ECONOMICS

The Myths Of The Recession

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  • Posted By: Dredd @ 04/06/2009 3:32:47 PM

    May I mention another myth of the recession ... that some banks are too big to fail:

    http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2009/04/too-big-to-flail.html

  • Posted By: Holly Garfield @ 02/13/2009 4:16:18 PM

    So far in this recession economics expert seems to be an oxymoron. I haven't seen any predictions that allow for a shrinking credit market. We have a whole lot of money betting on freeing up credit flow to jolt the economy, but I have seen no indication that borrowers will come back. Another myth is 'too big to fail.' That should be changed to 'too big for catastrophic failure.' Only the national governments are 'too big to fail.' If we don???t' get borrowers back we may have a 'too small for all to survive' credit market. So far the big failing is the almost total lack of attempts to get cash directly into the consumer-company-worker money multiplier loop. It's hard for the private sector to get jobs back if there is no demand. Getting demand back is the key to restarting the economy. Many of the jobs supposed to be created by the stimulus package are skilled jobs, and those take time to train the workers. In the meantime the bad debt is working its way through the system, and little more bad debt is being created. The economy may be falling, but it may have hit the inflection point by now. Unemployment is a very lagging indicator, and some leading indicators are starting to slow down in their fall. The stimulus package may be what we need. It puts hard cash back into the hands of the spenders in the short term and creates jobs in the middle term. In the meantime the economy is purging itself of bad debt, factories and workers are available, and commodities have scaled back, so we have excess raw material capacity.

    • Posted By: MominRR @ 04/04/2009 1:27:45 PM

      "The stimulus package may be what we need. It puts hard cash back into the hands of the spenders in the short term and creates jobs in the middle term." ?

      Oh yeah, the extra $10 a paycheck is going to help out *so* much! I almost can't decide what to spend my windfall on first. I think I'll go for my son's school lunches, this will go a long way towards helping to cover them. The credit cards will just have to wait for my next $10 windfall. After about 500 of those, I can consider going out and *buying* something with that $10. Whoo-hooo! I'm rich!

      Not.

    • Posted By: Osama Bin Login @ 02/17/2009 2:57:57 PM

      "So far in this recession economics expert seems to be an oxymoron. "

      Economics isn't a science, it's witchdoctery.

  • Posted By: Stop This @ 02/16/2009 10:52:09 AM

    The reason we are in this mess is because of high taxes along with high utilities costs /food/gas. People have just been squeezed to the brink of finacial disaster. I have seen my local taxes go from $3600.00 to $6700.00. in the last ten years. I have excellent credit and i am holding my own, but things are getting increasingly difficult.

    Lower taxes monitor utility companies offer people a chance to refinance at 3% putting our money back into our pockets with out sending out stimulus checks. And please build smaller homes again.
    Thank you

    • Posted By: MominRR @ 04/04/2009 1:09:24 PM

      I agree about the builders needing to build smaller homes. I got the smallest 3 bedroom home I could find -- $125K five years ago. Now they are going for $165-175K. Even at $125K, my payments, with taxes and insurance, are $950/mo. Very hard to cover everything else with that big a chunk taken up in house payments! And I'm at the median income for my state.

    • Posted By: chris s. @ 02/17/2009 4:50:37 PM

      Nonsense. The last administration gave tax cuts. How'd that work? Sure, give the money to the richest people, they can always be trusted to do the right thing. Trickle down, anyone? Oh yeah, we have a war too. People mortgaging their homes to the hilt, with the blessing of the banks. Sure, let's give the banks the money. They deserve it. May I add, with no oversite. I could go on but you get the idea. A huge disparity between the haves and have nots will lead to a depression or recession. Take your pick. Not claiming to be an economist . This is just common sense.

      • Posted By: John Dough @ 02/20/2009 5:31:33 PM

        The 3% reduction of income tax on top wage earners was only 63 billion and just a reminder the top 1% already pay 80% of the federal tax bill. The top 10% pay 80% of the total bill, the next 50% pay the final 10% while the bottom 40% pay no taxes at all. Tax cuts always help the ecoonomy - Bush's mistake was his deomcratic spending style

        • Posted By: michael_70 @ 02/21/2009 10:06:33 PM

          Your fact is not true. you grossly overstate the portion upper income people pay. was your mistake intentional?

          • Posted By: bubblehead @ 02/22/2009 1:36:14 AM

            the fact is taxes are money that is nonproductive which is always detrimental to the general economy. also the facts are that the top 10 percent pay 90 percent of the taxes.

            • Posted By: jchastn @ 03/27/2009 2:26:19 PM

              thats a load of crap. Money is money and whether the government spends it or you and i spend it it still churns the economic machine. Its when the top 10 percent hoard money in super stupid investment schemes and banks grow and merge to the point that they grow "too big to fail" that we get into trouble. "Investing" has meant "sheltering" or "betinng" too much in recent years. It is time to tax higher brackets, close the loopholes, and take the CASINO element out of the Stock Exchange. Recovery and crediblity will slowly follow.

              • Posted By: Mark Thieme @ 03/28/2009 5:47:29 PM

                • Posted By: Mark Thieme @ 03/28/2009 5:50:38 PM

                  Too simple. Too true. Too obvious. Too easy. Too hard.

                  In short: No way in hell.

                  Want to guess why?

          • Posted By: bubblehead @ 02/22/2009 1:27:49 AM

            to make an accusation that someones facts are grossly overstated without providing better information and documentation makes you look argumentative yet lacking in knowledge. especially when the previously stated comment is truly in the ballpark

          • Posted By: bubblehead @ 02/22/2009 1:24:18 AM

            you make a statement and accuse but do not yourself back it up with facts and sources. when in fact the previous post is in the ballpark

        • Posted By: rjkardo @ 03/19/2009 1:20:11 PM

          John Dough, you are comparing apples to oranges. The question is not how much in taxes the top 10% pay, the question is what % of earnings and wealth do they control? People are not taxed, income is.

        • Posted By: John Dough @ 02/20/2009 5:34:40 PM

          rop 10% pay 90% typo on previous reply

    • Posted By: Osama Bin Login @ 02/17/2009 2:57:13 PM

      "The reason we are in this mess is because of high taxes along with high utilities costs /food/gas."

      You're an idiot.

  • Posted By: MominRR @ 04/04/2009 1:05:23 PM

    I survived the mortgage crunch. But what is hurting me most is the banks' knee-jerk reaction to it: jacking up interest rates on all credit cards, even those with a zero balance, to nearly 30%. Then my daughter lost her job so I'm covering her car payment (my mistake: I shouldn't have co-signed, even after she assured me she could cover the payments - if I could afford a car payment I'd already be making one, to replace MY car!), and my 17-yr old car needed two big repairs in successive months. I went from doing ok, although wary, to just barely hanging on. I'm thinking of either a mom-financed bailout or letting my daughter's car be repossessed. I'm even beginning to wonder about that evil "b" word I'd swore I'd never even consider, "Bankruptcy." There's just nothing else to cut, and nothing I can sell.

  • Posted By: Jameswilly @ 04/01/2009 4:07:48 PM

    you make a statement and accuse but do not yourself back it up with facts and sources. when in fact the previous post is in the ballpark.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jameswilly
    http://www.substanceabusecenter.com/

  • Posted By: Jameswilly @ 04/01/2009 4:05:06 PM

    Your fact is not true. you grossly overstate the portion upper income people pay. was your mistake intentional.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    James
    <a href=" http://www.substanceabusecenter.com"> Substance Abuse Center</a>

  • Posted By: Albert Dungan @ 03/17/2009 11:43:19 PM

    Get ready folks the next leg of the three legged stool will be kicked out. This time thing will really hit the floor, unemployment will climb rapidly to over 11%, markets will tank and retirement accounts will be wiped out. Then things will evel but not climb back all that TARP and stimulis payments we spent have to be repaid to all the bond holders, like Red China. Have fun..........

  • Posted By: J Mercy @ 03/17/2009 1:17:29 PM

    Ai yi yi-- another article from one of the genius economists who Labor Day thought the U.S. economy was a super engine and sky rocketing energy prices were a monor fly in the ointment we could easily absorb...

    What bugs me most is this guy glazes over some very sobering facts and flat mistates others.

    1) The U.S. dollar didn't start falling in 2008; it was in fact in unfettered freefall against the Euro, the Pound and the Yen for five noticable years. Despite what the majority of talking heads had to say about this at the time, along the lines of 'international travel is more expensive, but other than that, what's the problem?', most obviously the trade deficeit ran up even higher and the massive amounts of money we borrow from overseas swelled as the dollar fell.

    2)"Debt", credit, corporate or governmental is a huge looming issue as there's far more of these kinds than all the mortgages put together. 2007 was the first year in history that Americans on the average spent more than they earned. Add to that the quantity of borrowed money necessary for the Federal gavernment alone to operate, you get the picture-- we are in fact a debtor nation.

    3)Yes, gold is under $1000/oz. again, back to around $900, but three years ago it was trading for under $600/oz. Our currency hasn't been tied to "the gold standard" for decades so swings in the value of a dollar and the price of precious metals aren't directly correlated. However, the value of dollars and crude oil prices are.

    4) In Sept., a run on money market accounts brought our banking system and therefore our economy within four hours of insolvency and collapse, and brought the global economy within 24 hours of failure. "Decoupling" always was a myth.

    5) "Taxes", income and all the rest, aren't fun but they're a necessity. Be prepared to lose the individual tax cuts of the last 20 years; it's a necessity.

    6) "Taxes" isn't a fun word and we've come to think of "oversight" and "regulation" as nasty terms, too. But as one of these geniuses ventured, "Maybe our bubbles shouldn't be allowed to expand so rapidly or so far so that the lows don't go quite so far down," which of course reqires regulation by governments. As far as the need for more oversight, well, everyone here can read.

  • Posted By: JPACTS @ 03/14/2009 1:49:53 AM

    SAVE THE TAXPAYER
    1) Reduce permanently 10% of the federal and state work force - those left need work harder like most workers still working are forced to do,

    2) Make all government employees INCLUDING senators, house of reps & the President /VP give up earning any more pension benefits (like most americans no longer have), INSTEAD give them a match of 50% on up 6% of their annual wage they contribute into a 403B plan - USE the TAX savings resulting from the dropping of new pension TO PROPERLY FUND SOCIAL SECURITY FOR THE TAXPES SINCE THATS 10 year from going BROKE

    3) Have the FEDERAL government stop paying 80% for federal employee families health premium - drop it to 50%,

    4) Increase the FEDERAL employee health insurance deductible to $1000 like most private employers now have,

    5) make all senators and house of representatives serve NO MORE than 2 term limits - ends the power of long term senators, etc to force senators, etc to approve EARMARKS on bills alreday released from committee

    6) Go to a flat tax Federal tax program so the IRS audits can stop (laying off 50% of that organizations tax payer supported staff)

    7) after 1st child's birth to a single mom STOP paying for single mom's child birth , offer free sterilization - more than 1/2 the baby's being born in the US now being paid for by the government (TAXPAYERS in other words) and don't give these single mom's, who are abusing the free childbirth /single mom welfare system by having child after child out of wedlock, money to support more than 1 child

    8) NO Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare benefits to ANYONE NOT A US CITIZEN even if their "citizen" child brings them into the US - as are all being done now for NON Citizens!

    9) Give the President Line Item Veto rights

    10) Give life in prison to ANY politician find guilty of any abuse of power or corruption while in office

    11) OUR prisons - lower the taxes to care for the Prisoners - no more coffee or juice, let them drink water at ALL MEALS, feed them oatmeal/toast for breakfast, peanut butter/jelly sandwiches with crackers for lunch and inexpensive stew (easy to make and serve requiring less kitchen labor) And for medicines make them pay the FULL COST of medicine - why reduce their costs out of taxpayers pockets ? I didn't unjustly put them in prison THEY BROKE the law - suffer the CONSEQUENCES


    STOP THE MADNESS


    P.S. Anyone running on the above platform will WIN any FUTURE elections, so Go for IT you TRUE AMERICANS!

  • Posted By: rho1953 @ 03/12/2009 2:48:20 PM

    How about the coming onslaught from energy taxes? An estimated 800 BILLION in new taxes for 2010. That will hurt the working class and send millions of jobs overseas. We can't do this without further massive damage to the economy.

  • Posted By: Chuck054 @ 03/01/2009 5:31:19 PM

    Response to christopherkidwell1 : per the National Taxpayers Union web site (2006 tax year), the top 1% pay 39.89% of Federal income tax, top 5% pay 60.14% of fed tax, and top 10% pay 70.79% of taxes. (http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=6). When we throw around talk about cutting out lies, let's try to practice what we preach. Where you are correct that they do not pay 90%, you're also way off in your claim that they only pay 15%. Thanks.

    • Posted By: commish0303 @ 03/12/2009 10:26:02 AM

      As usual the only tax discussed is income taxes, and that is misleading. Most people pay more payroll taxes than income taxes, but you dont address these taxes. Further the % you pay is meaningless as long as deductions are allowed that distort what the income really is. What about the drug dealers who make millions and pay no income taxes? A true discussion on taxes must include shifting to a national sales tax and what exemptions should be allowed to make it fair?

  • Posted By: CEASE-FIRE @ 03/10/2009 5:30:29 PM

    It's time the "Sons of Liberty" regrouped, once again. Time to overthrow this ignorant government of ours, per our Constitutional rights, and restore an honest and just system for all of us.

    • Posted By: JustAThought56 @ 03/11/2009 11:39:30 AM

      We do not need any repeats of the Oklahoma City Murragh Federal Building bombing, and we certainly do not need another Civil War. Forget Chuck Norris, turn off Glenn Beck's War Room and try to get an ounce of common sense. You are not concerned that your Constitutional rights are being threatened or you would have been up in arms over the NSA warrantless surveillance program. Your sense that the white male majority is slipping is the thing that is making you concerned.

      Relax. Take a look at the composition of the Senate. All white except for one black man who is apparently on his way out, and almost all male. And the House. Almost all white and almost all male.

      So don't give us this "Sons of LIberty" nonsense. That is nothing but code for "KKK." And your talk is treason and sedition. President Obama has the unqualified support of the military and the War Room panel musings that he does not will get a lot of people killed for no reason at all. PS Everyone has guns now.

  • Posted By: paofpa @ 03/10/2009 9:00:23 PM

    A few years back, thousands of people got their doctorates in Latin. They are now asleep. Looking at the FED???s for the past years, it is time for the MacroEconomists to go to sleep.

  • Posted By: rogerally @ 03/06/2009 11:40:03 PM

    End the wars. End the stimulus spending. That will turn things around. All the money flows toward Washington. No one else has money because of fiscal policies of Bush and Obama.

    • Posted By: jkhippchen1 @ 03/09/2009 2:14:34 PM

      Really? I have money. Everyone I know has money. Maybe not as much as before the crisis, but nobody is drinking the coolaid. The unemployment rate is roughly 8% now, which means that the employment rate is 92%. We'll all get through this crisis, the economy will come roaring back, and we'll be just fine.

  • Posted By: ainnbeen @ 03/03/2009 8:24:48 AM

    It is true that crisis revealed flaws, taught us accurately many very important lessons, make us more vigorous. But reaching to that point where we are be able to collect fruits of crisis it takes long long time, hardships.There are challenges: how the world is facing unemployment, poverty, hunger, health care and more important their breed terrorism? the result does not seem satisfied.

  • Posted By: Bopper2 @ 02/28/2009 11:49:46 AM

    Could have agreed with you on everything but the "Buy American" argument. Every country does this and to say we should be sheep and continue sending our money ($800 Billion trade deficit) out of our country where it does ZERO for our economy is a good thing is stupid. If they weren't there would be Chevys and Fords all over Japan and Korea and Maytag refrigerators all over Europe, which there's not. I get tired of everyone bending us over and sticking it to us and we're supposed to take it and smile.

  • Posted By: christopherkidwell1 @ 02/27/2009 2:21:57 AM

    We shouldn't have allowed banks to get so big in the first place. As I have quoted from another person on USAToday "To big to fail means too big to exist, PERIOD!" We should have been encouraging a lot of SMALL banks in this country, not a bunch of super-large, super-banks.
    Bubblehead.... the top 10% do NOT pay 90% of the taxes. Cut that lie out right now, they pay about 15% of the taxes, not 90%.

  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 02/15/2009 5:59:00 PM

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123423402552366409.html

    How much will the stimulus package moving in Congress really stimulate the economy?

    By GARY S. BECKER and KEVIN M. MURPHY
    Mr. Becker, the 1992 Nobel economics laureate, is professor of economics at the University of Chicago and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Mr. Murphy, a MacArthur Fellow, is an economics professor at the University of Chicago and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

    "The increased federal debt caused by this stimulus package has to be paid for eventually by higher taxes on households and businesses. Higher income and business taxes generally discourage effort and investments, and result in a larger social burden than the actual level of the tax revenue needed to finance the greater debt. The burden from higher taxes down the road has to be deducted both from any short-term stimulus provided by the spending program, and from its long-run effects on the economy. . . .

    Our own view is that the short-term stimulus from the legislation before Congress will be smaller per dollar spent than is expected by many others because the package tries to combine short-term stimulus with long-term benefits to the economy. Unfortunately, short-term and long-term gains are in considerable conflict with each other. Moreover, it is very hard to spend wisely large sums in short periods of time. Nor can one ever forget that spending is not free, and ultimately it has to be financed by higher taxes."

    • Posted By: treetracker @ 02/20/2009 1:19:15 AM

      Anything that comes out of the Hoover Institute, I don't put much credibility in. Please provide data from a NON-PARTISAN economic think tank.

      Beyond that, your source does not even discuss the fact that all this money going out into the economy will also generate taxes back into the Treasury in the form of income taxes, business tax, etc. So some of the output will be returned to the Treasury in that way. Ultimately, there will probably be some increase in taxes for someone. I suggest it come from the repeal or expiration of the Bush tax cut that cost the Treasury between 2001-06 $1.2 trillion in lost revenues - the overall cost of the stimulus (including interest). So in 5 years, this money could be paid back if that tax cut is repealed. So stop crying in your beer. It's not nearly as bad as others would like you to believe.

    • Posted By: Holly Garfield @ 02/15/2009 8:20:59 PM

      How much will the stimulus package help the economy? That???s the 64 billion dollar question. As your comment notes, there are both upsides and downsides to the package, or any government intervention. We need to maximize the difference between the upside and downside. The package will raise future taxes, but a lack of action will reduce future income, which will lower tax revenue. The biggest problem is that we are dealing with a situation that is massive, complex and which no one has shown to have any kind of working crystal ball. About the only thing government action has produced is an expensive package which has avoided a major immediate catastrophe but has otherwise produced nothing significant for the economy. About the only thing all of the experts have produced is that not one of them seems to have a real handle on the situation. As soon as one of them has a working theory something shows up to throw a monkey wrench into that theory. Mathematically, the number of unknowns exceeds the number of known independent variables, therefore a solution is unknowable. But that is what will make this situation so interesting to future Nobel laureates.

  • Posted By: neocon @ 02/18/2009 1:23:51 PM

    Obama had created his own controversy by warning the American public and pressuring Congress that an economic catastrophe would occur if the stimulus package was delayed ??? then taking off the President Day's weekend to fly to Chicago with his family and dining with his wife at a trendy restaurant.
    The process that generated the legislation reflected Washington at its worst, with the dominant Democrats pushing through a package that received limited public airing and virtually no Republican support.
    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will not create or save the 4 million jobs Obama has repeatedly promised, and if so how do you measure success? The cures being offered by the government should have only limited positive impact on the economy, but they do offer the promise of much higher inflation.
    The current crisis has developed and evolved during the last four decades, as trade and economic policies ??? counter to the interests of much of the U.S. citizenry ??? have resulted in the significant loss of high paying domestic production or technical jobs, where production operations have been lost to offshore competition, or simply moved offshore.
    The U.S. Treasury is preparing to borrow up to $2.5 trillion in 2009 to cover the anticipated 2009 federal budget deficit, followed by borrowing another $4 trillion in 2010, with the prospect of increasing the current $10 trillion U.S. national debt by 65 percent in the first two years of the Obama administration.
    According to the 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government put out by the CBO the true current obligations of the federal government, as determined by the U.S. Treasury using GAAP, or Generally Accepted Accounting Practice, rules, totaled $65.5 trillion in 2008, exceeding the gross domestic product of the world.
    The magnitude of deficit spending required by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will create hyper-inflation in the United States no later than 2014.
    Hyperinflation occurs when currency devaluation dramatically reduces purchasing power.

  • Posted By: Holly Garfield @ 02/18/2009 6:58:38 AM

    This stimulus bill at least creates public sector jobs and also puts more money in the hands of the consumer and businesses rather than in the banks. This might create the demand that can restart private sector employment. Now there will be more spending money without increasing debtload. There is hope. It seems unlikely that all of the stimulus money can be spent, so the total cost may be significantly lower than the proposed bill. There simply may not be enough public sector projects to spend all of the money. But that can be good news in its own way. This is a triple dip recession so far. Let's hope that the tird time's the charm.

    • Posted By: neocon @ 02/18/2009 1:19:36 PM

      Obama had created his own controversy by warning the American public and pressuring Congress that an economic catastrophe would occur if the stimulus package was delayed then taking off the President Day's weekend to fly to Chicago with his family and dining with his wife at a trendy restaurant.
      The process that generated the legislation reflected Washington at its worst, with the dominant Democrats pushing through a package that received limited public airing and virtually no Republican support.
      The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will not create or save the 4 million jobs Obama has repeatedly promised, and if so how do you measure success? The cures being offered by the government should have only limited positive impact on the economy, but they do offer the promise of much higher inflation.
      The current crisis has developed and evolved during the last four decades, as trade and economic policies ??? counter to the interests of much of the U.S. citizenry ??? have resulted in the significant loss of high paying domestic production or technical jobs, where production operations have been lost to offshore competition, or simply moved offshore.
      The U.S. Treasury is preparing to borrow up to $2.5 trillion in 2009 to cover the anticipated 2009 federal budget deficit, followed by borrowing another $4 trillion in 2010, with the prospect of increasing the current $10 trillion U.S. national debt by 65 percent in the first two years of the Obama administration.
      According to the 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government put out by the CBO the true current obligations of the federal government, as determined by the U.S. Treasury using GAAP, or Generally Accepted Accounting Practice, rules, totaled $65.5 trillion in 2008, exceeding the gross domestic product of the world.
      The magnitude of deficit spending required by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will create hyper-inflation in the United States no later than 2014.
      Hyperinflation occurs when currency devaluation dramatically reduces purchasing power.

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