Samuelson usually writes good articles, but this one is not the case...
" Doom & gloom " & no proposals...
What does he propose as a remedy ?
What can we do ?
Obama says he doesn't want to mortgage our children's future. If he means it, he'll have to cut retirees' Social Security and Medicare benefits. Who wins?
Samuelson usually writes good articles, but this one is not the case...
" Doom & gloom " & no proposals...
What does he propose as a remedy ?
What can we do ?
children do not vote....therefore they mean less to politicians than the AARP crowd....how wil this be resolved if Social Security and Medicare is deemed "too big to fail" when it actually is only "too underfunded and too often stolen from" to work....this continuing Ponzi scheme is nearing it's "Madoff Point"....the only question is who is left without a chair to sit in when the music stops, other than the recipients who have been robbed....will it be this administration or the next, and who really cares since everyone young and old will be getting a pie in the face on this gag
I just calculated over the years(since 1965) I have paid in some $ 44,000 into social security and my employers approx the same. I just started receiving benefts last August. In just over 2 1/2 years after starting I will already have received more than I personally had deducted over the years. Granted inflation figures are not considered...just what was deducted.
Just adding this to the discussion. Thanks
Yes, but what would this be worth if you had invested that 42k over the same time period into something that actually had a return - say a balanced s&p equity fund?
You whould have much more than the 84k (yours + employers). A rought excel estimate would be that you've got ~284K in your 'account' over the same time period (7% avg yearly).
You see bill, the problem is that we have 'invested' money in this ponzi scheme over our working lives. We want out what we have paid in - including the interest the money would have earned over the same time. When the repbilicans tried to change social security to do basically this it was shot down by the dems (thanks guys).
Social Security is more than just a pension. If said person died or becamse disabled at a younger age hie or his family would have had some protection from his loss of income. You can invest a soldiers Social Security taxes in the best stocks and still not pay him or her disabiility benefiits for the family for possibly 60 years.
jazzmanjim:
check your reasoning. What's really important is how much SS pay out to a recipient. Assuming that a person retires at 65 and lives to the average age of 74 (assume male), he would need savings to last 9 years. In today's dollars, your estimate of 284 K would probably not suffice for most retirees especially when you consider end of life medical expenses.
Of course, you're counting on an average return of 7%, which I imagine is the historic average return of stock market. Try selling that figure to retirees today who are lucky if they are generating any dsicernable interest income off their nest egg.
I give the Repubs credit for trying to reform Social Security, but no credit for trying to insinuate the stock market is a better deal. It's simply not. In terms of payout or risk, the current system is superior.
To use a Repub saying, you ain't going fix this by putting lipstick on it. The hard truth is that SS will have to be scalled back in some way, either by reducing benefits, raising elegibility age or making people assume more financial risk (by self-funding).
You are correct...I was just pointing out that in about a 33 month period I will have received all that I had deducted from my checks. I will only be 65. It would have been nice to have our contribution and the employers portion invested in something paying 7 % or more over the period. It will be interesting to see what ideas they come up with, Bill.
There is all this talk about SS for the Baby Boomers being cut or that we will work through our retirement. What I have yet to hear about is the entitlements that all the government employees get and will get. Do they have to work through their retirement also? There doesn't seem to be a fairness in the distribution when government workers get to retire when they put in 20 to 30 years and start drawing a guaranteed pension while the government spends our Social Security savings. Then they also go out and get a job in the public sector and double dip after retirement from the government. GEEZ!!!
Why not raise the Social Security wage limit? Currently, the maximum annual wage subject to Social Security tax is $ 106,800.
Well there is aloso a cap on what you can collect. Remember SS was supposed to be a safety net so that retirees had at least a minimal amount of income if they did not have a pension or did not save and invest by thensellves. As one that maxes out the amount deducted from my paycheck each year, if there is no cap on what is deducted, each year then there should also be no cap on what SS will pay out each year when I retire and start collecting
Boomers paid their entire working lives into SS. The first recepients didn't pay in one dime. Crooked politicians voted to spend the money that the workers were contributing. If the boomers are screwed, there will be blood. I am not speaking euphorically.
As they say..."Do the math..." We Boomers far outnumber the younger generations...and we vote. We will NOT be voting for anyone who is going to reduce our earned benefits!
You can do all the math you want, but remember vision and reflexes declines with age, so when the complete anarchy starts, the young folks will pull the trigger on the gun much faster and will be the survivors :)
I was a "first person shooter" in the Nam. I'll do OK...
Treachery takes time to master. The old have always ruled, and always shall.
Most Social Insecurity recipients use up what they contributed in 2 years time. So, put in a law that mandates that a person can receive their benefits 2 years prior to whatever the expected life expectancy is. Remember that when elderly welfare, aka social insecurity, was formed, the avergae life expectancy was 65. Now it's a decade+ longer, but people still get their benefits at the same age.
People do not use up what they have contributed, if you figure the interest they would have drawn on the money. You also need to figure what the dollars were worth each year they were taken out.
If we had sensible interest paid on the trust fund we would have much more to draw on....or should I say the government would have even more to take.
The simple solution is to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay back Social Security as it is needed. A better way would be to use the money taken from 401ks and IRAs. They are taxed as ordinary income and those taxes could be used as a dedicated tax to pay back the boomers as they need the money.
Mr. Samuelson you touched on what I predict will become the most divisive issue even above race. This is a pyramid scheme but, that said, the public really needs to be leveled with. The base question we all need to ask ourselves is would we rather spend 100 or 200 or whatever the amount of money it is to extend Grandmas life for 10-15 or however many years it is or should we let her die. Since we all know the latter is not even an option (at least I hope not) we must acknowledge that our grandparents and parents have backed us into a corner and there is no way out.
--The answer would be to privatize (stay with me now this is different) the retirement system such that: each employee starting with their first job would be required by law to set up a government mandated retirement account. Withdrawals out of this account would be illegal until the employee reaches age 65 except by the employees death in which it would then go to the beneficiary. Any employer of said employee would be required to deposit 10% of the employees pay directly into this account by law. These GMRA numbers simply take the place of your social each time you change jobs and the new employer then contributes to that account. Then by law it cannot be invested in stocks. These accounts could only be invested in government bonds or money market accounts. That way it would be safe simple and fair because you get out of it what you put into it and its all your own money. Some of the specifics could be a little debatable by economist you want but mandated responsibility is WAY better than Socialism anytime.
I quite disagree. Samuelson has (I believe) deliberately oversimplified what are really two issues: social security pensions and medicare. The first needs only a couple of minor fixes to be made solvent through most of this century, and continued immigration might even obviate those. Yes, hundreds of $billions have been stolen from the soc. sec. trust fund to pay for ordinary expenditures, one-half of which are military or defense-related; paying for that thievery in the 2020s will necessitate a combination of budget cuts and tax raises, but it should never become an excuse for cutting pension benefits themselves.
Medicare IS rapidly becoming a fiscal disaster. But here medical inflation plays by far the greater role, greatly outweighing the effects of declining worker / retiree ratios. For this reason, reform of medicare should occur AFTER a more thoroughgoing reform of general medical care and financing throughout society. In any case, the U.S. economy cannot afford an ever metastasizing health sector. In the meantime, I'd suggest temporarily repealing the new medicare drug benefit because the legislation deliberately and unnecessarily lines the pockets of insurance companies and drug wholesalers; worse, it doesn't have a dedicated source of funding. We should then reenact a less expensive, more streamlined program, with an appropriate funding source(s).
You are on the right track until you say not stocks. Sorry, but over the long term (greater than 20 years) investing mostly in stocks is the only way to accumlate siginificant income. The return on government bonds or money markets will not generate enough $$ over the long term.
I developed a monte-carlo simulation for a previous employer (I'm a code monkey). Basically (and this is the 50 thousand foot view) the program took a clients current fincianal situtation, what they could invest each year, the number of years they wanted to invest and the amount of money they would need at retirement (inflation adjusted). It then ran 10 thousand simulations baded on historical figures against their figures to determine if they would meed their goal. Success was determined to be at the 95th percentile (meaning that 95% of the simulations met or beat the goal). Guess what, unless one had a large starting amount and very small expectations the only way to meet these goals was with a mostly agressive stock portfolio until about 10 years before the money was needed with the risk (and return) going more consertative the closer to when the money was needed.
Samuelson grossly oversimplifies from one problem into two: Social Security, which needs only a slight fix to be made.fiscally sound; and Medicare, which thanks to Bush's illl-thought presc. program, is now bound for bankruptcy.
Samuelson knowingly obscures the fact that the federal budget consists of two budgets improperly bound together: the so-called Social Security trust fund, funded by payroll taxes and EVERYTHING ELSE. The first is further divided into Medicare and Soc. Security. The SS part of the trust fund has been running well in the BLACK for years. In fact, the rest of gov't. has essentially been stealing to give the APPEARANCE of smaller negative balances. SS has piled up enough surpluses that it should survive the baby boom bulge in the 2020s-30s, needing only small adjustments perhaps to taxes or retirement age. It is the EVERTHING ELSE, 50% of which is military or defense-related, that is essentially stealing from boomers' retirement and the nation's financial well-being.
Samuelson correctly foretells only the obvious: our health programs' costs are spiraling out of control. However, simply hacking away at physicians' reimbursements or members benefits will only lead to the complete collapse of Medicare as both providers and patients flee the system. President Obama's healthcare reform therefore will NOT necessarily burden the system, contrary to R.S.'s neo-laissez faire pronouncements. Healthcare reform that requires all Americans to obtain/receive a minimum package of benefits will actually LOWER costs because it will (1) provide greater bargaining power from providers and insurance companies; and (2) allow authorities greater ability to plan for and hence limit healthcare consumption.
Somehow, the Madoff scandal has reinforced my core belief that America is unable to recognize a simple Ponzi scheme, and the larger it becomes, the less likely anyone is to point out one basic fact.
Social Security is a Ponzi scheme that requires stupid people to keep pumping funds in to the pipe. When they stop, it will collapse.
I have had zero faith in the concept for my entire life, and never shall be convinced otherwise.
A simple warning to any of you whom might still be in control of your destiny, stash as much as you can away from the government or you will starve when this collapses. Your so called representatives have been bought and paid for long ago, and to believe that Obama is somehow different is dangerously naive.
stash what, dollar bills?!?!?!?!?!?!
Stash wealth. Be it Dollars, Euros, Gold, Property or low debt. Destiny is yours for the making, but rest assured you are on your own.
"Somehow, the Madoff scandal has reinforced my core belief that America is unable to recognize a simple Ponzi scheme"
this is your first mistake, thinking they did not recognize it, they knew it was happening, sec knew it, cox knew it, unless they are all brain dead, this is the problem, chris dodd got his golden parachute from countywide before it went under, barney frank got his also
wake up
I have been awake and laughing for quite a long time. If you were also, this wouldn't matter to you. Trust not and you can not be played for a fool.
The priority of our nation's health care system is to provide medical care to those who need it. Reducing the burden of unwanted teenage (or adult female) pregnanices is a matter of a woman's Pro-Choice decision-making capacity which is protected under the US Constitution. No church or federal official's decision-making should supercede that of the pregnant individual (late-term abortions is still controversial), but even in those cases where does the infant wind up, state foster care???
A major problem with the nation's health care system has nothing to do with abortion. It has to do with the aging of American society. In 2006, 49% of US residents in their 60's have at least one lving parent, and 52% of young adults between the ages of 18-24 live with their parents. These 49% of pre-retirement aged individuals are caught with the additonal financial burden of living with their children or parents while their incomes have remained flat and their health care insurance premiums are no longer affordable. Add the unwanted pregnancy of one of their daughter-in-laws and viola you are creating a whole new generation of welfare children that goes beyond the color barriers of the past. This is why we are seeing less conservative Republicans becoming either Independents or right-leaning Democrats. My parents are Republicans, but they are staunchly Pro-Choice in their beliefs, support stem-cell research, and support gay marriage and adoption. The Republican party has obliterated the Separation of Church & State within its party platform, and that has only led to it's decline as a party, and will continue to do so in the years to come. I don't think the RNC realizes how many thousands of disenfranchised members exist who now support our Democratic President. God Bless America.
So let meget this straight - we can afford to provide abortions to women around the world but we can't afford to take care of the women who gave us life?
I am fairly certain that if you leave the country, you still pay US income tax, in addition to any taxes in your new country, unless you are willing to give up your citizenship.
All those years when Social Security was running a surplus the government shouldn't have been stealing from it to make our deficit look smaller. When you rob Peter to pay Paul eventually Peter is going to need to be paid back. The program would be working fine if it wasn't for that.
It's not just Social Security that is the problem, it's the entire way our government budgets, does its books and answers to its constituents. I would love to bring back Reagans idea and let some corporate downsizing firms loose on our federal budget and see what happens. What he determined was we could save roughly 30-40% of our budget without cutting anything and that opened up a huge sh**storm. What he said later was that, if he had known it would open up that large of a can of worms he never would have mentioned it.
Me personally, I like opening cans of worms. A fiscal can of whoopas* wouldn't be out of line in my opinion at all either.
The problem is that when Medicare and Social Security were first implemented, the life expectancies were 15 to 20 years lower than what they are now. If people still died at 70 instead of 85 or 90, we wouldn't have these problems.
In addition to people living longer, expensive end-of-life care now may take place over several years, instead of several months or weeks. And diseases that used to kill people in a matter of months, like cancer, are now treated and in many cases, cured, so that instead of dying of cancer at 68, a person may die of heart failure at 78.
In short, we are victims of our own success.
The answer is to adapt to the longer life expentancy and the higher cost of keeping people alive. A combination of raising the retirement age, and increaing the amount of money deducted, along with more cost-effective and preventative health care will help.
But ultimately, a change in attitude about aging and dying needs to occur. Perhaps we would all do better to follow the examples of George Harrison and Pope John Paul II, who chose to die at home, without benefit of costly end-of-life care.
Maybe what we really need is not to do a better job paying for retirement - perhaps we need to do a better job of dying.
Like I said buddyroo, your comment is the very reason I feel I will get the short straw in my retirement. "Share the pain" you say...lovely. We'd better start with the CURRENT retirees then. They have paid into SS, but inflation and the increase in healthcare...along with the expensive advances in healthcare suck away the $ for future retirees. We better get ready to see the elderly on the streets.
Good God, stop the panic peddling lies. The social security trust fund ended 2008 with a $2.3 trillion dollar surplus. It
ended 2007 with a $2 trillion dollar surplus, and then it added $300 billion to that when it took in $900 billion in payroll
taxes and paid out $600 billion in benefits. In the same manner, it's expected to earn a net profit of $200 billion for the
next 15 years or even longer, by which time it will have a $6 trillion dollar surplus. At that rate it could pay out $200
billion dollars more than it takes in for 30 years, and that's without paying interest on the surplus. Fix medicare by
raising the 2.9 payroll tax (1.45% by employee, matched by 1.45% by employer) for hospitalization, and increase the
part B doctor and out-patient premiums from the current $96 to $120 per month, and continue to increase those charges
for inflation. But keep the government's dirty filthy hands off the greatest government pension fund in whole history -
Franklin Delano Roosevelt's great social security system, and stop the panic peddling lies about its economic problems.
There is no trust fund, idiot.
Where your Social Security tax dollars go
When you work, 85 cents of every Social Security tax dollar you pay goes to a trust fund that pays monthly benefits to current retirees and their families and to surviving spouses and children of workers who have died. The other 15 cents goes to a trust fund that pays benefits to people with disabilities and their families.
From these trust funds, Social Security also pays the costs of managing the Social Security programs. The Social Security Administration is one of the most efficient agencies in the federal government, and we are working to make it better every day. Of each Social Security tax dollar you pay, we spend less than one penny to manage the program.
The entire amount of taxes you pay for Medicare goes to a trust fund that pays for some of the costs of hospital and related care of all Medicare beneficiaries. Medicare is managed by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, not Social Security.
from : www.ssa.gov
Your article implies that the older generation, who are more focused and organized, will win this battle and that things look grim for the young. But one thing the young, particularly the best and brightest of them, can do is vote with their feet and simply opt out of America, i.e. leave the country and go somewhere where the opportunities and potential for a good life are better.
For so long it has been America that was the magnet of the world's talented youth, but this could reverse with America's youth leaving and going elsewhere if taxes get too oppressive in supporting social security, medicare, servicing the debt, etc. And, similarly and possibly more damaging, the bright foreigners that have already come to America and who we rely on to be our engineers, scientists, etc. might leave and stop coming. Kevin Philips in his latest book "Bad Money" which I'm starting to read raises this possibility --- a NY Times review of it says 'The final pages of his bleak new book, ???Bad Money,??? tell of an ???unprecedented??? number of Americans planning to leave the country or thinking about it.' I certainly hope this doesn't happen, but there will always be consequences to actions and the older generation must be realistic about the consequences of keeping all their benefits regardless the cost. I agree that they have earned their social security, etc. and ideally should get it, but we all have to be realistic about the situation. We need to share the pain.
We would prosecute the government if they were a private business in the way they've managed all the Boomer $ thoughout the years. The thousands upon thousands of dollars I've paid into FICA (Social Security) ALL goes to the current retirees instead of setting aside a % for my generation. I'm 52...I'm at the tail end of the Boomers...and, I'm sick to my stomach that MY Social Security money will not be there when I retire (as they continue delay the retirement age also). Other retirees will have used it, and the younger generation will be upset that THEIR money is going into my retirement. Social Security is a PONZI scheme...and, I feel like I will have the short straw in this lousy deal. The little $ I will get in retirement will come with the younger generation resenting me for receiving MY OWN MONEY! Such a deal.
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