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Elections Aren’t the Answer

 
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The pictures are certainly gripping: a purple index finger in Iraq, a line of burqa-clad women in Afghanistan. International officials who oversee rebuilding countries often try to nudge them toward democracy as soon as possible. But political scientists now think that's getting it backward. Paul Collier, a professor at Oxford and author of The Bottom Billion, has run exhaustive studies of post-conflict societies, to learn what factors lead to peace. His conclusion? Elections don't help. Although the risk of violence decreases during an election year, in the following year it more than doubles, from 5.2 to 10.6 percent. Overall, an election slightly raises the odds that a country will relapse into civil war. "What an election produces is a winner and a loser," says Collier. "And the loser is unreconciled." Ballots only temporarily replace rockets and AK-47s.

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  • Posted By: earthorbitsthesun @ 08/20/2009 3:18:12 PM

    Elections are only part of the whole, giving a person a sense of being heard and an alternative to violence. Unbiased Education is another part to compensate for centuries of examples of where violence has proven the solution; giving them a possibly future where violence would destroy and make their future unattainable.

  • Posted By: Aden Zydo @ 08/17/2009 2:51:15 PM

    So, the alternative is what? I think this piece is shortsighted. I don't doubt that the first election after revolution may result in a higher likelihood of violence than, say, an instelled dictator. But, persistence is the key. The next election after that brings more stability. The vetting process continues after that, and with a little luck, persistance and effective security, elections (in the plural) are a key building block to long term liberty and stability. Stability without liberty is meaningless. Liberty requires the institution of free elections.

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