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The Coming Trade Wars

 

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Since the 1950s, the U.S. has led the charge for dismantling global trade barriers. Yet, during the recent presidential election, then candidate Barack Obama seemed ambivalent about this legacy, with his call to renegotiate NAFTA and his almost blanket support for the policies of the protectionist labor unions. Now, with trade tensions sure to rise, the president must change his tune and become a global leader.

First, he must establish the policy that open trade is a crucial part of a global stimulus package. He should make it clear that exports are a critical generator of high-paying jobs and that imports hold prices down for millions of Americans.

Second, while he has already acknowledged the very real problem of income inequality, he must now address it directly. The solutions fall into the realm of education, training, trade-adjustment assistance, health care, community development and tax policy. Trade barriers are not the right instrument because that would raise prices for the poor and middle class and make the U.S. less competitive, and because other countries will retaliate in kind and kill our much-needed exports. Without a full-court press to reduce income inequalities, forestalling a trade debacle, let alone fostering trade liberalization, is politically impossible. The irony is that all these policies are already addressed in the new stimulus package. Obama needs to explicitly make the political and economic connection by emphasizing that the right domestic cushions will be in place to allow us to benefit from open trade.

Third, when the G20 heads of state meet on April 2 in London, the Obama administration should have prepared the way for a ringing endorsement to fight protectionism, with several concrete protrade commitments. Chief among these would be a set of rules to prevent stimulus packages and bailouts from discriminating against foreign investors.

Finally, Washington must deal with one of the most horrendously challenging problems of the world economy: how to reduce global financial and trade imbalances by encouraging Asian economies to spend more at home and consume more, too, and at the same time getting the U.S. to save and produce more. The U.S. could begin by examining a revised tax system that taxes consumption and rewards savings. China could be encouraged to vastly strengthen its social safety net so that consumers feel more secure about not saving so much of their income. A joint U.S.-China commission to study the alternatives and methods of implementation and report back in 2010 might be a good starting point. This is the long-term way to a sustainable equilibrium in the world economy, but the effort must begin now.

If there is a serious deterioration of global commerce due to protectionism, the damage would include slower growth everywhere. It would be impossible to restructure large global industries such as auto and steel, and there would be major difficulties further integrating China, India, Brazil, Russia and others into the global economy—with an attendant rise of political confrontations.

The banking crisis combined with deteriorating growth could deal a body blow to globalization. A trade war would be the coup de grâce.

Gartenis the Juan Trippe professor of international trade and finance at the Yale School of Management and former undersecretary of commerce for international trade in the first Clinton administration.

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: JPACTS @ 03/14/2009 1:28:54 AM

    The way to really boost the economy permanently:

    1) Reduce permanently 10% of the federal and state work force - those left need work harder like most workers still working are forced to do,

    2) Make all government employees INCLUDING senators, house of reps & the President /VP give up earning any more pension benefits (like most americans no longer have), INSTEAD give them a match of 50% on up 6% of their annual wage they contribute into a 403B plan - USE the TAX savings resulting from the dropping of new pension TO PROPERLY FUND SOCIAL SECURITY FOR THE TAXPES SINCE THATS 10 year from going BROKE

    3) Have the FEDERAL government stop paying 80% for federal employee families health premium - drop it to 50%,

    4) Increase the FEDERAL employee health insurance deductible to $1000 like most private employers now have,

    5) make all senators and house of representatives serve NO MORE than 2 term limits - ends the power of long term senators, etc to force senators, etc to approve EARMARKS on bills alreday released from committee

    6) Go to a flat tax Federal tax program so the IRS audits can stop (laying off 50% of that organizations tax payer supported staff)

    7) after 1st child's birth to a single mom STOP paying for single mom's child birth , offer free sterilization - more than 1/2 the baby's being born in the US now being paid for by the government (TAXPAYERS in other words) and don't give these single mom's, who are abusing the free childbirth /single mom welfare system by having child after child out of wedlock, money to support more than 1 child

    8) NO Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare benefits to ANYONE NOT A US CITIZEN even if their "citizen" child brings them into the US - as are all being done now for NON Citizens!

    9) Give the President Line Item Veto rights

    10) Give life in prison to ANY politician find guilty of any abuse of power or corruption while in office

    11) OUR prisons - lower the taxes to care for the Prisoners - no more coffee or juice, let them drink water at ALL MEALS, feed them oatmeal/toast for breakfast, peanut butter/jelly sandwiches with crackers for lunch and inexpensive stew (easy to make and serve requiring less kitchen labor) And for medicines make them pay the FULL COST of medicine - why reduce their costs out of taxpayers pockets ? I didn't unjustly put them in prison THEY BROKE the law - suffer the CONSEQUENCES


    STOP THE MADNESS


    P.S. Anyone running on the above platform will WIN any FUTURE elections, so Go for IT you TRUE AMERICANS!

  • Posted By: m.lorenz28@yahoo.com @ 02/09/2009 1:41:03 PM

    It really makes me sick to think that my taxes are going to company,s that are full of greed . That is why there company is in trouble. We should not bail any of these company,s out they all need to file bankrupcy or just shut down since they have no clue on how to run there company. I ran my own company for years and no body would bail me out it is not the tax payers duty to bail them out let them all go under. Michael

  • Posted By: DisciplineIsFreedom @ 02/08/2009 10:50:27 PM

    Nice try, but you make no mention of the fact that currently America is a net wealth HOLDER. That advantage is only decreasing through trade. No matter how much we export, we always import more. We would be better off if we stopped trade completely and made EVERYTHING at home, simply recirculating our wealth amongst ourselves. As it is, over time we can't help but to become a poor country, because given that we have so much now, it is very expensive to live here. We simply cannot survive on the same $1000 a year the average person in China survives on. Furthermore, when US companies do make money on imports, only the shareholders profit. Most of their workers are often in India or elsewhere in the world. Only their corporate headquarters may be in the US. And the wealth of those corporations is not be redistributed (through taxes) to enrich all the citizens of the nation. Instead these corporations use endless loopholes to avoid paying any taxes. So the American worker can only lose and never gain through free trade.

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