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Our Sinking Welfare State

 

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Pressures on private and public welfare won't abate. The economic conditions that encouraged corporate welfare have long since vanished. In 1955, GM, Ford and Chrysler controlled 95 percent of U.S. light-vehicle sales. With market dominance and technological leadership, the "Big Three" assumed they could pass along the costs of job guarantees, high wages and benefits to consumers.

Eager to defuse the class warfare of the 1930s—and to avoid unionization—many U.S. companies imitated the model. They, too, believed that competition would be limited and technological change could be controlled. These conceits are gone (in 2008, the Big Three's market share was 48 percent—and dropping). Now companies are hypersensitive to competitive and economic threats. A survey of 141 major companies by the consulting firm Watson Wyatt found that 72 percent have recently cut jobs, 21 percent reduced salaries and 22 percent curtailed 401(k) contributions.

In theory, expanding public welfare could offset eroding private welfare. President Obama's health-care proposal reflects that logic. The trouble is that the public sector also faces enormous cost pressures, driven by an aging population and rising health costs. The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal debt to double as a share of the economy (gross domestic product) to about 80 percent of GDP by 2019.

Any sober examination of figures like these suggests that the system has promised more than it can realistically deliver. We are borrowing not to finance investment in the future but to pay for today's welfare—present consumption. Sooner or later, the huge debt will weaken the economy. Nor would paying for all promised benefits with higher taxes be desirable. Big increases in either debt or taxes risk depressing economic growth, making it harder yet to pay promised benefits.

The U.S. welfare state is inevitably weakening; insecurity is rising. The sensible thing would be to decide which forms of public welfare are needed to protect the vulnerable and to begin paring others. Our inaction poses another dreary parallel with GM. It was obvious a quarter century ago that GM the auto company could not support GM the welfare state. But the union wouldn't surrender benefits, and the company acquiesced. Inertia prevailed, and the reckoning came. The same cycle, repeated on a national scale with sums many multiples higher, would be correspondingly more fearsome.

Samuelson is The author of The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath.

© 2009

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: John14John @ 07/24/2009 1:08:15 PM

    Socialism (programs/more taxes/more government/welfare state) DOES NOT and HAS NOT every worked Just look around the world. It leads to MORE misery. This is the most obvious obserrvation possible. If you're miserable now, you will certainly be more miserable with more govt. STAND UP AND BE AN ADULT. Try hard for once. It's so incredibly easy to not be an idiot in this country.

  • Posted By: John14John @ 07/24/2009 12:56:15 PM

    Welfare state. hmmm. How in the world does someone belong to that fine state in America. There is so much opportunity in this country and people just BLOW it. If you make a REAL effort, work REAL hard, get education (i know of plenty who had no money and still got a degree), develop a real skill, improve your value in the marketplace, etc., than the welfare (parasites and leaches) state would be non-existent. They are coming after your money, effort, work, etc. people. Who? The parasites. The people that find it easier to take you money versus making a REAL effort in life. What are you going to do about it? If you run, you're done. Stand up and FIGHT THIS. FIGHT these people.

  • Posted By: ecantave01 @ 06/27/2009 3:57:36 AM

    When it comes to corporate welfare, one might think that, noblesse oblige, Big Oil would top the list, as they benefited for years (especially the last eight) from horrendous tax subsidies from the Feds. That the oil industry (the Exxons of the world) has been the recipient of such federal largesse defies common sense, considering the astronomical profits they have been raking in quarter after quarter. Cases of corporate welfare abound in our economy--from welfare queen Walmart's hefty municipal and county tax subsidies to gas companies underreporting royalties to the Feds, to agribusinesses' water subsidies, to mining companies' free access to public land. Yet, Samuelson is not even acknowledging these special government-big business relationships. He finds it more convenient to take on corporations that, at some point in the past, "promised high wages, lifetime employment, generous pensions and comprehensive health insurance??? to their rank and file.

    Samuelson seems to relish the idea that nowadays "workers get skimpier benefits." However, he is silent over the pervasive greed that grips corporate America and translates into the lavish perks and bonuses CEO's of major corporations dole on themselves. Reportedly, total compensation of the 100 highest paid CEO's in 2008 ranged from $18 million to $134 million. According to the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) citing a study published in the Harvard Business Review, the aggregate compensation paid by public companies to their top-five executives (from 1993 to 2003) added up to about $350 billion; and the ratio of this aggregate top-five compensation to the aggregate earnings of these firms during the same period doubled, from 5% to about 10%. I am curious to know what Samuelson thinks of these facts.

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