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Just how important is Tiger Woods? Consider that in the eight months since he's been out of the game with an injury to his left knee, followed by reconstructive surgery, television ratings for big golf tournaments have reportedly dropped by about half, with similar declines in the size of the crowds that come out to watch. His return this year will restore those ratings, and his presence will force competitors to raise their game, further increasing excitement and enthusiasm for the sport.
Indeed, Tiger couldn't be back at a better time. Like all businesses, the tour is struggling economically. It relies on sponsorships from the auto and banking industries—two of the hardest-hit sectors—and lower TV ratings translate into even less interest from potential sponsors. Tiger's return provides a welcome and much-needed boost; one U.S. newspaper even referred to him as a "one-man stimulus package." The big question, though, is just how good he will be. His injury has forced him to stop practicing for what may have been the longest period since he first picked up a club. Moreover, the injury and subsequent surgery have forced him to change his swing. Yes, Tiger is a champion, but can he return to the heights he once commanded?
My answer is yes—and in fact I believe he will be much better than before. When I was 16, just a year before turning pro, I had a similar injury (although mine was probably from playing rugby), and I suffered through surgery, which forced me to modify my swing. My left knee used to snap up and stiffen at impact, a relatively common mistake and one that often leads to difficulties hitting the ball straight. Tiger had done the same thing, and, in addition to snapping his knee, he used to lift his left heel at impact—a bad habit that seemed to creep into his swing over the years and led to a fair amount of conversation on the senior tour. But now his knee will remain flexed and his heel will stay to the ground on impact, which means Tiger's staggeringly good shot will get even better. Moreover, at the age of 33, he is still very fit and strong. Despite his absence, he has maintained an intensity and a focus that I don't see in anybody else at the moment. Drive is crucial to success at the professional level, and Tiger still has reason to be hungry: with 14 major-championship wins, he is just four away from Jack Nicklaus's record.
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It would be hard to beat the excitement of watching Tiger win the U.S. Open last year, playing virtually on one leg. But his return will undoubtedly bring with it a surge of enthusiasm for the game among fans and sponsors alike. Yet the tour still faces a tough few years ahead, and his presence may not be enough to keep things steady. I have enormous respect for the leadership of golf's governing bodies, especially PGA Tour Commissioner Tim Finchem, and if they were to ask me what I would do to ensure the tour's financial viability, I would offer four suggestions. First, ask players to put 10 percent of prize money into a pool. If the economy rebounds in three years, say, they would get their money back with interest. If the economy suffers, these funds would ensure the continuation of the tournaments. Second, cut $500,000 off the prize money and give it to the sponsor's local charity as a show of good will. Third, ask players to play in two additional Pro Ams, rather than one, which would allow sponsors to bring more clients to tournaments. Fourth, ask the top 30 players to play in a private match with a sponsor and its top clients. Whether the tour or the players would do this is an open question, but it's clear that as talented and as popular as Tiger is, he can't shoulder the burden alone.
His game, however, is proving so far to be just fine. While he was never in the running at the WGC-CA Championship at Doral in March, for instance, he improved as the tournament went on, and showed naysayers he had what it took to win. His big test will come April 9, when—for me, anyway—the golf year really begins. That's the day the professionals drive down Magnolia Lane to the Augusta National Golf Club for the Masters. The Augusta National course is virtually tailor-made for Tiger, with its long fairway and fast, slick greens.
But it's not going to be easy. With Tiger sidelined, other players have gained confidence, including the young Rory McIlroy, the charismatic Ryo Ishikawa and Anthony Kim. I've always maintained loyalty to my fellow South Africans, like Trevor Immelman, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els—I've put $500 on Ernie in Las Vegas to win the Masters, at 35–1. Phil Mickelson now threatens Tiger's 198-week streak at No. 1. Mickelson, a two-time Masters winner, in 2004 and 2006, could also thrive in Augusta this year. So now, after eight months out, the pressure is back on Tiger.
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