Zhuo Ensen / Landov
Making Their Own Path: In Beijing

China’s Independence Fantasy

Many in the Middle Kingdom would like to break out of what they have come to see as a failed marriage with America.

 

Email To A Friend

Please fill in the following information and we'll email this link.

Separate multiple addresses with commas

SPONSORED BY
 

China is not happy. That's the title of the bestselling book in China. The five nationalist authors say it is time for China to "split from the West," particularly the United States and the Treasury bonds that Beijing holds to the tune of $1 trillion. This desire for greater distance from America is growing: in a May poll conducted by China's Global Times, 87 percent said they were against buying more U.S. debt. Shortly before U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner arrived in Beijing in early June, a survey of leading Chinese economists showed that 17 of 23 think U.S. bonds are "risky," that U.S. stocks pose a potential threat to the Chinese economy, and that the Chinese government should diversify its assets away from U.S. markets and toward energy and mineral resources. When Geithner assured a group at Beijing University that American bonds are a "safe" investment, they erupted in loud laughter—a rare outbreak of rudeness from an elite crowd in China.

This growing spirit of independence is troubling global markets. Many influential Chinese now doubt the wisdom of seeking closer ties to the United States, a bedrock policy that goes back to 1989, with the first openings to American business. A fragile global recovery depends on China's continued willingness to fund Western and especially U.S. debts, mounting even higher now as governments pour money into stimulus packages. Anxiety that China might pull back led to a sharp spike in interest rates in recent weeks, and turned the discussion at the recent G8 summit of finance ministers away from recovery efforts and toward ways to pay down the debt amassed so far. Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, who traveled to China as a part of the U.S. delegation, said in an interview that he believed "China is beginning to cancel Congress's credit card, and doesn't want to lend much more money to the United States."

Fortunately, China's stability-obsessed rulers do not share popular illusions of independence from the American economy. President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao have made it clear they understand that sudden divorce from the United States, their best export customer and leading investor, would be self-defeating.

While Wen recently urged America to get its financial house in order, he spoke as a banker tied to his biggest creditor, not as a jilted lover headed for the door. At the end of Geithner's visit, Hu saluted the Treasury secretary for "establishing good working relations with your Chinese colleagues" and for being "committed to enhancing China-U.S. economic cooperation."

But the popular fantasy of Chinese economic independence has real-world consequences. Right until the crisis hit, China looked to U.S. businesses for guidance. Wall Street giants were going to help Chinese state banks learn the mysteries of modern banking, like how to "price risk." Now it looks as if state-run Chinese banks were the safer houses, and no one in China talks about the American model. Beijing has shelved plans to open further to foreign stock and bond traders. Populism is pushing leaders to turn inward, for example by issuing rules attached to the country's new stimulus spending requiring contractors to "buy Chinese." Globalization, a process America has promoted and profited from for 30 years, is under attack in China.

China's top leadership seems to understand. After America, no nation has profited more from globalization than China. Even with its exports to America down more than 25 percent, China will still run a trade surplus with the United States approaching $200 billion. That cash flow has allowed China to run the world's most generous stimulus program (at 4 percent of GDP) and to weather the global storm relatively well. No wonder Beijing has so far made only half-steps to diversify away from the dollar, as that would make it more difficult for Americans to buy its exports. Chinese banks are now buying shorter-term U.S. debt rather than 10-year and 30-year bonds, suggesting they want neither a crisis in the near term nor greater commitment to U.S. investments in the long term.

Label

Newsweek Top Stories
Al Gore's Climate-Change Evolution
Al Gore's Climate-Change Evolution

Using emotion to convince people to change.

Heaven Can Wait
Heaven Can Wait

A new book promises proof of eternal life.

The World's Biggest Foods
The World's Biggest Foods

Monster edibles from around America.

Discuss

Sponsored by

Member Comments

  • Posted By: jordan c. fan @ 08/06/2009 5:11:23 AM

    Why The Chinese And American Marriage Failed? PART 2 (Contuned)

    By; Jordan C. Fan, Prophet of Environment.

    Since the Cold War had ended in 2008 with China???s victory, the entire world should follow the path of a careful and gradual transformation into Communism. In fact the U. S. is currently embracing their own version socialism. There should not be any more blood sheds, destruction of property and waste to initiate anymore political changes.

    In a given planet, there can only be one nation who can truly be democratic and independent at the same time. All other nations can either be undemocratically independent or seemingly democratic but were controlled by another stronger nation which in most cases is the United States. The leaders of those small nations are nothing but puppets with no choices but to follow American orders. This is the reason why the U. S. is so anxious in converting other nations into ???democracy???

    For Communismt to work perfectly, citizen must be relatively well educated, unselfish and well trained. My own interpretation of ???revisionism??? as being a political system which can be easily refined and improved. More importantly, we need an extremely long foresight to be able to look into the very distant future and not restrict short term gains. China had survived the latter therefore should be posed to become successful. People of a communist country must also be able to take sacrifice and not operate totally on profit. The failure of PRC???s communism at its early stage were simply due to American embargo and boycott in many different areas such as commerce and technology transfer.

    Chinese still refuse to accept the fact that their leaders are also one of them. In reality their leader???s belongings can also be shared and whatever that leader does is not only for his own good but are for other citizens also. This is the exact opposite to U. S. chief executives who functions exclusively for their own personal gain. They work only for the sake of being reelected and remembered in history. The minute their terms are over, they will be long gone and left behind mountains of unresolvable problems. In fact, it is their duty to be gone and to be relieved after their terms are over.

    To put it very simply, Chinese must begin to treat their leaders as their parents. They are very harsh, domineering and prone to make mistakes but somewhat responsive, naturally caring and they are permanent. Again, you should always remember that any social improvements toward perfection today will be limited by depleting resource and damaging Environment. Communication within the world???s biggest Chinese bureaucracy is difficult. If a better system can be established for leaders to give more attentions to their subordinates. With renew respect and trust from its citizens, China could be the ideal government in world history

  • Posted By: jordan c. fan @ 08/06/2009 5:08:44 AM

    Why The Chinese And American Marriage Failed? part 1.

    By; Jordan C. Fan, Prophet of Environment.

    With the opening of the year 2008 Olympic in Beijing, the ???Cold War??? had ended. China and its Communism political ideology has successfully emerge as the winner of this highly destructive war. Tens of millions of lives have been lost and trillions of dollars of property damages all due to American aggression. Such atrocities must be compensated by the U. S. because it had started the ???Cold War??? as a mean o continue its imperialism and war time industries. Historically, East Asia has always been the habitats for Asian survival and development. Americans involvements in these area during the Cold War are obviously selfish aggression. Taking away of Asian lives by Americans could only mean genocide. To fully understand the history of the 20th century or beyond, we must understand the political system in China.

    ???Freedom of speech??? may sometime be necessary to prevent and avoid unnecessary political transformations which will cause more harms than good to our world. With depleting natural resources and damaging Environment, the entire population of this planet are currently surviving on borrowed time. We don???t need any more wasteful changes. For China to be successful, we need new ideas for improving our world through governments and their policies. Emphasis should also be put on how to guide other nations toward gradual adoption of Communism into their own political systems. In short, "Communism" and My version of ???Revisionism??? must be made very sacred.

    There were little or no ???politic??? before the American Revolution for their independence from England in 1776. Monarchies as ???political??? leaders or alternatives were without political ideologies but the personalities of those monarchs which would dictate their government policies. We should all agree that politics or ideological difference of governments are really myths or deceptions. Its sole purpose is to overthrow or replace an existing government or political party. After such political transformations were completed, politic in those nations should become obsolete. As its replacements, there should only be constant but gradual improvements of the existing ???political??? framework to fit the need of their citizens. Frequent elections at all levels will be extremely wasteful, time consuming and inefficient.

    The United States used its own politic ideology as a deception during the Cold War to diverge attentions from its internal unrest since its Civil War. The process of mandatory and scheduled political changes even through elections are unnecessary because they always create instabilities.
    (CONTINUE TO PART 2).

  • Posted By: jordan c. fan @ 08/06/2009 4:31:29 AM

    By: Jordan C. Fan, Prophet of Environment.

    If you are refering to China as the "Middle Kingdom" , your title was wrong. China ?????? is the "Central Kingdom" not the "Middle Kingdom". You know there is a big difference. Many foreigners were trying to downgrade China to a "Middle Kingdom" but that doesn't work.

Reply

Report Abuse

Enter comments if any for reporting abuse

My Take

Customize the NEWSWEEK homepage
to feature your favorite columnists.

Customize Now