In the print edition of Newsweek dated February 23, 2009 (p. 26), they added a a picture depicting North Korea's missiles to this article. The photo caption read, "TOYS FOR TYRANTS: The North's missiles." But as anyone familiar with the Korean language can see from the words inscribed on the missiles, they are South Korea's missiles, not those of North Korea. This is because the phrase "Dae Han Yook Gun" is translated as "The Republic of Korea Army," not as "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea Army." For this name, the North Koreans use "Chosun" instead of "Dae Han." Second, it needs to be noted that the military uniform shown in the picture belongs to the Republic of Korea Army, not to the North Korean Army.
I am not sure whether this mistake has resulted from Noland's lack of proficiency in the Korean language or not. I sincerely hope that that is not the case, because if he does not understand Korean, he is not likely to provide valid arguments over North Korea's "bad behavior." Unfortunately, however, there are many "experts" who do not understand the language of the country they are analyzing. I hope that Noland is not one of them.
As a "would-be" expert on North Korea, I just need to raise one question: Is the North Korean regime "irrational" in terms of survival strategy? My answer is a definite no. This is largely because the notoriously cruel regime knows what they are doing. They are keenly aware of their geopolitical strengths and weaknesses and take advantage of the presence of its "big brother" to ensure their very survival. Strategically speaking, China needs North Korea to survive and maintain "good" relationships with it. In a sense, the North Korean regime is a shrewd player in the arena of international politics, which requires "experts" to stop thinking ideally and begin thinking "outside the box" and coming up with more realistic ways of controlling the enigmatic regime. Only then can they provide plausible methods to contain and civilize the North Korean regime. If that happened, that would contribute to the peace and stability of the international community as well as on the Korean Peninsula.
Take Away Their Mercedes
Past sanctions on North Korea, like those banning luxury goods, haven't worked because states cheated.
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Last September, satellite photos of North Korea revealed construction of a large new missile-launch facility near the Chinese border. Now speculation is growing that Pyongyang may be about to test a multistage rocket, one potentially capable of reaching the U.S. West Coast. South Korean intelligence officials estimate that the launch site is 80 percent complete, and their U.S. counterparts claim the North is moving forward with preparations, including engine tests.
Should Pyongyang fire its new weapon, it would be just the latest in a recent string of bellicose moves, including abrogation of all military accords with Seoul (which led the South to raise the alert level of its forces). Some pundits see this aggressiveness as an attempt to punish the conservative South Korean government for jettisoning the "sunshine policy" of its predecessors and making further economic aid conditional on North Korean reform. Others see it as a test of the new Obama administration. Still others say it reflects a power struggle in the North—or that it's a test drive for potential arms buyers like Iran, Syria and Libya.
Pyongyang will probably claim a test launch represents none of the above. After a 1998 launch, for instance, it insisted its only goal was to loft into orbit a satellite warbling "immortal revolutionary hymns," such as the "Song of General Kim Il Sung," at 27 megahertz.
Whatever the truth, President Obama will find himself in an awkward situation: having said that he'll negotiate with U.S. enemies, he'll also feel compelled to respond to a provocation. This, most likely, will mean a return to the U.N. During the campaign, candidate Obama promised that if North Korea reneged on its international commitments, he'd lead a multilateral effort aimed at "suspending energy assistance, reimposing sanctions that have recently been waived and considering new restrictions."
There's just one problem: U.N. sanctions have been tried before, and failed. Following North Korea's last major missile launch, in July 2006, the U.N. Security Council demanded that Pyongyang suspend all ballistic-missile activities and re-establish an earlier moratorium on launches. The U.N. also imposed limited economic sanctions, which were broadened that October following a nuclear test to include heavy weapons and luxury goods.
Yet none of these measures changed North Korea's behavior, probably because they were implemented less than zealously. Some states that have bought Pyongyang's weapons before, like Iran and Ethiopia, refused to file reports with the U.N. Meanwhile, the U.N. resolution left the definition of luxury goods and the implementation of the embargo up to individual countries, enabling Russia to exclude watches under $2,000 and fur coats under $10,000. China—North Korea's largest trade partner—declined to even publish a list of embargoed goods, and it appears that Chinese luxury exports to the North actually increased. Such goodies matter greatly to Kim, who uses handouts, ranging from Mercedes sedans to Hennessy cognac, to buy political loyalty.
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