haven't made equity markets or commodity markets any less immune from massive moves up and down, and may have made such moves steeper, sharper and more rapid. They also scoff that Shiller, his experience with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange notwithstanding, has never had to manage a portfolio or a trader's book, and that a ballooning world of home-based derivatives wouldn't lead to homeowners' insurance: it would lead to a new playground for speculators. To the contrary, says Shiller, by enabling people to hedge against price declines, "derivatives could make it more difficult for bubbles to form."

Given that these ideas are untested in the real world, it's impossible to know who's right. But Shiller's radical ideas have a parallel in the thinking of the influential Peruvian-born economist Hernando de Soto. De Soto's pathbreaking observation was that the Western world began to outstrip the rest of the world when its legal and banking systems allowed people to turn land into cash. The contemporary system of using property as collateral for loans is the result, and it has given the Western world a huge advantage.

In many ways, Shiller is saying that too much potential wealth is still locked up in land and real estate. Because the owner of a property can sell that property easily only when conditions are good, the asset is risky and illiquid, and there is no way to offset those problems. Expanding the world of derivatives and giving homeowners the ability to "short" their own property could potentially make real estate as easy to buy, sell and hedge as stocks, bonds and some commodities are now. The effects, predicts Shiller, would be to unleash much more potential wealth while simultaneously decreasing the systemic risks.

In essence, Shiller is laying the intellectual groundwork for the next financial revolution. We are now suffering through the first major crisis of the Information Age economy. Shiller's answers may be counterintuitive, but no more so than those of doctors and scientists who centuries ago recognized that the cure for infectious diseases was not flight or quarantine but purposely infecting more people through vaccinations. "We've had a major glitch in derivatives and securitization," says Shiller. "The Titanic sank almost a century ago, but we didn't stop sailing across the Atlantic."

Of course, people did think twice about getting on a ship, but if we listen to those fears, we lose the very dynamism that has propelled us this far. That is the nub of Shiller's call for more derivatives and more innovation. Every major crisis in capitalism is met by calls to return to an earlier, mythic time when life was more secure and things were better. For a time, animal spirits may be tempered, but rarely for longer than the average New Year's resolution. The challenge is to find a way to prevent them from running wild when they inevitably return. Shiller's call for more derivatives is a tough sell at a time when they've produced so much havoc. But he reminds us that the tools that got us here are not to blame; they can be used badly and they can be used well. And trying to stem the ineffable tide of human creativity is a fool's errand.

Karabell is president of River Twice Research.

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 8:13:10 AM

    Space is limited please request free copy of the plan via email....bestsolutionsfl@aol.com.Thanks


    Problem solved: All homes become owner occupied.All housing supply will be eliminated by demand,created by those who wish to stay in their homes(85%) and by new homeowners (15% foreclosed or rented,Investor owned) because of the extremely low affordable rates.

    ACTION:Solve Trillions of dollars crisis at no cost to the taxpayers,and allowing for a tax payer profit.
    RESOLVED:ALL "underwater" loans and foreclosed homes to be purchased at 110% of FAIR MARKET VALUE.Loan to be marked "paid-in-full"This is a one time deal and could be done in 6 months are less.As allowed by Freddie and Fannie as part of their interest in securing mortgages and new condition for banks if they desire any federal help.
    PURCHASE to be made with the use of 10 Year US Treasury Notes at 2.7%.NOTES will be given as payment in full.
    Legislation is already in place for GSE agency to do this and also funding is already approved (TARP).
    NEW LOAN: is a special "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" loan
    A 10 Year loan that has fixed payments (120) with payment number 121 (the magic bullet) ...... paying the balance in full.Because of the low cost of the funding(12/31/08 @ 2.08%)now @ 2.6% with the special long term payback this will be a very affordable payback.
    TERMS FOR THE NEW LOAN:120 fixed, low, and affordable monthly payments that consists of........
    ........... (A) payment of total interest; (B)15% of principal ; (C)15% for taxes and insurance.
    This is a total payment ,known as P.I.T.I.
    MAGIC BULLET:Payment number 121..the new 30 year mortgage.. is given by a third party lender to the owner at a fixed prevailing rate,for the 85% balance.IF A TAXPAYER PROFIT IS DESIRED AT 5%,then the 30 year is to be 90% of the original new loan.(If 3 Trillion needed that's 150 Billion profit).
    Example:$100,000 "EVERYBODY WINS LOAN"
    LOAN AMOUNT $100,000 with payments to include:
    A...Total 10 years interest............... $27,000
    B...15% for principle reduction........ .$15,000
    C..15%..TAXES and INSURANCE.....$15,000
    TOTAL.......................................................$57.000
    paid by 120 fixed equal payments of $475.00 each...... (wow, how affordable is a $100,000 mortgage
    at a total P.I.T.I. payment of $475.00 per month???)Then the 10 year treasury bond is paid-in-full since a new 30 year fixed mortgage is acquired for the $85,000 balance.NOTE: if taxpayer profit is desired then the new 30 year loan is for $90,000.
    To calculate payment for 10 year portion use a factor of 4.75 per $1,000.
    Example:, if loan amount is $250,000;payments of $1187.50
    ($250 X 4.75 = TOTAL PITI FOR A HOME VALUE OF $250,000
    at an unbelievabe low $1187.50
    REPEAT: Extremely affordable.It is total payment...P.I.T.I.
    You need to get the full plan because in order to solve the lenders side a lender is given a loan to replace "out of the money " portion

  • Posted By: BASILOVECCHIO @ 02/27/2009 7:59:35 AM

    In his latest book "Subprime Solution" I believe, Shiller called for a fast solution,that would allow time for a solution to prevent re-occurance and dole out justice.
    I would like everyone to CHANGE,CHALLENGE OR ENDORSE "THE EVERYBODY WINS PLANS"
    Contact information: Carmen Basilovecchio
    Best Solutions Fl Real Estate
    9804 S Military Trail E-10
    Boynton Beach, Fl 33436
    561-738-5188


    THANK YOU
    PLEASE
    Change it,
    Challenge It
    or Endorse it.PASS IT ON

    A SOLUTION TO THE HOUSING MORTGAGE CRISIS with accountable Bank Funding at NO COST to the taxpayers. By using the 1930's method,i.e., lower interest rates with a longer payback period.The ranch had to be paid for with a 5 year mortgage,till someone created the 25 year mortgage.

    Using today's rates and knowledge,the entire inventory of troubled homes will become EXTREMELY AFFORDABLE and thereby
    AAA and 100% asset based.At no cost to the taxpayer and an option for a profit to the taxpayers.

    A special 10 year year mortgage with an automatic 30 year mortgage that includes
    PRINCIPAL
    INTEREST
    TAXES and
    INSURANCE.

    PER $100,000 loan there would be a total fixed 10 yr. PITI payment of
    .........$475........PITI with a 30 year fixed principal and interest payment of around $510 to $540.
    FOR HOMEOWNERS;
    Let them stay in their homes,
    Let them be able to afford it,
    and be able to manage it.
    THIS IS THE REAL AMERICAN DREAM.
    Help the 8% that have made this nightmare and thereby turn this challenge into a greater good for all.Re-establishing "CREDARE" .Faith in the American people,that we are credit worthy and will clean up this mess made by GREED.
    This is a fast and great solution to the problem and it allows for time
    to fix the blame and to do what is nessecary for future prevention.

  • Posted By: Amanda Lauren @ 01/16/2009 1:13:12 AM

    He's not the only one who saw it coming- Ask eccentric mogul, Charlie Large who came out with a board game providing insight to teachers and students (and consumers next month at Toy Fair). Large's board game, although lacks the quick wit and poetic appeal, he offers society a way to get their "black card" by upgrading wisely on their credit and truly provides a a way for people to experience credit in the 'right' world- the gaming world that is prior to heading into the real world before it is too late! http://www.ChargeLargeGame.com - Consumers get ready, it will be in stores soon enough after Debut at Toy Fair - For Colleges and High Schools- you're probably on the waiting list already for the creator's "Charge Large Responsibly Tour"

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