Nuke-Size Headache

The question, then, is whether North Korea possesses the ability to arm those missiles with its nuclear warheads. While most experts believe Pyongyang still hasn't gotten that far, the chances are they're working on it. "The North Koreans will do it either way—whether the U.S. negotiates with them or not," says Kenneth Quinones, a former State Department negotiator with years of experience dealing with North Korea. "Even if the U.S. negotiates, they'll put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile in order to kick up the price [for denuclearization]."

Kim's health problems are an additional complication. His refusal to name a successor, could pave the way for North Korea's generals to increase their clout in a nation that puts the Korean People's Army (KPA) above everything. "When [Kim] dies, the military is going to be even more powerful," says Quinones. Given that the KPA controls the nuclear-weapons program, that scenario could pose a particular challenge to the Obama administration.

For now, the new leaders in Washington are still reviewing their options. In spite of speculation that Obama's North Korea policy could be more of the same, there are hints of a subtly different approach. The Bush administration largely saw Pyongyang's nukes as a direct threat to the security of the U.S. and its allies, more than as a challenge to the global nonproliferation framework.

The Obama administration might reshuffle those priorities: first and foremost, keep the nukes from getting into the wrong hands, and then try to get rid of its nuclear program down the road. "Many in the State Department think that North Korea's nuclear program—while potentially destabilizing—is not a front-burner issue that is aggressive in nature," says a former U.S. diplomat involved in the Obama administration's Asia-policy transition team who asked not to be identified in order to speak freely. "The concern [in the State Department] isn't North Korea as a threat—the concern here is the problem of how do you prevent or limit nuclear proliferation." Part of the thinking, the former diplomat says, is that while Pyongyang likely won't agree to get rid of its nukes anytime soon, at the same time they also aren't crazy enough to commit national suicide by provoking a nuclear war.

That's not to say that Washington is downplaying the North Korean threat. During her confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton said she will seek "to end" North Korea's nuclear-weapons program and stop its nukes from proliferating. But she also suggested that the Obama administration may have to face the reality that the nukes won't go away in the foreseeable future. "I think it takes tough reality-based diplomacy to determine what is doable," she said. It's an assessment that doves might call sober and realistic. Hawks, for their part, could see it as a defeatist attitude that would undermine the security of American allies in Asia. Either way, Kim Jong Il and his henchmen will keep reminding the Obama administration that it has tough issues to deal with on the Korean Peninsula.

Takashi Yokota is an associate editor at NEWSWEEK Nihon Ban (nwj-web.jp), NEWSWEEK's Japanese-language partner

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