War, Peace and A Political Touch

Let's not get too enthusiastic about democracy in the Middle East. The elections in Lebanon are a welcome development, with the coalition led by Hizbullah and tied to Iran being defeated by a more liberal, Western-leaning slate. But we've seen this before.

In 2005, a lot of us were carried away by the prospect of brave voters flooding to the polls in Iraq and Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt. A year later Iraq was bloodier than ever, Lebanon was at war with Israel, Hamas had taken over the Palestinian parliament and the only Egyptian politician brave enough to challenge Hosni Mubarak for the presidency had been thrown in jail.

That caution aside, it would be a mistake to miss the signs that something is changing for the better just now. For most of modern history, to turn the dictum of Carl von Clausewitz on its head, politics in the Middle East has been the continuation of war by other means. At the international, regional, national and even local level, everything seemed to break down to ideological battles. The Cold War gave way to the clash of civilizations: The world was divided into those who were with us, and those who were with the terrorists.

What was missing, particularly in Washington, was an understanding that politics in the Middle East could be a game of nuance, where complex constituencies with complicated and often conflicting agendas have to be taken into account. And while that is most obvious during free election campaigns, it's true even in monarchies and under authoritarian regimes. What I think and hope we are seeing now is a much more subtle appreciation of the role that politics short of war--indeed, instead of war--can play in reshaping the region.

President Barack Obama's speech in Cairo last week was an evocation of that fresh approach.  Lebanon's elections over the weekend were a window into it. And what may be most surprising is the role that Saudi Arabia, which is utterly undemocratic but highly political, is playing at many different levels. Its long-term goal is to preserve its regime by stabilizing the region through any political and diplomatic means available. And its current challenge--much like that of the United States--is to stop the Iranian political momentum that has been building for the last several years.

In Lebanon, the Saudis gave massive financial support to the victorious coalition of Saad Hariri. As long ago as March, one well-connected operative from Riyadh was telling me privately but with evident pride that his country had spent more in Lebanon, a nation of 4 million, than the record-breaking $715 million Barack Obama's campaign spent in the United States. And even if my source was indulging in wild hyperbole, the extent to which Beirut had become a kind of electoral e-Bay for vote buyers from Riyadh and Tehran made international headlines.