Watching Us Save, One Cart At A Time

At the front of the store, Sprague passes a big display of Emergen-C, a vitamin powder. It's been a hot seller all winter as customers try to stay healthy to avoid missing work. Shoppers are also asking pharmacists questions they once might have asked during a doctor's visit, and making do with over-the-counter remedies instead of prescription drugs.

Even when they reach the registers, customers remain nervous about money. They've become far more likely to shop on paydays, so Sprague recently rejiggered the work schedule to bring in extra cashiers on the 1st and 15th of each month. Cashiers are now constantly hitting the subtotal key (to help customers see a running tally as they scan items) and voiding items to get the final bill under a certain dollar amount. "[Customers are] making buying decisions at the register after [they've] already shopped off a list," Sprague says.

While managers like Sprague watch national data for signs the economy is bottoming out, they're also watching in-store indicators of consumer confidence. Frieson, the senior VP, says a rebound in sales of adult apparel and jewelry will signal to him that the economy is turning up. He's also tracking the percentage of sales that come from groceries versus general merchandise; when more than 40 percent of revenue in a store like Westminster's is coming from groceries, it's a sign people are buying only essentials. "Look in the carts—the carts really tell the story," Frieson says.

Even as Wal-Mart profits during the recession—revenue hit $401 billion last year—its executives admit to one worry: that when the economy strengthens, some of the upscale shoppers who've flocked to Wal-Mart to save money may return to their preferred stores. By some measures, it's a reasonable fear: according to a survey in the May issue of Consumer Reports, Wal-Mart ranked 56th out of 59 grocery chains, due to poor service and lackluster perishables. But some outsiders say Wal-Mart's recent success isn't just driven by customers trading down; it's also spent millions making stores cleaner, brighter and easier to navigate. "I believe Wal-Mart is in a more powerful turnaround … than is widely recognized," says analyst Ed Weller of the research firm ThinkEquity LLC. If he's right, no matter which way the economy moves, the employees who gather each morning at the back of the Westminster store will have plenty of reasons to keep limber.

© 2009