Obama began his presidency literally and politically reaching out as far as he could: to Cuba, Russia, Syria and Iran, for example. Here at home, he hunkered down in the Oval Office with congressional Republicans and leaders of corporate America.

He had two purposes. Diplomatically, he wanted to show off his globalist vision and herald a new era of cooperative good will after eight years of President George W. Bush's my-way-or-the-highway style. Domestically, he wanted to demonstrate good will of a different sort in the midst of frightening economic chaos. I'm not here to bury capitalism, his actions declared, but to save it. Yes, there will be medicine to administer to Wall Street and big banks, but it's medicine, not poison, and it was (and is) supposed to be dispensed in the spirit of tough love.

 

NEXT 100 DAYS

Now, The Hard Part

Howard Fineman

For Obama, the next 100 days could be the real test.

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Those efforts have paid off remarkably. Obama's approval ratings remain historically strong and the president appears poised to make meaningful progress across a host of issues in the coming months. But now, to make good on the promise of days 1-100, Obama will have to deal with—and in some cases infuriate—his and our own best friends. Democratic and liberal allies won't necessarily like everything the president will have to do; neither will some of our country's traditional international allies.

Some potential frenemies:

• LABOR UNIONS. During his presidential campaign, Obama wooed labor unions (many of whom favored Hillary Clinton initially) by promising to revisit—even renegotiate—the NAFTA trade agreement, which many in the movement regard as a raw deal for domestic workers. The Obama administration has studiously ignored that promise, and will continue to. The inaction is bad enough from the union point of view, but now Obama, looking to spur global commerce, will want to sign more deals. That won't be an easy sell in his party.
• COAL-STATE DEMOCRATS. This is a weak spot in the otherwise massive Obama coalition. He didn't campaign hard or do very well, in the primaries or the general election, in places where coal (and guns and religion) is still king. His plan to control carbon-dioxide emissions and raise new revenue with a cap-and-trade system is wildly unpopular in some parts of his own party. Two key examples: Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia and Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania.
• BLUE-DOG DEMOCRATS. There is a rump parliament within the Democratic Party that worries above all else about the annual federal deficit and the national debt—both of which are approaching levels not seen since World War II. They tend to be small-town types not particularly enamored of Wall Street, and they are far more culturally conservative than the rest of the party. They never liked Larry Summers all that much anyway. They don't have the numbers to block the president's $3.5 trillion budget, but they can make the process highly unpleasant, and provide an opening wedge for Republican critics.
• MOVEON.ORG TYPES. Obama's desire to let bygones be bygones has no resonance with the antiwar crowd that pushed him forward in the first place. Can they actually make life difficult for him if he doesn't approve a "truth commission" on torture? Probably not in any immediate sense, but he risks losing some organizational enthusiasm at the grass roots—passion that he and the party will need in 2010 and 2012. The MoveOns and their allies also have another weapon at their disposal: lawsuits, which already have forced unpleasant disclosures such as the "torture memos."
• IRAQI LEADERS. Speaking of which, Obama is now dependent on the kindness of newfound friends, the Iraqi government leadership, to smoothly manage the transition away from U.S. control. Early signs are not all that encouraging; Obama will have to be more vigilant and more involved than he might have hoped.
• AFPAK. The leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan are supposed to be our friends, too, but their work so far in containing the Taliban has been frighteningly inept and lax, most independent observers say. This is supposed to be the front line in what we no longer call the "war on terror." These are our buddies. Really?
• EUROPE. All was smiles and self-congratulation at the G20 summit, and our friends in Europe joined with our president in promising $1 trillion in stimulative spending to help revive the world. We haven't seen the money yet. Nor were the Europeans willing to back with troops their alleged commitment to holding the anti-Taliban line in the Persian Gulf region. Smiles fade, and Europe's leaders are dead set against another Obama aim: allowing NATO-member Turkey (perhaps our most pivotal ally in the whole Middle East) to join the European Economic Union.
• ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS. The Israelis are, with good reason, our staunchest allies in the Middle East, but they don't share Obama's "yes, we can" sense of hope about others in the neighborhood. If the president is going to make progress toward a settlement of the age-old disputes in the region, he may have to face—and face down—Israeli protests. But he's going to have to lean on the Palestinians, too. Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority, is supposed to be the most moderate and pro-American Arab leader in the area, but just the other day he said he didn't accept the idea of a Jewish state in the region. Good luck with that one, Mr. President. Maybe save it for your 300th day.

© 2009