Ready. Aim. Never Mind.

North Korea may have prematurely marked July 4 today by launching a barrage of four short-range missiles, but U.S. government experts say that a widely anticipated effort by Pyongyang to test-fire a long-range missile which could conceivably reach U.S. territory is not likely to proceed before this weekend's American holiday.
 
For weeks the Obama administration and other Western governments have been anticipating a new launch by North Korea of a large rocket known as Taepodong 2 or Unha 2, which has characteristics of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Official and unofficial U.S. experts say that if the three-stage rocket worked perfectly, or at least close to perfection, it could reach Alaska, Hawaii, and parts of the continental U.S. 

 

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The North Koreans launched what was believed to be a Taepodong 2 in April, but the third stage of the rocket is alleged to have failed after flying over Japan. Recently, possibly as a result of a power struggle related to the health of Kim Jong Il, North Korea has escalated threatening rhetoric against the U.S. and other countries. In anticipation of a possible new Taepodong 2 launch timed for the U.S. Independence Day celebration, Pentagon officials indicated that the readiness of U.S. antimissile defense is being increased, particularly around Hawaii.
 
However, despite the North Koreans' reported launch today of four short-range missiles, two U.S. national security officials tell NEWSWEEK that an Independence Day launch of another Taepodong 2 is essentially impossible because the North Koreans have not yet assembled such a rocket on a launch pad. 
 
U.S. government experts are monitoring what may be preparations by the North Koreans to assemble another Taepodong 2 for launch. However, the rocket is still in pieces, according to the two officials (who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information) and would take days or even weeks to put together. Even after such a missile is assembled on a launchpad, the officials added, the North Koreans would then need several more days to load it with liquid fuel. The entire process of assembling and fueling such a rocket would be easily visible not only to secret spy satellites and aircraft operated by the U.S. and other Western governments but also to picture-taking satellites operated by commercial companies, one of the officials noted.
 
The available evidence indicates that if the North Koreans are preparing to launch another Taepodong 2, there is no way it could be launched in time for July 4; best estimates are that even if preparations are pursued at an accelerated rate, the earliest another large missile launch could take place would be several weeks from now. Hence, U.S. experts say, whatever Independence Day fireworks may light up the sky over Hawaii, Alaska, or the West Coast of the U.S., they likely won't come from a North Korea missile test.
 
Even if and when the North Koreans do conduct another test of what most U.S. experts believe is a prototype ICBM, many U.S. officials believe that the rocket still probably won't work well enough yet to reach American soil; in any case, most U.S. experts doubt the North Koreans, however heated their rhetoric, would deliberately try to aim any rocket launch at Hawaii or other U.S. territory. Some officials say Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other Obama aides who have talked about bolstering missile defenses in anticipation of another North Korean launch are mainly playing to a domestic audience of Republicans and conservative Democrats who have expressed concerns about plans by the administration to cut elements of the Pentagon's missile defense program. 
 
During last year's presidential campaign, Obama's official Web site expressed an element of skepticism about how fast the U.S. government should proceed with missile defense, noting that while "An Obama-Biden administration will support missile defense," it would also seek to "ensure that it is developed in a way that is pragmatic and cost-effective; and, most importantly, does not divert resources from other national security priorities until we are positive the technology will protect the American public."
           
As NEWSWEEK reported earlier this year, language similar to the campaign statement was posted after Obama's inauguration on the White House Web site. However, a search today of the term "national missile defense" on whitehouse.gov brought up a more supportive policy statement from the administration regarding missile defense programs: "To better protect our forces and those of our allies, we intend to field more of our most capable theater missile defense systems, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System and Standard Missile 3 programs, and convert additional Aegis ships to increase ballistic missile defense capabilities." It is unclear whether this apparently new administration policy statement is related to recent events in North Korea or elsewhere overseas.
 
However remote the July 4 threat to the U.S. from a North Korean missile launch, the Pentagon remains prepared. "We continue to closely monitor North Korea's missile activity," said Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell. "Although their previous long-range launches have failed, Secretary Gates is not taking any chances. He recently enhanced the nation's layered missile defenses by deploying additional capabilities in Hawaii. That will protect our fellow citizens should North Korea once again defy the international community and attempt another long-range missile launch."

© 2009