Slower Than a Melting Ice Cap

The night that the American Clean Energy and Security Act passed the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Rep. Ed Markey, one of the bill's authors, got a phone call from Rahm Emanuel. The significance of the legislative feat achieved by Markey and committee chair Henry Waxman—persuading a relatively conservative committee filled with coal-state representatives to approve a comprehensive climate-change bill—is a fact oft forgotten in the rowdy world of climate politics. But it wasn't lost on a seasoned political operative like Emanuel. "Congratulations," the sharp-tongued White House chieftain told Markey. "I really wasn't sure you had the votes."

Climate-change legislation now faces a similarly uphill battle in the Senate. Though it was originally slated to be considered in late 2009, prospects for it reaching the floor before 2010 are dim. In early September, Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.)pushed back the release of their comprehensive climate bill, which will serve as a companion bill to Waxman-Markey. When questioned last week about the outlook for climate-change legislation, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told reporters that his calendar was "very, very busy" for the rest of the year, adding that, "of course, nothing terminates at the end of this year. We still have next year to complete things." Aides scrambled to walk back those comments, saying that no, he does want to move quickly. Reid's press secretary, Jim Manley, says his boss still intends to pursue all three of the president's legislative priorities this year: health-care reform, regulatory reform, and global-warming legislation. He believes there will be a bill on the Senate floor by year's end. Still, Reid's comments continue to fuel speculation that climate-change legislation won't see the light of day until 2010.

 

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Privately, Democratic Senate staffers admit they're taking their cues from the White House, which is signaling to senators that once health care is done, reform of the financial sector is President Obama's next priority.

Senate Democrats from coal and heavy-industry states witnessed the political backlash visited on their House counterparts after they voted for the Waxman-Markey bill. They're waiting for a push from the president before facing the same. "Do you think that the House would have gone ahead like that without a green light from the White House?" asks one Senate Democratic staffer.

Appropriations bills throw another monkey wrench in the works—the Senate has fallen significantly behind in passing them, and the fiscal-year deadline is fast approaching.

Still, Boxer and Kerry—with the approval of key White House officials—are forging ahead. They're planning to drop their bill in the very near future. Insiders say the two have developed a strong alliance. They'll need it. Climate-change legislation is exceedingly tricky, and the politics are unusual: support tends to fall along regional rather than political lines, and there are senators who want to get involved to claim some of the credit—and others who want to water it down or protect their home-state interests. As chairs of the environment and Foreign Relations committees, respectively, Boxer and Kerry represent just two of the six committees that have jurisdiction over the legislation. (Foreign Relations has jurisdiction over sections that relate to international affairs, such as technology licensing and oceans.) Energy, commerce, finance, and agriculture could each weigh in.

That worries environmentalists who see finance chair Max Baucus struggling to pass health-care legislation, and anticipate energy chair Jeff Bingaman being an influential—and likely industry-friendly—voice. Once Boxer's bill passes out of her committee, it will be paired with energy legislation already marked up in Bingaman's committee. Then it will be up to Reid to stage-manage competing committee interests and present a completed leadership bill to the Senate. "It's ultimately going to be up to the Senate leadership to make it or break it, and that really means Harry Reid," says Frank O'Donnell, president of Clean Air Watch.