More Health Care Scare

Summary
A new ad from Conservatives for Patients' Rights says that a public health insurance plan now being proposed in Congress "could crush all your other choices, driving them out of existence, resulting in 119 million off their current insurance coverage."

That's misleading. The 119 million figure comes from an analysis of a plan that would mirror Medicare and be open to every individual and business that wanted it. But that's not the type of public plan President Obama has proposed. Nor is such a plan gaining acceptance on Capitol Hill.

The author of the study says that while some have backed the Medicare-like proposal, using the 119 million number "overstates the impact of what now is being considered."

The ad also falsely cites the New York Times as the source of a statement that what's being proposed would leave no consumer choices and "government in control of your health care." The Times didn't say that at all. The newspaper was just quoting claims made by insurance companies and members of Congress.

Analysis
The group Conservatives for Patients' Rights is spending money on the airwaves again, this time warning Americans that the ability to buy health coverage through a public plan — an idea being debated on Capitol Hill — would leave them with "no choices in health insurance." We wrote about one of CPR's ads in April. The new TV spot is a step up from the last effort, but still misleading.

The ad, which began airing this week on CNN and Fox News, asks viewers to "imagine" that a bulldozer is "the massive, government-run insurance plan some in Congress want." Citing a study by the Lewin Group, it says: "This government-run plan could crush all your other choices, driving them out of existence, resulting in 119 million off their current insurance coverage."

CPR Ad: "Bulldozer"
Narrator: There are hundreds of choices in health care plans today. But imagine this is the massive, government-run insurance plan some in Congress want. This government-run plan could crush all your other choices, driving them out of existence, resulting in 119 million off their current insurance coverage, leaving no choices in health insurance and government in control of your health care.

CPR Chairman Rick Scott: It's not too late. Protect your health care choice. Tell Congress to say no to a government-run plan.

The study does include the 119 million number, but "this government-run plan" that the ad refers to is one of six possibilities the Lewin Group analyzed, and the most extreme version of a public plan at that. The type of public plan necessary to cause 119 million people to move from private insurance to a considerably cheaper public option doesn't appear to be gaining traction in Congress. And it isn't what President Obama has proposed. It's certainly true, as the ad says, that "some" legislators have backed a Medicare-like public plan that could undercut private insurers, but casual viewers could easily miss that qualification. As John Sheils, senior vice president of the Lewin Group, says of using the 119 million figure, "In a sense it overstates the impact of what now is being considered on the Hill. But at the same time, it would be really disingenuous for people to say, well, we never meant to do that."

The Lewin Group is part of a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group, which owns the insurer United Healthcare. It says it operates with "editorial independence," and we've often referred to its studies. This report, published April 6, looked at several options for a public plan, including one that would pay health care providers at Medicare-level rates (i.e., a plan that would pay doctors and hospitals less and have much cheaper premiums than private insurance) and be open to all individuals and all businesses. The Lewin Group said such a plan "would enroll about 131.2 million people (includes some uninsured who become covered). The number of people with private health insurance would decline by about 119.1 million people." Attracted to a less costly insurance plan – premiums would be about 30 percent less than those offered by private insurers – businesses, and individuals, would make the switch first, then some private insurers could go out of business, not the other way around, as the ad says. But the study looked at several variations in how a public plan could be structured – at the low end, one type of plan would cause only 10.4 million to move off their current coverage.

The report prominently notes that the type of public plan President Obama proposed on the campaign trail would be available only to individuals, the self-employed and small employers – not to everyone – and therefore, wouldn't pull anywhere near as many people off private insurance. The Lewin Group estimated that if payment rates were like Medicare, a detail Obama didn't specify in his campaign proposal, 42.9 million would enroll in Obama's type of public plan and 32 million would move off of private coverage. The numbers are lower for plans using different payment rates to medical providers.