To Save the Chinese Dream

It could still pay off, but China's student job seekers were already facing tough times before the global economic tailspin began. A massive expansion in college placements since the 1990s had already begun taking the shine off a degree. Enrollments have doubled in the past four years and evidence of fear abounds. Even top students are now scrambling for jobs in second-tier cities; at a recent job fair at Beijing's elite Tsinghua University, students queued down two flights of stairs to find out about opportunities in places like sleepy Nanjing. Those lucky enough to find work

may have to settle for salaries far lower than what they and their debt-laden parents were counting on. "Wages are down 1,000 yuan [about $146] a month, says management student Tian Shaoyuan. The problem is not just financial. "The parents of this generation … haven't realized their dream in their own lives, so they want to achieve their dream in their children's generation," says Wei, the psychologist. As for youngsters, "once they have had the chance to leave the countryside, they don't want to go back … If they do, they'll feel their value has gone," Wei says.

Who gets blamed for all this pain depends on how Beijing responds. The risk is that angry youths could target China's leaders, foreign financial regulators or pushy parents. One danger is an upsurge of aggressive nationalism, a traditional pressure valve during tough times but one the government finds difficult to control.

To head that off, Beijing has generally stressed cooperation and tried not to blame Washington much for the global crunch (at least till the spat over currency rates). Chinese officials are also working hard to reassure students that opportunities still exist, encouraging them to consider unglamorous but stable forms of employment—which is easier now that high-flying jobs in finance or at multinationals look so uncertain. Qi Jinli, director of Tsinghua's Careers Center, says that the number of his students choosing jobs in state-run firms rose 10 percent last year.

Getting students to redirect their energy inward and to lower their ambitions is a sensible strategy, and if the government keeps up its job-creation efforts, it just might manage to keep the Chinese Dream alive, albeit in dog-eared form. Leaders are taking numerous steps in the right direction; besides the stimulus package, local governments are enhancing their student job fairs and organizing internships, for instance. But China's heady get-rich-quick days are probably over. Future graduates will be joining a sophisticated white-collar job market in a far more cyclical economy. In all likelihood, they'll still achieve a better living standard than their parents and be able to take care of them in their old age. Yet the fat years are over, and Chinese leaders need to help college grads adjust their expectations accordingly.

© 2009