The Question Remains

As Rep. Joe Wilson illustrated with his "You lie!" outburst during President Barack Obama's speech to Congress, the illegal-immigration issue remains as hot as ever. Lou Dobbs still fulminates about it most evenings on CNN. Conservative talk-radio hosts descended on Washington, D.C., last month for a “Hold Their Feet to the Fire” gathering, aimed at lobbying against "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. On the other side, the United We DREAM Coalition organized 125 events around the country a few weeks ago in support of a law that would legalize certain undocumented high-school graduates.

Today's news may be dominated by the health-care debate, but a new battle over immigration reform looms ahead. As Obama repeated yet again last month, in an interview with Univision anchor Jorge Ramos, "I am not backing off one minute from getting this done." He has appointed Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano to spearhead the administration's effort. Sen. Charles Schumer and Rep. Luis Gutierrez are separately crafting bills that would address the key components of immigration reform: border enforcement, employer crackdowns, temporary work visas, and a path to citizenship for the undocumented. (The latter bill is expected to be introduced in the House later this month.)

Given the conservative rage that flared up at town-hall meetings in August, this might not seem like the most hospitable climate in which to tackle such a toxic issue. Yet pro-immigrant groups insist that this may well be their moment. After their unsuccessful attempt to get legislation passed in 2007, they regrouped, studied what went wrong, and hatched a new approach. "The advocacy groups fighting for comprehensive reform will be better organized and more effective" this time around, says Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, a left-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C.

Two years ago, those advocates thought it was their time then. President George W. Bush supported an immigration overhaul that included a path to citizenship for the undocumented, and Democrats had just gained control of Congress. But the effort collapsed in the face of a furious grassroots rebellion over supposed amnesty provisions and opposition from most Republicans and some centrist Democrats. In the eyes of the antilegalization folks, the revolt was widespread. Americans "are just generally opposed to rewarding people who broke the law," says Ira Mehlman, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), a group that advocates reduced immigration.

The bill's backers, on the other hand, believe they failed because of a small but effective adversary, and because of their own missteps. "We thought we were in a policy debate, and it turned out we were in … a political struggle colored by a culture war," says Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice, a pro-immigration organization. He concedes that his side underestimated the ferocity of the opposition to reform, even though they knew that immigration has always stirred deep divisions. "Politicians were afraid of the anti-immigrant forces and not afraid of the base in favor of immigration reform," says Sharry. In addition, that base suffered from internal rifts, including one between business groups that backed temporary worker visas and labor unions that opposed them. Leaders also wasted too much energy shoring up their own supporters instead of winning new ones, says the Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, which includes 25,000 Latino evangelical churches. "I spent more time reaffirming people we already had on our side, rather than meeting with [moderate] Blue Dog Democrats or Republicans."

Yet conditions seem just as hostile today, if not more so. "The angry right is more angry now than they were two years ago," says Rosenberg. They're livid over the battered economy, over Democratic dominance in Washington, over the health-care fight. "We all know that if and when this heats up, the other side will go absolutely ballistic," says Sharry. "It will make the town-hall meetings look amateurish." The spectacle of right-wing upheaval worries Rodriguez. "If [Fox News's] Glenn Beck wants to incorporate an anti-immigrant plank within the tea party movement, we are in bad shape," he says.