Thank you President Bush :) Also Pres Obama is wrong he no longer has 2 wars he has only one now and that depends on what he wants to do. He does not have to go to Afganistan...
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A New Iraq?
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"This is extraordinary for Iraq," says the Western adviser. "They're setting a new paradigm and have turned some huge corners. This confirms that the war ended in December and Iraq's new era began the first of January, and that it is happily charting a new democratic course." For Dr. Tahseen Sheikhly, spokesman for the Baghdad security plan, the fact that no party or coalition won by huge numbers—the highest percentage the Maliki alliance won was 38 percent, in Baghdad—suggests no one party will dominate the provincial councils. "Power will be balanced," he tells NEWSWEEK.
How the country manages that balancing act will be another test in the months ahead. While Maliki's alliance was the big winner, the Sadrists and Islamists also performed well, even though small religious parties lost ground. Candidates allied with Sadr, and those from the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, placed second or third in several provinces, including Baghdad (Sadrists in second place, although with only 9 percent of the vote); Basra (SCIRI, with 11.6 percent compared with Maliki's 37 percent); Najaf (SCIRI, behind Maliki by less than 2 percentage points); both Thi Qar and Missan, where the Sadrists were close seconds; and Qadissiya and Wassit, where SCIRI trailed the Mailiki slate by a few points.
Maliki and his associates are Islamist as well, but their relationship with the Sadrists has been adversarial, with Sadr at various points urging his supporters to rise up against the government. "Our alliances in the coming stage will be with those who believe in the state of law and in implementing the constitution and the right of citizens to exercise their rights," al-Senaid, the Dawa M.P., says when asked about working with the Sadrists. "Whoever believes in that will be our ally." Few believe Sadrists and Maliki's coalition are anywhere near the same page.
And there are a few other trouble spots. In Nineveh, 48.4 percent of the vote was won by the National Hadba slate, a group of mostly Arab nationalists who want to reduce the provincial influence of the Kurds, who placed second with 25.5 percent. The two groups could collide as the country prepares for its next vote, for a national Parliament. Indeed, the Kurdish issue remains a problem deferred. The Jan. 31 election did not cover four provinces—three that comprise the Kurdish Autonomous Region and a fourth, Kirkuk, that is the subject of a bitter dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, which insists the entire province must be part of its domain.
The provincial elections kicked off a political season that will continue until national elections are held, somewhere between the end of 2009 and the beginning of spring 2010. Parties and alliances will spend the upcoming months trying to duplicate or better their local performance at the national level. For Maliki and his associates, the question is whether they will be able to harness the strategies employed in their provincial win to guarantee the prime minister another term at the helm. For Iraq, the question is whether myriad parties and interest groups can forge a new democratic politics—without backsliding into recrimination and chaos.
With Saad Al-Izzi
© 2009
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