Sarkozy of Arabia

Later, when the Americans and Saudis failed to find a way to stabilize the Lebanese government after many months of political crisis, the French and the Qataris stepped in and succeeded. "There was no president [of Lebanon], there was no government, there was no parliament, and the only thing there was were bombings," Sarkozy recalled as he toured the Gulf last month. "But we found the key to the door." And it would seem to have been in the Qatari capital of Doha, which hosted the meeting where the Lebanese deal was done.

But now that relationship may be fraying. Some of Sarkozy's advisers are concerned that Qatar may have slipped too far into the Iranian orbit. After the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese war, it underwrote much of the reconstruction in South Lebanon for which the Iranian-backed Hizbullah militia took credit. In January, during the Israeli invasion of Gaza, Qatar hosted a conference for the most radical opponents of Israel—and of the Palestinian Authority—including Hamas and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

One of Sarkozy's advisers, speaking privately, suggests that as tensions over Iran's nuclear program look likely to increase, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against Western allies goes up as well, the Qataris are terrified they'll be at the top of Tehran's target list. Their instinct may be to accommodate rather than resist. So Sarkozy's advisers are encouraging him to do a better job diversifying French relationships in the Gulf. To that end, when he traveled through the region in February, he skipped Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which he'd visited last year in any case, and focused instead on Kuwait, Oman and Abu Dhabi. Being perfectly blunt, he told the press that "these are three countries where there are British traditions and a marked American influence and France hasn't invested in them politically or commercially for a long time." But "we're planting the seeds and we'll fight to defend our businesses and take home contracts."

Neither Sarkozy nor his foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, have done much to articulate the overarching strategic vision behind their activity in the region, but if one exists there are clues to understanding it in a recent book, "Beyond Terror and Martyrdom," by the scholar Gilles Kepel, who accompanied Sarkozy on both of his major trips to the Gulf. Kepel argues that Sarkozy should look for far more than fleeting diplomatic peace initiatives, lucrative arms sales and school openings. He suggests that regional stability in the greater Middle East can be fully achieved only through broad economic integration between Europe (which has the experience and diplomatic expertise), the Gulf states (which have some of the last great cash reserves in the world) and the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean (which have burgeoning populations).

It's a grand plan, and eventually the Kepel approach may be a driving force in French policy. But it's also the kind of brilliant vision that can run afoul of countless dreary details. Consider, for instance, what's happening at the spectacular mansion known as l'Hôtel Lambert on the tip of the Île St-Louis in the very heart of Paris. Arguably there's no more historic home in the city. Voltaire himself once dwelled there, and wrote of it as "a house made for a king who would be a philosopher." Now, having been bought by a prince who is brother to the emir of Qatar for a reported €80 million, it's due for some major alterations including a new elevator to the prince's bedroom and an underground parking garage. Preservationists are up in arms, and the Qatari designs may yet be frustrated.

Will the privileged relations between Doha and Paris be affected? Probably not. But, then, the Qataris could afford to pay the taxes, too. In the highly personalized diplomacy of the Arab world, every little favor counts, and every slight is remembered. It's a subtle, sometimes unsavory game, but now that France is playing it alongside the United States instead of against it, the goal of stabilizing the Middle East may be well served.

© 2009