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We have focused on the United States, because it is the epicenter of the crisis, and because the quantitative comparisons are so striking. But one could just as well have been looking at a host of other countries around the globe, most of which are swept up in the maelstrom.

Might things be better than our historical benchmark? Should we, like the group of 20 finance ministers meeting in London last weekend, keep believing in the possibility of sustained strong growth by the end of the year? Today's fiscal and monetary policies are certainly a lot better than what the world saw in the Great Depression of the 1930s. On the other hand, the current crisis is far more global than any seen since the '30s, when most countries took a decade to grow back to where they had started.

Financial crises don't last forever. But this one could last a lot longer if policymakers don't start basing their actions on more realistic assessments of where we are and what is likely still to come.

Reinhart is a professor of economics at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. Rogoff is the Thomas D. Cabot professor of public policy and professor of economics at Harvard University.

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: memo2 @ 04/01/2009 8:16:34 AM

    We all know finaly now part of the truth that is why I said many times before we need to satart selecting in each state hwo's going to represent us at the congress not in eight years from now, I'm talking from now from this month we need to be more open mind to understand hwo will represent each state!, we are the only ones can make this happen we need more honest people and we need to clean the congress with some bad apples.
    Another comment the problem is not the borrowers us the problem is with the financial institutions over the exaggerated incraces on the interest rate, congress new this all time since 1980, and just they play with it on different way's they new it and just they let it pass year after year, until now if you see the minimum rate of interest on credit card's is 17% , Housing is in some tiny states 4.45% or so , but the real problem all this people don't want give up, and prices still the same that is the real problem not only for us but for other's just can't buy almost anything here in this Country !. and tha is why we dont have any revenue since 1985, now not only killing us they killing they self's, and this end now some Country's trying to fix all this economic crisis dilemma they make they self''s, 30 year's ago Mr:Obama make a comment we only blame them for this economic situation well do we have reason to blame them or not? yes we are, are they have a plan we don't know yet because too much talk but nothing in concrete, just my comment we keep posted !......

  • Posted By: Open-minded @ 03/27/2009 8:13:19 PM

    Want to have a better understanding of what is actually happening? Please watch the Zeitgeist movie at www.zeitgeistmovie.com very educational and enlightening.

  • Posted By: Open-minded @ 03/27/2009 8:09:40 PM

    I invite those who really want to have a deeper understanding of the political game and the origin of all financial crisis to take a look at the movie zeitgeist at
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912 or www.zeitgeistmovie.com
    Please have an open mind and be ready to be shocked. Only the truth will set you free. Those politician can not solve this financial crisis. The majority of us are brainwashed by the media, the political game and the financial institutions.
    All I can guarantee is that this movie is mind opening.

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