Back to the Future

A newly elected Democratic president sweeps into Washington with a mandate and approval ratings to die for. The opposing party is written off as a goner. But slowly, over the president's first year in office, the sheen wears away and voters cool on his agenda, setting up a political comeback for the party out of power.

No, this isn't Barack Obama's Washington, but rather 1993, a year that has increasingly become a guiding light for many Republicans as they plot their return to the majority after consecutive elections in which the party suffered major losses, first control of Congress and then the White House. Tuesday's election results—including Bob McDonnell's double-digit victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's gubernatorial race and Christopher Christie's win over incumbent democratic Gov. Jon Corzine—is being interpreted by many in the party as a sign the tide may finally be turning for Republicans, not unlike it did ahead of the party's historic 1994 landslide, in which they took control of Congress after more than 40 years in the minority. It's a historical comparison that has come up again and again as Republicans have become increasingly confident about their chances ahead of next year's 2010 midterm elections—especially in the House. "In terms of candidate recruitment, fund-raising and issue development, we are far ahead of where we were at this point in 1993—and you remember what happened in 1994," Rep. Pete Sessions, a Texas lawmaker who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, recently wrote in a fundraising message to supporters.

With a year to go before Election Day 2010, Democrats and Republicans admit the political landscape looks more favorable for the GOP than it did just six months ago, with both sides conceding the GOP will likely pick up seats. After all, history is on their side: over the past 50 years, the party out of power in the White House has picked up seats in 10 of the last 12 midterm elections. That rule especially applies to the first midterm of a president's first term in office, when the election is generally viewed as a referendum on the party in power. But are Republicans really on the verge of a '94-type political tsunami?

Veteran election watchers, including Charlie Cook, have predicted in recent months that House Democrats could lose at least 20 seats next year—a decent number, though not enough to give the Republicans the 40 seats they need to retake majority control. Still, for Republicans, it's all about focusing on the positive. "It's going to be tough, but we think we can get within striking distance," a NRCC official, who declined to be named when discussing internal party strategy, told NEWSWEEK.

Polls confirm that the Republican brand, at least, is slowly making gains. According the most recent Gallup survey, the two parties are neck and neck in a generic ballot ahead of next year's campaign: 46 percent of likely registered voters said they would choose a Democratic candidate, while 44 percent said they'd vote GOP—a five point gain for Republicans since January. The biggest news for the GOP: self-described independent voters, a swing voting bloc that was crucial to Obama's win in 2008, increasingly say they will vote Republican in 2010. According to Gallup, Republicans lead Democrats among independents 45 percent to 36 percent—numbers that were precisely the opposite a year ago. As many Republicans like to note, this poll isn't much different than one taken back in the fall of 1993, ahead of the GOP comeback.

Yet, here's where the 1994 analogy gets tricky: Republicans enter 2010 with a lot more political baggage than they did 16 years ago. Back in 1993, voters focused much of their anger at Democrats, holding Republicans in much higher esteem. That's not the case today. Recent polls show the disapproval rating for congressional Republicans on average exceeds 60 percent—the party's worst numbers in more than a decade. Democrats in Congress aren't in much better shape, but their numbers are slightly better—a recent Pew Research poll found their disapproval rating at 53 percent. "The Republican brand is at an all-time low," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat in charge of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said last week. But GOP pollster Glen Bolger counters that Republicans are in a better position to save face with voters than Democrats are. "It's a lot easier for the GOP to fix our fading problems than it is for the Dems to fix their growing problems," Bolger says.