TECHTONIC SHIFTS

Time For A Trade-In

Prius-style hybrids may become the first victims of the disruptive technology shift that's hitting the auto industry.

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  • Posted By: jlenem @ 06/15/2009 10:29:25 AM

    I always chuckle at those guys that call hybrids, like the Prius, "golf carts", as they drive their pickups and gas guzzlers along the freeway. It takes some people a long time to learn, but they show their stupidity to the world., I'd buy a Prius, but I have a 2000 Civic with 146,000 miles that is getting 36 miles per gallon - yes it its - and it doesn't really think it's right when I get it up to 80 mph on those freeways to go with the golf players.

  • Posted By: Frank Eggers @ 06/04/2009 4:21:44 PM

    According to the article, "In a plug-in hybrid, you have both an electric motor and a gas engine, but only the electric motor powers the wheels." NOT TRUE!!

    There are 2 different ways to make a plug-in hybrid. It can be a parallel hybrid, as described above, with provision to re-charge the battery by plugging the car in. Or, it can be a series hybrid, in which only the electric motor drives the wheels. EITHER type can be plugged in, and BOTH are hybrids.

  • Posted By: medidan @ 06/03/2009 1:23:31 PM

    The ICE will surely remain the main prupulsion means for a while, especialy if the artificial low price of oil in the US remains as it is, but you are in a bit of a hurry to declare the Prius obsolete.
    When the price of oil was $4 a galon, the Prius was a big hit and Toyota could not face the demand.
    When the price of oil will reach $8, like in Europe (and it will not take long for that) the "obolete" Prius will be taken off the lots like hot bread.
    Besides, the slump in sales was present for all manufacturers, not for Hybrids only. This is probably one of the reasons that GM is bankrupt. The global economy is in deep crises Sir. That piece of news has not reached NEWSWEEK yet?

  • Posted By: willdryden @ 05/13/2009 2:20:01 AM

    I wish people would learn more about their topic BEFORE they write articles for such a prestigious publication. The Prius could be a plug-in hybrid if the patent holder of NiMH batteries would allow Toyota to install enough batteries even though it is a parallel hybrid. Some Priuses have been modified to add a plug to them. The current prototypes of plug-in hybrids are serial hybrids and could be built WITHOUT a plug if they had to use the same NiMH batteries. Since they are betting that lithium polymer batteries will last, they can add the plug as there are no patents they have to license.

    • Posted By: JoeReal @ 06/03/2009 1:06:22 PM

      What good is a plug-in Prius if you can't drive it at freeway speed? It would be fine if it is used like a glorified golf-cart as Neighborhood Electric Vehicle if you are lucky to commute to work within the neighborhood. Majority of people's commute to work will involve freeway speeds and Prius will use gas under those circumstances.

  • Posted By: xQQQme @ 05/04/2009 12:27:42 PM

    >> In a plug-in hybrid, you have both an electric motor and a gas engine, but only the electric motor powers the wheels. The gas engine only generates electricity to recharge the battery pack. If you don't travel beyond the range of the battery pack???about 50 miles???the gas engine never starts up, and you run in pure electric mode." <<

    What Dan has described here is the Chevy Volt...NOT necessarily a plug-in hybrid. Yes, plug-in hybrids have more on-board battery capacity and can travel a minimum distance on electric alone. But the gas engines still drive the wheels when needed. Only the Volt powertrain has the gas engine devoted to running the generator for the batteries.

    • Posted By: Braes @ 05/04/2009 12:52:48 PM

      I look at GM's proposed pricerange for the Volt and shudder. I can buy a couple of Honda Insights and still get a latte.

      • Posted By: willdryden @ 05/13/2009 3:24:13 AM

        You can't use cheap electricity for fuel either. Your stuck with the oil companys.

        • Posted By: JoeReal @ 06/03/2009 1:02:52 PM

          If you install net-metering solar PV that can generate electricity for all your household and electric vehicle travel needs, then you can be almost independent of oil and of the energy companies.

      • Posted By: willdryden @ 05/15/2009 5:45:42 AM

        When you factor in the cost of gas vs the cost of electicity and the fact that the Volt will probably last longer (if GM does it right), you will find the Volt a much better value.

  • Posted By: HB Freddie @ 05/18/2009 5:31:40 AM

    At current gas prices you'd have to drive a Prius almost 200,000 miles to make up for the higher price vs. a Corolla. Don't expect consumers to make that sacrifice out of a sense of civic duty.

  • Posted By: aminorjourney @ 05/13/2009 2:57:16 AM

    Daniel,

    The days of the regular gas-engined vehicle are limited. The days of the basic hybrid vehicle are limited too. However, I believe we should iron out a few inaccuracies in your report.

    Firstly, a plug-in hybrid is ANY hybrid which can plug into the main to recharge the battery pack. The auto industry may want you to believe that the current Toyota Prius and the current and older Honda Insight will not be suitable for such an endeavor. However, I can prove that wrong.

    My own car, a 2004 Prius, has been converted, by myself, to a plug-in hybrid. You can see it here: http://www.aminorjourney.com. I am not an engineer. I am a musician. My Prius gets between 800 and 900 miles on a tank of gasoline and 90 kWh of electricity. It cost me £2,000GBP to convert.

    The vehicles you refer to as being 'plug in hybrids' in your post are more commonly known as Extended Range Vehicles, or ERVs for short. ERVs are primarily electric vehicles. If used within their all-electric range they will not turn the engine on. They only burn gasoline when the battery is depleted and the car is not plugged in.

    The original Honda insight used a series hybrid drive train, where the electric motor powered the wheels, but it was originally unable to plug into the mains to charge the battery pack. A fellow Brit has done something similar to my own Prius conversion, but has turned an early Insight to a plug-in hybrid. (www.solarvan.co.uk)

    I'm an electric vehicle advocate; I'd love to see nothing but electric powered vehicles on the road. But we have to make the masses (read regular joe) switch vehicles. And the best way of doing that is through hybrids, then plug in hybrids, then range extended electric, finishing with all electric.

    Finally, I would like to recommend you all read "Plug in Hyrbids. The cars that will recharge America" by Sherry Boschert. It's an in-depth discussion into the future of plug in hyrbids in the US.

  • Posted By: rg807 @ 05/05/2009 12:27:20 AM

    By 1920 battary power, steam, gasoline, the diesel, super charging, turbo charging, 4 valves per cylnder, all wheel drive, water cooling etc had all been invented. In addition, there were hundreds of auto companies competing.

    It isn't true that we are entering the greatest period of invoation, we've already had that, but it does seem likely that we are entering another period of disruptive innovation. This hasn't occured for decades and should be interesting.

    I only hope the USA leads the way again.

    • Posted By: willdryden @ 05/13/2009 2:40:38 AM

      Too Late. China has a 2 year head start. Plug-in hybrids are already on sale there. They are Prius style plug-in hybrids IE parallel plug-in hybrids.

  • Posted By: lastangelman @ 05/12/2009 6:20:57 AM

    Cheap? Gas is cheap? No, gas was cheap before the first term of the Dubya administration. When speculators lost their ass in the market collapse last year and dumped their oil futures contracts, making gas drop as low as $1.39, it eased a hell of a lotta' pain, but now the robbers are at it again, artificially upping the value of oil, they want that sweet $4-$5 dollar a gallon profit. When cars do 100mpg, refiners will inflate prices to $20-$25 a gallon, just to retain their profits. When ninety five percent of cars on road are electric, those fiends will probably have their hooks controlling the distribution of electricity not to mention the solar panel installation and wind turbine industry.

  • Posted By: altenbach @ 05/11/2009 10:31:05 PM

    Prius technology is not obsolete, but truly cutting edge and is still being improved. The quote by Fisker that a prius is "very complicated" is just not true. Most of the complication is in the control software, which is now highly evolved. In many ways the synergy drive train is mechanically much simpler than a conventional gas engine, making it very reliable. For example there is no clutch or torque converter and no gear box or automatic transmission with clutches and bands. There is only a simple, permanently engaged (!) planetary set and a differential, thus eliminating many high wear problem components. Having the same power in a fully electric car with backup engine would mean a 3x bigger electric motor, generator, and all the wiring and electronics to handle much more electric power and also a much larger and heavier battery. This would add significant cost and complexity and weight. The prius is extremely innovative and, all things considered, it is hard to come up with more optimal alternative even in 2009.

  • Posted By: marksteele @ 05/10/2009 10:01:31 AM

    What happens to the big honkin' NMH and Lion batteries when the car is wrecked or reaches the end of its life. Are they difficult to recycle? Do they have to go to special hazmat landfills?

  • Posted By: MVMooney @ 05/09/2009 11:52:26 AM

    Newsom has no backbone. Getting 50 mpg now with low emissions makes a lot of sense as we wait for plug-ins to come out. And, depending on how you drive, either a plug-in or a Prius-like hybrid will likely be among the most eco-friendly ways to drive for quite a while.

  • Posted By: gary goldbladt @ 05/08/2009 9:50:45 PM

    I was recently in a position where I had to buy a new car. I looked at the honda insite, and the smart car. I wasn't impressed with 45 mpg. So I decided to get a regular car and wait for Aptera to reach Texas before buying my dream green car.

  • Posted By: rvalencia @ 05/08/2009 8:28:54 PM

    My Prius gen 2 has a factory fitted EV button. Current Prius PHEV battery upgrade kit extends this EV mode.

  • Posted By: rvalencia @ 05/08/2009 8:24:09 PM

    My Prius Gen 2 has an EV button. A Prius A123 battery PHEV conversion pack extends this mode.

  • Posted By: internetcarguy @ 05/04/2009 7:18:49 PM

    Prius is the undisputed leader in hybrid technology. The new 2010 Prius matches and surpasses its predessor with new design, leading-edge technology, true midsize comfort and convenience and world-class economy. The all electric cars that exist are pricey, small and have limited range and capability for the average consumer. How is that a better solution?

    • Posted By: benzster @ 05/06/2009 4:15:45 PM

      The Stuttgart-based company is the world???s first carmaker to successfully adapt lithium-ion technology ??? currently used predominantly in consumer electronics ??? to the heavy demands of production passenger cars.
      M-B S400 BlueHYBRID Currently produced

      • Posted By: meridian1 @ 05/07/2009 10:20:49 AM

        The prius has the highest resale value of any automobile worldwide(sorry Benz).Mercedes may have a lithium right now but this technology is wasted on the Benz brand which has a recent history of poor reliability(consumer Reports),even poorer than that of American made automobiles.
        Unless Germany can produce a reliable chassis on which to put a good battery,I don't see benz taking the crown from Toyota in the next five years.In five years I'm sure Japan will have taken Li-on tech to a whole new level.

        • Posted By: benzster @ 05/07/2009 5:28:40 PM

          I reread the article and while resale is an interesting topic, technology was the basis of this article. More concisely, battery technology. Hence my mention of M-B leading technology and innovation by designing and producing a vehicle currently using an award winning Lithium-ion battery in a way that is both safe and having less impact on our environment. It is about innovation and moving foreword with technology. Neither of which Toyota has done with the new model Prius. So for now, "dust to dust", carbon footprints, and resale value aside, Daimler AG is using advanced technology as mentioned in this article in a current vehicle while Toyota is not. When Toyota puts a LI battery in a Prius Daimler AG will have a fuel cell car in production......see you then.

  • Posted By: hannahbug09 @ 05/04/2009 7:32:06 PM

    By switching to these new all electric cars, there can't be much of a difference in our impact on the world around us. I mean, yes, we will be using less oil and gas, but if I'm not mistaken, the battery life won't last as long as in your standard car, or even a Prius, So by switching to these electric cars, we are reducing our gasoline pollutants, but instead contributing even more harmful chemicals that are used to store power in the electric batteries. That waste from the batteries is just as, if not more, harmful to our environment. I cannot see how we can reduce our impact by using these new all electric cars. If you really want to be enviro-friendly, stop driving all-together. If that's not an option, stop being snobs and jump on the public transit.

    • Posted By: benzster @ 05/06/2009 4:26:11 PM

      Lithium-ion batteries have the lowest environmental impact of all battery technologies. 10yr life and 600,000 cycles is the estimate for the new Daimler AG (not USA) CURRENTLY produced battery.

      In the current C-Class, 85 percent of the material is recyclable and 95 percent is reusable

      The M-B HYBRID "model offers a comprehensive range of hybrid characteristics, including a user-friendly stop/start function for the petrol engine, boost effect and regenerative braking."
      http://www.pressportal.com.au/news/301/ARTICLE/4175/2009-01-19.html
      Who says the racetrack never makes it to the show room, boost effect and regenerative braking are currently being used (unless the racetrack is in Bristol).

    • Posted By: benzster @ 05/06/2009 4:11:51 PM

      You may be correct in that the battery in a hybrid will not last as long, unless it is the battery in a Mercedes-Benz. The Lithium-ion battery in the CURRENTLY produced (sorry Prius) Mercedes-Benz S400 blueHYBRID is a 600,000 cycle 10yr battery. I am sure the 25 patents on this technology will be shared, just as crumple zones, seatbelts, ABS, ESP, ASR, seat squibs, and the hundreds of other patents that M-B has brought to the auto industry.

      Unfortunately, Daimler AG is not a US company.

      "The new model offers a comprehensive range of hybrid characteristics, including a user-friendly stop/start function for the petrol engine, boost effect and regenerative braking." http://www.pressportal.com.au/news/301/ARTICLE/4175/2009-01-19.html
      Regenerative braking, boost effect....who says the racetrack never makes it to the showroom (as long as the racetrack is not in Bristol).

      F cell vehicles will be produced in 2010. There are 100 being tested and of those 20 are in the US NOW.

      85% of the current C Class is recyclable and 95% is reusable
      A total of 32 components for the C-Class are produced using renewable raw materials
      M-B uses UV hardened paint reducing energy use and harmful solvents.

      Thank You M-B/ Daimler AG

      BTW a 2 stroke supercharged turbo diesel vehicle that charges batteries powering an electric motor hybrid just passed my office....and it was hauling a bunch of Prius' using less fuel than it would take to drive themselves(along with a bunch of coal and boxcars.

  • Posted By: regulator1956 @ 05/04/2009 4:55:29 PM

    What is wrong with people's comprehension? A Volt does not have a 40-mile limit or a 100-mile limit. It goes "up to" 40 miles on batery and then the gasoline engine kicks in and provides electricity to the battery/electric motor. The Volt goes hundreds of miles until it needs GASOLINE. Add gasoline and it goes hundreds more miles.

    Why are people so thick ???

    • Posted By: BobCranwell @ 05/05/2009 11:49:44 AM

      Unfortunately, at this point the Volt doesn't go anywhere, as it still doesn't exist. I'd love to see it happen, but after years of hearing how great it will be, I lost hope and bought a Prius, which is already in it's third incarnation with incredible owner satisfaction and reliability.

  • Posted By: contrarian troublemaker @ 05/04/2009 2:55:59 PM

    What is the goal of driving these cars? Is it to reduce overall emissions or to have less impact on the environment? A recent study in England concluded that a locally made Land Rover did far less damage in total to the environment than an imported Prius. If we wish to reduce the overall impact you must look at the cars total environmental effect-not just their emissions. Electric cars INCLUDING the Prius can be very damaging overall because of the high nickel content of the batteries used in them. The process of mining nickel is a very damaging to the environment not to mention that it mostly comes from Canada and must then be shipped all over the globe for processing and then shipped back for sale. Electric cars are not yet the eutopia we are told they will be.

    • Posted By: BobCranwell @ 05/05/2009 11:46:39 AM

      The study you mentioned was false, and used incorrect information as the basis for it's conclusions. Unfortunately, when someone releases info as a "study" most folks assume that it was a true scientific study and that the conclusions are accurate. In this case, it was not really a "study" but propaganda which used incorrect data to arrive at an incorrect conclusion.

    • Posted By: McLovinB @ 05/04/2009 4:44:00 PM

      "Electric cars including the Prius"

      You are mistaken. The Prius is not an electric car. All of your criticisms of electric cars might be correct, but the Prius uses fuel to power a smaller battery, enabling it to use existing infrastructure for fuelling, and to avoid many of the problems with batteries that you are writing about.
      So could you say that Prius is limiting damage to the environment by gas emissions? Yes. Could you say that Prius is limiting damage caused to the environment caused by wasteful overuse of batteries? Yes, you could.

      By definition, a utopia cannot exist, so I never believed in one to begin with, but I am pretty sure that Toyota is one step ahead of you in considering the problems you write about.

      • Posted By: WulfgarV @ 05/04/2009 5:45:17 PM

        This "study" has long since been debunked: http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/30974-prius-vs-hummer-exploding-myth.html

      • Posted By: WulfgarV @ 05/04/2009 5:44:36 PM

        This "study" has long since been debunked: http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/30974-prius-vs-hummer-exploding-myth.html

      • Posted By: WulfgarV @ 05/04/2009 5:44:01 PM

        This "study" has long since been debunked: http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/30974-prius-vs-hummer-exploding-myth.html

      • Posted By: WulfgarV @ 05/04/2009 5:43:24 PM

        This "study" has long since been debunked: http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/30974-prius-vs-hummer-exploding-myth.html

  • Posted By: BobCranwell @ 05/05/2009 11:39:23 AM

    Daniel Lyons, you are correct to a point, but you did not research the details of plug-in hybrids adequately. Yes, hopefully Prius-type hybrids will become obsolete in the future, and after that even plug-in hybrids will become obsolete as the battery technology advances to allow affordable and practical all-electric vehicles. But not all plug-in hybrids run solely on electric power with an internal combustion engine to generate electricity and recharge the battery. Some operate exactly as the current Prius does, with added electric-only range due to plug-in charging. And as is obvious by the constant delays in actually bringing the Chevy Volt and the Tesla to market, the battery technology still has a ways to go. Toyota has led the way with the Prius, and I'm fairly confident they will continue to do so with revisions of the Prius, incorporating lithium-ion batteries as soon as they have all the associated problems solved. (Anybody remember the overheating and exploding batteries in cellphones and laptops? Imagine if a battery big enough to power a car were to explode.) The Prius, the hybrid Honda Civic, and the new Honda Insight are still the best available cars for high fuel efficiency and low emmisions. All the talk about upcoming planned autos is just talk until they are actually available. We've been hearing from Chevy about how great the Volt will be for so many years now, but I'm tired of waiting for it, as it still doesn't exist. Meanwhile Toyota has been selling the steadily-improving Prius for nine years.

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