I don't have a PhD. However I do have an MS, and even worked in fusion lasers a long long time ago. The amount of laser energy and power that was thought to be needed was so much smaller than is currently thought, but it was growing then as it continues to grow. The technology I was working on became unworkable as the efficiency and energy requirements escalated. NIF achieves the energy we thought was necessary, but makes no attempt at being efficient.
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This is not perpetual motion. It is converting energy from one form into another, from which we can make electricity.
Direct fusion to electricity is possible, but even more difficult that fusing Deuterium and Tritium.
$3.5B is $3.5B. It doesn't matter who else wasted how much money, especially when it is borrowed.
NIF *IS* a micro-h-bomb device. Useful for physics and weapons verification work.
There is an enormous gap between break-even, producing more energy than goes in with the laser pulse, and producing energy. The first step is the massively inefficient laser itself. Then there is tha conversion efficiency that has been mentioned. That means the blasts need to make hundreds or thousands of times the amount of energy as the laser puts in.
The laser will not get any smaller with presently conceivable technology because there is a limit on how concentrated the laser energy can get before it destroys even the most perfect surfaces we can fabricate.
NIF only fires a few times a day. Ramping it up to many times a second is another technological development, perhaps equally daunting to achieving break-even and energy multiplication.
The $100B guess-timate may not be that far off, because there is no telling how big the system would need to be to produce usable amounts of net power.
The cost of the fuel will be significant, as stated. It isn't produced by filtering tap water. Its very hard to make.
The heat given off by fusion reactors would not be significant. Compared to the solar energy hitting the Earth it is tiny. (That doesn't mean that solar panels are the answer either.)
You don't control the plasma after ignition. That's why its called "inertial" confinement..
Conservation is a great idea, but the energy needs of the world will go up as billions of people participate in development.
There are all sorts of wonderful ideas for energy production, and a large number of promising programs not being funded. My favorite is Thorium based fission in molten salt reactors, which were developed to some level at Oak Ridge in TN. However, most of these just won't get funded. Insert your reason here.
Magnetically confined fusion has great promise. An acquaintance said that after 40 some years working on fusion at Princeton, the lead American center for that technology, they had learned an enormous amount about magnetic fields and fusion and the like, but were no closer to succeeding than they were when he started. Sobering, but those were his words.
Could This Lump Power the Planet?
Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Lab are betting $3.5 billion in taxpayer money on a tiny pellet that could produce an endless supply of safe, clean energy. For some, that's hard to swallow.
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It doesn't look like much from the outside—just a drab, 10-story building on the campus of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, about an hour's drive east of San Francisco. But as I'm walking across the parking lot on a sunny day in October I can't help thinking that someday I might be telling my grandchildren about the time I came to this lab and met Edward Moses and saw the technology that was about to change the world.
Maybe this means I'm an optimist. Or even a sucker; a fool. All I know is that when I meet Moses, the 60-year-old scientist who runs this place, and he shows me a tiny pellet, about the size of the multivitamin I take every morning, and swears it will provide an endless supply of safe, clean energy, I want to believe him. It seems so ridiculously simple, so utterly doable. The pellet Moses holds is a model, but the real version will contain a few milligrams of deuterium and tritium, isotopes of hydrogen that can be extracted from water. If you blast the pellet with a powerful laser, you can create a reaction like the one that takes place at the center of the sun. Harness that reaction, and you've created a star on earth, and with the heat from that star you can generate electricity without creating any pollution. Forget about nuke plants, coal, oil, or wind and solar. "This is the real solar power," says Moses.
What Moses is talking about is controlled nuclear fusion—fusing nuclei rather than splitting a nucleus, as happens in ordinary nuclear-fission power plants. In a fission reaction, the nucleus of a uranium atom is split into two smaller atoms, releasing energy in the form of heat. The heat is used to make steam, which drives a turbine and generates electricity. In fusion energy, the second half of this process (heat makes steam makes electricity) remains the same. But instead of splitting the nucleus of an atom, you're trying to force a deuterium nucleus to merge, or fuse, with a tritium nucleus. When that happens, you produce helium and throw off energy.
Scientists have been trying to produce energy with fusion for decades. So far, they keep failing. It's not that fusion itself can't be achieved. Fusion takes place in every hydrogen-bomb explosion. The trick is controlling fusion so that instead of a one-time blast you get a series of tiny, controllable explosions. The joke is that fusion energy is only 40 years away, and will always be only 40 years away.
Moses believes, however, that his lab, which is called the National Ignition Facility, or NIF, has cracked the problem. The big challenge fusion has faced is lack of power. Even the biggest lasers in the world could not generate enough energy to smash nuclei together and make them stick. But the reason the building we're in is so huge—it covers the area of three football fields—is that it contains an enormous laser, or actually a system that combines 192 identical lasers and zaps them into a round chamber, about 30 feet in diameter, where the tiny pellet of fuel awaits the blast. NIF's laser, which took a decade to build and was completed earlier this year, can produce 60 times more energy than any other laser ever built. Right now it's still being tested. But next year Moses and his scientists will fire it up with a full load of deuterium-tritium fuel, and Moses feels confident it will achieve "ignition," meaning a controlled burn in which you get out more energy than you put in. Moses, an award-winning laser scientist with a wry sense of humor, explains the whole thing as he leads me on a tour through the NIF facility. It's a vast, beautiful, awe-inspiring machine, mind-blowing in its complexity, with miles of metal tubes—all part of a system that starts with a tiny pulse of light, channels that light through machines that amplify its intensity and rocket the beam along using specially grown crystals and thousands of lenses and mirrors, and finally focuses these beams down to hit a target that is the size of a peppercorn—all in one millionth of a second.
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