City of Fear

These statistics, however, may not be reliable. Some Mexican doctors say that some swine-flu deaths have not been recorded as such because patients were not tested for the virus; others suggest that Mexican health authorities may be trying to conceal the extent of the crisis. In Mexico City's state-owned Darío Fernández Hospital, for example, four patients were admitted to the intensive-care unit in the last week suffering from pneumonia. All showed symptoms of swine flu, and two died last Friday. Yet their death certificates made no mention of the virus because the victims were not tested for it.

Another physician, who spoke with NEWSWEEK en Español but asked not to be identified, claimed that in the Gea González Hospital—the biggest facility run by the Ministry of Health in Mexico City—doctors have been explicitly told not to record pneumonia as a cause of death. "You must say that they died of cardiac arrest or anything else," said the physician about the instruction given to them. (The Ministry of Health did not comment on these allegations ahead of NEWSWEEK en Español's deadline this week.)

Meanwhile, scientists from around the world are working closely with Mexico to solve the mysteries of the mutated virus and to prevent it from establishing itself as a pandemic. Frank Plumber, director of Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory, found that the samples sent to his facility indicated the virus was related both to one found in North America several years ago and to a Euro-Asian variety of swine flu detected in Thailand. With so much unknown, doctors are extrapolating information based on their previous experiences with Asian bird flu. That may not always be appropriate. Initial indications, for example, suggest that the swine flu may be transmitted differently, because—unlike instances of bird flu—not all of those in close contact with the ill have been infected themselves. Another unanswered question is why the virus seems to affect some more virulently than others, with the bulk of the deaths so far coming mainly from Mexico.

Researchers are also struggling to find an effective vaccine, a development that is expected to take several months. Mexico's government has allocated additional funds to adapt the country's two biosecurity labs and to invest in the hunt for antigens. For now, Mexican doctors are focusing on treatment with antivirals like oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza). For Camacho, the former mayor, the treatment seems to have worked. Last Sunday, three days after he was hospitalized, doctors told him he was out of danger. Mexico, though, remains at risk on both the health and business fronts.

This report was adapted from an article originally published in the May 4 edition of NEWSWEEK's Spanish-language partner, NEWSWEEK en Español.

© 2009