Divide and Conquer

Russia's most powerful strategic weapon is not nukes, however, but energy supplies. "It's hard to stand up to Russia if you know that they can shut down your economy within days," complains a top Eastern European diplomat in Kiev not authorized to speak on the record. Already, Russia controls nearly a third of Germany's natural-gas supplies, which has weakened Chancellor Angela Merkel's willingness to put real pressure on Putin regarding human rights. "The West sold Russian democracy down the river in exchange for oil and gas," complains former Russian deputy prime minister Irina Khakamada.

Gazprom, the Russian natural-gas giant, is cutting deals with Bulgaria, Hungary and Italy aimed at undermining European efforts to build a pipeline that would bring gas directly from Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia. Putin has also held talks with gas producers Iran, Qatar and Algeria to set prices and divide up markets.

Russia's neighbors—backed sporadically by the United States—have started fighting back. New pipelines allow Azerbaijan (and soon Kazakhstan) to export oil directly to the Mediterranean and gas to Turkey - if not yet direct to Europe. And GUAM, an alliance comprising Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, agreed last year to use pipeline from Odessa to the Polish border to transport Azeri and Kazakh oil to Eastern Europe. NATO, too, has increased joint exercises with former Soviet states and is trying hard to persuade neutral Sweden and Finland to join.

Will the upshot of all this strategic maneuvering be a new Iron Curtain drawn between Russia and its neighbors? Saakashvili, for one, hopes not. "We have so much in common with Russia," he says. "I believe that all the anti-American statements we hear from the Kremlin today are a temporary thing—in reality, the Russian elite want to be a part of Europe." But for as long as the Kremlin continues to dream of restoring its empire, Russia's neighbors will prefer to fly their flags alongside Old Glory, just to be on the safe side.

© 2007