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Foreclosures Spread to Middle Class

Forget the subprime-mortgage borrowers. This latest wave in the foreclosure crisis is hitting homeowners hurt by unemployment.

 
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As the foreclosure crisis escalates, more homeowners and renters are finding themselves facing eviction. A look at how the country's real estate crisis is turning into a national tragedy.

 
 

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The foreclosure crisis may be coming to a middle-class neighborhood near you. As joblessness continues to rise and as a person'sunemployment lasts on average 6.5 months, roughly 3.4 million homes are expected to go into foreclosure by the end of 2009. That's up from 1.2 million homes in 2007, according to RealtyTrac, a subscription-based site that tracks foreclosures nationwide. "We're not out of the woods yet," says Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president.

Sharga recently spoke to NEWSWEEK's Nancy Cook about the various waves of the foreclosure crisis, the future of homeownership and why the Obama administration’s loan-modification program won't stem this latest crop of foreclosures. Excerpts:

What's this new "wave" in the foreclosure crisis?
The first wave was caused by bad loan products, while the second will be driven by unemployment. Right now, we're at the beginning of wave two. There are virtually no more foreclosures that are the result of subprime lending. The demographics of the foreclosure crisis are changing and affecting people who were blue collar and entry to midlevel white collar. We're now seeing foreclosures on properties with higher loan values. Probably the single best predictor of the areas hardest hit in next wave will be where you will see rising unemployment rates. The third wave is going to involve borrowers who had adjustable rate loans, in which they had the option of deciding what payment to make including interest-only payments. These loans are going to default at ridiculous rates, and that wave will go from the middle of next year until 2011.

If more middle-class people are expected to lose their homes, is the geography of the foreclosure crisis also expected to change?
We're already seeing some shifts. Four or five states—California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona—will always be among the top in the foreclosure parade. They overbuilt and overpriced those homes and sold them with horrific loans. What's happening now is that you're seeing places like Michigan and Ohio that were devastated by unemployment have an increase. Those foreclosures are much harder to salvage because those people have no income.

But even as the numbers of foreclosures rise, the housing market seems to be stabilizing.
We will see a L-shaped recovery in the housing market if this scenario plays out until 2013 and if the financial institutions meticulously manage the disposition of these properties. We won't see a huge dip in home prices, but you also won't have a huge run-up in the building part of the industry that contributed a fair number of jobs to the economy. The housing market will not feel healthy for a few years. This is not a short-lived recession.

What will this mean for the future of homeownership?
We had sort of gotten to an illogical point with the high levels of homeownership. In practice, it turns out that not everyone can afford a house. I think there is more of a realization among potential homeowners that they won't do it until they can afford it.

If more people will rent, what will this mean for the rental market?
People assume that apartment rentals rates will go up, but in many markets in the country, the rental rates are the lowest they've been in years. In Las Vegas, Arizona, Florida, and California, people now rent a whole house instead of an apartment, so these cycles have an affect of lowering apartment rental prices and increasing vacancy rates.

Do you think the Obama administration has done enough to prevent foreclosures?
By sheer volume, the Obama administration's plan is really having a minimal effect. The administration's loan-modification program won't have any success with the types of foreclosure you see now. If you're unemployed, you don't qualify for a loan modification.

© 2009

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  • Posted By: Larry751 @ 11/07/2009 6:32:42 AM

    No Kidding ? Just because the many Rockefeller Wall Street Investment Banks have Exported countless Millions of Jobs in the last 30 years, .... Forclosures are Up. Imagine that.!!!

    Like what did fhe Sheeple Public think would happen after Countless Millions of Job were outsouced to Communist China, India, Mexico and Brazil ?

    And just because the Wall Street bought off most of the Politicians with Army's of Lobbiest's for the last 25 years, does that mean it is a Coincidence that the Southern Border with Mexico is still Broken ??? No Way ! It was always planned out this way since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissenger.

    It is time for the American Middle Class to get their Head out of their A$$ and Realize that Wall Street has nearly Destroyed The United States of America , her Infrustructure and Her People.

    When it all comes Crashing Down, and it most certainly will, many Wall Streeters should be put up against the Wall on Wall Street for their TREASON against the Greatest Nation in the History of the World. The Late Great United States of America.

  • Posted By: Chiefpontiac @ 11/06/2009 5:53:30 AM

    November 5, 2009

    The Jobs Easter Egg Hunt

    "Having brought the economy back from the brink, the question is how are we going to make sure that people are getting back to work and able to support their families. It's not going to happen overnight, but we will not rest until we are succeeding in generating the jobs that this economy needs." President Barack Obama - 11/2/2009

    Why is this so hard? Why can???t we find countable jobs created in the economy? The Tarp money allocated, was $750 Billion and we have spent only a little over $400 Billion. Did the US create 35,000 or 650,000 jobs or did we count pay raises also? Did we actually count anything? We do not know. No one in the Government seems to be able to count. Why not? Let???s look for countable American Jobs.

    President Obama says he will not rest until this issue is solved and yet there are no definitive plans or 2,000 page bills on jobs that seem to be forthcoming. We already know that the ???shovel Ready Jobs??? were not really ???shovel ready???. We also know that Treasury keeps pumping money into GM to extinguish jobs; 10,000 lay offs announced for Opal yesterday. It is very hard to create jobs when you pay people to end them!! Are we looking in the wrong places?

    I remember my children hunting for Easter eggs in the spring. There were always several eggs that seemed to me to be hidden in obvious places that were, for some reason, hard for them to find. The result, of course, was to give the children hints about where they might look, ???in case there were eggs hidden in certain places???. I did dislike the kids struggling too much looking for the eggs on a day when life should be happy. Similarly, I hate for President Obama to go without sleep looking for jobs.

    Our organization, Savingpontiac.org has relentlessly given hints to Treasury, Congress, and the UAW to help find jobs. Our proposal is simply that we use the General Motors assets that the taxpayers have purchased (Brands and manufacturing facilities) to save Pontiac and perhaps Saturn. We believe that these assets divested to the hands of entrepreneurial management could, literally overnight, create as many as 200,000 countable American jobs. (almost as many as were lost in October of this year)

    Imagine the happiness with our Administration if tomorrow 200,000 jobs were announced. Imagine the new found confidence in the country???s direction and the reawakening of belief in courage of commitment with President Obama. Every day that goes by without jobs plans or economic improvements further erodes the country???s enthusiasm for the leadership.

    Were my children afraid to look behind the birdbath because there might have been snakes in the garden? We can assure The President that there are no snakes with the Savingpontiac.org solution and the result is jobs for Americans NOW!!! A President needs his rest.

  • Posted By: bwdelaneyb @ 11/02/2009 12:48:04 AM

    The same people who would complain about huge deficits that our children will have to pay think nothing of trying to pass along their own bad home purchase decisions to the next generation by keeping housing prices artificially inflated by implementing foreclosure moratoriums and homebuyer tax credits. Home prices need to fall to levels that are sustainable based on the salaries of new families. The past 10 years have been a huge real estate bubble that is thankfully bursting so new families, which are (by the way) the future of this nation, can avoid predatory gimmicks conjured up by generations that came before them.

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