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Aside from the human toll, there is an economic cost. Last year immigrant labor comprised 6 percent of Russian output, and demand for foreign labor is only expected to grow. Russia's working population has been falling steadily as a result of soaring death rates and disastrously low birthrates through the late 1980s and '90s. The State Statistics Service estimates that the country's workforce will fall by some 8 million people over the next seven years. In August, President Dmitry Medvedev was talking of Russia's "labor famine." "This problem is greater than any other facing us over the next 10 years," says economist Yevgeny Yasin.

But the damage is already done. Research last year by the International Organization for Migration showed that 76 percent of immigrants had no intention of staying in Russia for more than a few years, or bringing their families there. In the hostile new climate, the exodus of workers is likely to be as dramatic as their influx—and those remaining are likely to reap more of Russia's anger at growing unemployment and poverty.

© 2009

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