Here Comes Hillary

Next up, Iran. As Tehran continues to build up its uranium-enrichment program—it is now believed to have enough low-enriched uranium for a bomb—Israeli patience is growing short while the Obama administration attempts to launch a dramatic strategic shift. While the administration is not talking in specifics right now, the new approach to Iran appears to have at least two new elements: one, American negotiators will take the lead from the Europeans, if Tehran agrees; and two, everything will be put on the table at once, from the nuclear program to Iran's support for Hezbollah and Shiite factions in neighboring Iraq. The Bush administration, by contrast, refused for most of its eight years to engage Tehran directly, except in a piecemeal fashion on individual issues such as Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. officials have also begun to use different language related to what is acceptable: while the Bush administration talked about shutting down Tehran's uranium enrichment entirely, the Obama team talks simply about preventing a bomb. That suggests Washington may be willing, for the first time, to condone some Iranian enrichment under tight safeguards and monitoring. Tehran is still temporizing on whether to talk, but Obama's biggest problem in the months to come may be selling the new approach to Israel.

The Jewish state's new hard-line prime minister, Bibi Netanyahu, is scheduled to meet with President Obama in mid-May, and it appears the two already disagree on "sequencing." Netanyahu wants to address Iran before he takes up the peace process with the Palestinians, while the Obama team wants to push ahead on all fronts together.

And then, of course, there is that old stalwart of the Axis of Evil, North Korea, which provocatively launched another test of its intercontinental Taepodong II missile in early April. The test was not a total success, but neither have been U.S. efforts to dismantle Pyongyang's nuclear program. With leader Kim Jong Il still apparently suffering from the effects of a stroke, the Obama administration may have to start from scratch here. During her trip to Asia in February, Clinton bluntly said that U.S. officials need to prepare for Kim's possible departure from power.

Beyond that, Obama and Clinton are trying to strike a new tone with China—Hillary astonished many with her frank acknowledgement that America is literally in China's debt, appealing for continued purchases of U.S. Treasuries—as well as with Russia. Obama has floated the idea of using missile defense as a bargaining chip, in return for Moscow's help in containing Iran, and he wants a new round of nuclear-arms-reduction talks.

It's going to be a busy hundred days.

© 2009