Turkey is NOT a "a big, functioning, democratic Muslim state that could be an example to the rest of the Middle East". Turkey is a hysterical country that appears to be secular when viewed from abroad, but where the government forces the mainstream Sunni Islam down the throats of a large Alevite Shia minority and where its multiple religious and ethnic minorities suffer harrassment and restrictions. Turkey may look democratic, but many parties are still illegal and the decisions of the democratically elected government are subject to approval by the all powerful military. You write that "Turkey has the biggest and arguably one of the toughest armies in Europe". Big it definitely is. But Turkey's army has never proven its might in a real war; it has rather proven its might by illegally occupying the defenseless mini-state of Cyprus as well as against its own citizens, namely the Kurds, who were ethnically cleansed from their homelands to major Turkish cities in an effort to force them into the Turkish mainstream. Diyarbakir, a city in the SE, used to have a population of 400,000 in 1990, which swelled up to 1.5 millions in 1997, after the Turkish Military that you so praise conducted the ethnic cleansing of Turkey's own Kurds! That's 275% more people in just 7 years!
By praising Turkey one does not serve the truth and frustrates millions of belabored underdogs within Turkey. It is also a great offense to other successful Muslim democracies who unlike Turkey are genuine democracies, tolerant of various ethnic and religious groups and who do not aggress their neighbors, such as Indonesia.
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Turkey on the Edge
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Do the Turkish people understand these issues? Probably not, because they are diverted by the thin green shoots in their economy. In recent weeks, Istanbul buzzed at its usual frenetic pace and the Bosporus was jammed with tankers, freighters, and cruise ships. The hotels on the coast were packed with Germans, Russians, and Israelis working on getting tans and skin cancer. Signs that the local economy is rebounding include increasingly busy factories, with capacity-utilization rates at 70 percent in May, up from the trough of 64 percent in February. Domestic demand is clearly improving, but a sustainable recovery depends on Turkey's big export markets in the euro zone, Russia, and the Middle East.
If Turkey can maneuver through this crisis, the future could brighten quickly. Businessmen I spoke to in Istanbul in June said that over the next five years, even in a slower-growth world, Turkey's real GDP could grow 5 percent a year. Nominal GDP expansion of 10 percent is not unrealistic. Entry into the EU would raise these projections. From 2002 to 2007 real GDP growth averaged 6.8 percent, and it could happen again.
Turkish stocks now sell at an average price of just nine times earnings. Yet Turkey is not high on anyone's buy list of hot emerging markets: too many problems, too many false starts. Meanwhile, huge money continues to flow into emerging markets, which took in $1.19 billion in late June, and for the year to date have taken in $30.7 billion, compared with the previous full-year record of $40.8 billion. With a little luck, Turkey could get a play.
Biggs Is Managing Partner Of Traxis Partners Hedge Fund In New York.
© 2009
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