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A New Iraq?

 

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"This is extraordinary for Iraq," says the Western adviser. "They're setting a new paradigm and have turned some huge corners. This confirms that the war ended in December and Iraq's new era began the first of January, and that it is happily charting a new democratic course." For Dr. Tahseen Sheikhly, spokesman for the Baghdad security plan, the fact that no party or coalition won by huge numbers—the highest percentage the Maliki alliance won was 38 percent, in Baghdad—suggests no one party will dominate the provincial councils. "Power will be balanced," he tells NEWSWEEK.

How the country manages that balancing act will be another test in the months ahead. While Maliki's alliance was the big winner, the Sadrists and Islamists also performed well, even though small religious parties lost ground. Candidates allied with Sadr, and those from the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, placed second or third in several provinces, including Baghdad (Sadrists in second place, although with only 9 percent of the vote); Basra (SCIRI, with 11.6 percent compared with Maliki's 37 percent); Najaf (SCIRI, behind Maliki by less than 2 percentage points); both Thi Qar and Missan, where the Sadrists were close seconds; and Qadissiya and Wassit, where SCIRI trailed the Mailiki slate by a few points.

Maliki and his associates are Islamist as well, but their relationship with the Sadrists has been adversarial, with Sadr at various points urging his supporters to rise up against the government. "Our alliances in the coming stage will be with those who believe in the state of law and in implementing the constitution and the right of citizens to exercise their rights," al-Senaid, the Dawa M.P., says when asked about working with the Sadrists. "Whoever believes in that will be our ally." Few believe Sadrists and Maliki's coalition are anywhere near the same page.

And there are a few other trouble spots. In Nineveh, 48.4 percent of the vote was won by the National Hadba slate, a group of mostly Arab nationalists who want to reduce the provincial influence of the Kurds, who placed second with 25.5 percent. The two groups could collide as the country prepares for its next vote, for a national Parliament. Indeed, the Kurdish issue remains a problem deferred. The Jan. 31 election did not cover four provinces—three that comprise the Kurdish Autonomous Region and a fourth, Kirkuk, that is the subject of a bitter dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, which insists the entire province must be part of its domain.

The provincial elections kicked off a political season that will continue until national elections are held, somewhere between the end of 2009 and the beginning of spring 2010. Parties and alliances will spend the upcoming months trying to duplicate or better their local performance at the national level. For Maliki and his associates, the question is whether they will be able to harness the strategies employed in their provincial win to guarantee the prime minister another term at the helm. For Iraq, the question is whether myriad parties and interest groups can forge a new democratic politics—without backsliding into recrimination and chaos.

With Saad Al-Izzi

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: think4yourself @ 02/06/2009 4:23:58 PM

    Thank you President Bush :) Also Pres Obama is wrong he no longer has 2 wars he has only one now and that depends on what he wants to do. He does not have to go to Afganistan...

  • Posted By: Lee Holmes @ 02/06/2009 2:40:58 PM

    Hmm. So the lying LANCET report on US-caused deaths in Iraq has now been proven to be false. Its authors are now being subject to civil liability by the reports sponsors,Johns Hopkins University who poorly vetted the original 2004 ''study''. Ironically, as Bush is made the catalyst for an ''illegal war'',he also reaps the consequences of what can end up becoming a more stable large Middle Eastern nation.That which was ''broken''[Sec.of State Colin Powell],now appears to be on the mend,with Bush [and certainly the generals and the troops] enjoying a measure of vindication that ignores the fears of his critics in moving towards a thing which is unlike in totality,the Baathist creature it once was. The Iraqi people are not to be damned with faint praise,but with solid congratulations in trying to form their own imperfect union.

  • Posted By: kunino @ 02/06/2009 2:36:00 PM

    Well, DMoney got me on one point: I mistyped the word "flack".

    What I reported earlier didn't come from any blogs on the matter. it came from numerous press and TV reports. These don't disappear because DMoney hasn't seen them, and their facts have not been challenged by either the US or Iraqi government. The UN commission for refugees has a heavily stressed workforce supporting, feeding, etc, these post-US invasion refugees in Syria, Jordan and other nations.

    Following the US invasion, virtually all of Iraq's Christians fled the country, in defense of their faith -- and lives. There was no persecution of Christians before that.

    Refugees interviewed on television in recent years -- most made their first temporary residence in Syria, a Muslim country where Christians are still not persecuted -- report that they fled their homeland post-invasion because a) they were officially instructed to convert to Islam -- and wouldn't; b) in Romeo & Juliet style, they, Muslims, loved across Muslim religious lines and as a result were threatened with death; or c) they were targeted because they had helped the US invasion forces. These last ones are happy to present to TV cameras official letters of commendation from senior US military officials for their services. They seem to have been "thank you, drop dead"letters that would be virtual death sentences if discovered by local authorities back home.

    Political leaders back in Iraq are of course professing much less respect for the US occupying force than they cared to two or three years ago.

    DMoney also makes a strange and self-defeating argument in saying the current election was terrific in contrast with Ïraq's "very first election ... their truly first election ". What he's saying is that no election in Iraq is an election unless conducted under US auspices and military protection. A strange and untruthful idea. He or she rambles on to compare Iraq with Minnesota, a strange idea. Instead, imagine a situation in which the US held elections under occupation by some strong foreign military force. Then you have some idea of how "democracy" works in Iraq today. The real test of its strength will of course be how elections run after the Americans and their Coalition partners come home. My personal hope is that it will run well.

    There seems little reason to hope that the Iraqi refugees who fled because violent chaos erupted after the United States invaded their nation,will ever find safe haven in their former homeland again. Benign, ignorant and complacent musings about Iraq as the Minnesota of the Middle East seem ... well ... foolish and lazy. And, of course, contemptuous of the suffering. Such people are of course the natural victims of the flacks.

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