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Can the War in Afghanistan Still Be Won?

Opposing arguments in a debate as old as the conflict itself.

An Afghan National Army commander in Kunar Province area of Afghanistan
Jared Moossy / Redux
A commander on a hillside in the Kunar Province of Afghanistan
 

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Only those who were in the room know what was said in the series of White House meetings about America's policies in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But it's likely that at least some of the views expressed paralleled those heard at last week's Intelligence Squared US debate at New York University, because the six speakers among them counted decades of experience in defense, intelligence, diplomatic, and think-tank circles. The topic, "America Cannot and Will Not Succeed in Afghanistan/Pakistan," put the question about as bluntly as possible.

Those arguing for the motion were Steven Clemons, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation; retired Col. Patrick Lang, a former military-intelligence officer; and Ralph Peters, a retired Army officer, author, and Fox News strategic analyst.

Arguing against the motion were Steve Coll, CEO of the New America Foundation; retired U.S. ArmyLt. Col. John Nagl, president of the Center for a New American Security; and James Shinn, assistant secretary of defense for Asia in 2007–08. The moderator was John Donvan of ABC News. Excerpts:

Lang: General [Stanley] McChrystal [the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan] evidently wants 40,000 more people. I would say that's how we started in Vietnam too.The reason I don't think we can win with a counterinsurgency strategy is because three or four years down the pike all you good people are going to say, "Are the Taliban really our enemies, in the sense that Al Qaeda was? Is this really what we want to do?" And when that happens I suspect you're going to tell Congress you've had enough of this, and they will vote to end the war as they did in Vietnam.

Coll: We too often talk about Afghanistan as a primitive land that has been at war for centuries. Afghanistan [before the Soviet invasion in 1979] was a coherent and mainly peaceful independent state. After 2001 Afghans returned to their country from refugee camps and exile to reclaim their state. A strong plurality of Afghans still want to finish that work, and they want the international community to stay and help. Most Afghans are sick of war, and afraid of the Taliban's return. We have an obligation and a national interest and we have the capacity to stand by them.

We've heard much anxiety about the allegations of fraud in the recent presidential election, and for good reason. But consider what has not happened. No opposition protesters have taken to the streets; not a single rock has been thrown. The opposition leader has spoken freely, but within the constitutional system. In Kenya a couple of years ago the incumbent president stole his reelection and the entire country burned down. The great majority of Afghans want security and normalcy.

The ultimate exit strategy for the United States from South Asia is Pakistan's success. This is not assured, but the prospects are improving. The best way for the United States to support this momentum is to stay in Afghanistan, stabilize that country, marginalize the Taliban through population security and negotiations, and broaden and deepen its engagement in Pakistan.

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  • Posted By: BOFORCE @ 10/31/2009 7:35:57 AM

    Anti-Pakistan TTP(Pakistani Talibans) Terrorist eqquiped with US,INDIAN,and GERMAN WEAPONS. Reports reaching here confirm that hundreds of militants from Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the so and other associated groups are equipped with most sophisticated American, Indian and German weapons.According to a survey the weapons in the possession of these militants included U.S. made M249 automatic machine guns, U.S.-made Glock pistols, Indian hand guns, FN Browning GP35 9mmx19mm, Indian automatic machine pistols GLOCK 17 9mmx19mm, Indian machine guns Heckler & Koch MP5A3 9mmx19mm, Indian made Sterling L2A1 sub machine guns, Israeli licenced Indian made UZI 9mmx19mm sub machine guns and German Walther-P1 pistols. During Swat operation, a number of the Indian army used Vickers-Berthier (VB) light machine guns were also recovered. The recovery of Indian designed weapons were not astonishing for Pakistan But what was more surprising for Pakistani officials is that the U.S. and German weapons were recently introduced in the Waziristan area.German sources confirmed that thousand of German guns are being sold illegally on Afghan, Pakistan black markets. The German guns were sent to Afghanistan for police and army via a U.S. agency.The weapons were sent in 2006 and were intended for local police and army personnel. According to the latest reports in 2006, the German Defense Ministry shipped 10,000 old Walther-P1 pistols to the Afghan Interior Ministry to equip Afghan police and army. However, both the German government and the responsible US-led security team in Afghanistan failed to properly monitor the guns' distribution and use. The U.S. unit was quoted by a German source as saying that "it only had detailed records of German Walther-P1 pistols, numbering 4,563 pistols out of a total 10,000." It is believed that German officials failed to pursue the investigation in Afghanistan due to non-cooperation from the Afghan Government. In February this year, CNN has reported that more than one-third of all weapons the United States has procured for Afghanistan's government are "missing".On February 12, 2009, CNN had quoted a U.S. Government Accountability Office report as saying that the U.S. military failed to "maintain complete inventory records for an estimated 87,000 weapons -- or about 36 percent -- of the 242,000 weapons that the United States procured and shipped to Afghanistan from December 2004 through June 2008. The report elaborated that the U.S. military is unable to provide serial numbers for 46,000 of the missing 87,000 weapons and that no records have been maintained for the location or disposition for the other 41,000 weapons.

  • Posted By: BOFORCE @ 10/31/2009 7:24:17 AM

    America is playing double game with Pakistan..as Pakistani forces are gaining ground in South Waziristan the American are abandoning the check posts across the border in Afghanistan giving latitude to pakistani talibans.....American are financing and equipping so called pakistani talibans which consists of druglords.smuggles and criminals..All the insurgency and chaos in pakistan is sponsored by Americans in Afghanistan.....this leave only one choice for Pakistan to finanace and equip Afghan taliban
    to teach a lesson to the American...this is the best opportunity to de-fang America with the help of regional players like Iran and China.....it is the America's clever policy to get out form Afghanistan and drag pakistan into fight proxy war for them with talibans....but my advice to pakistanis will be to not let American leave Afghanistan by helping Afghan talibans to fight a long term guerrilla war which will bleed the American reosurses....America is also sponsoring Jundallah group to do insurgency in Iran and Xingiang province in China therefore this is the right time for Pakistan,Iran and China to join hands and kick the America's A*S*S in

  • Posted By: drnojoe @ 10/25/2009 2:41:05 AM

    To defeat taliban and al qaida, start with their leadership. To find them, cut off all aid to pakistan. These two faced pakistani beggars are playing double game with the world. All news says senior taliban leadership is in Pakistani city of Quetta in pakistani Baluchistan. CUTT OFF ALL AID TO PAKISTANI BEGGARS. WITHOUT FOOD THEY WILL SOON FOLD AND WILL START COOPERATING WITH THE WORLD AND PROVIDE REAL DETAILS ABOUT EXACT LOCATION OF THESE TALIBANI AND AL QAIDA LEADERSHIP.
    Otherwise send ground forces into Pakistan, sanctioned by UN and troops provided with all support drawn from UN member countries.

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