'I Was Scared to Death'

Any hope you might be allowed back into China?
Not for a long time. I think we have very good leverage [over Beijing] in Taiwan. We are the biggest newspaper and magazine there, which gives us protection because Beijing cares more about Taiwan than they do Hong Kong, which is already in their pocket.

When you moved into Taiwan's media market, some people saw it as a vote of no confidence against Hong Kong.
You're suggesting it was an insurance policy? That was the intention. I couldn't go to the United States and say: "Can you protect me?" Nobody would care. But I knew Beijing was thinking very much about Taiwan, and that they don't want bad press there. So we built the Taiwan business as leverage. If they do anything to us, our Taiwanese readers will know what happened. And Beijing knows that [should they move against us] we will do everything we can to make them pay on Taiwan.

What about China's own media? Is it gaining more freedom as China rises?
The media is actually under greater control than before. [Chinese President] Hu Jintao has really squeezed them a lot since taking power. If they can find better ways to control the Internet, better ways to control the media, they will do so. Eventually, what is going to overcome Chinese control is technology. But they are not going to launch their own initiatives to open the media [until] Chinese politics begins to liberalize.

Some experts argue that China does not intend to Westernize or liberalize, but only to modernize. Do you think people in China understand what democracy is and want it?
Not at this moment. But anyone who would differentiate between Westernization and modernization is just talking rubbish. Take out the western culture and what else is modern? Nothing. The technology is Western, the trendy culture is Western, all this modernization is Westernization. China is prosperous today because it deals and interacts with the West. No, democracy isn't on normal people's radars yet. China will be open to it only when the economic cycle turns down. And when that happens, China will be in chaos.

How so?
In other countries, when there is a recession, you have churches, temples, charities, NGOs, civic organizations, unions and other institutions reaching out to help each other. They are shock absorbers. In China, you don't have any of this. Organizations that are not governmental are not allowed. In China, you have two pillars: the market and the government. If the market fails, the government will be dragged down because there is nothing in the middle.

That is just the opposite of what many economists here say.
There's no such thing as perpetual-motion machines, and no economy without cycles. We haven't seen the boom's flip side yet, and when we do it is going to be disastrous. As the cake becomes smaller in China, everyone will fight for it. There is no moral infrastructure. People don't care about anyone but themselves, about making money and having a better life. Then all of a sudden, this hope is dashed. People will fight in situations where, in places like Taiwan or the United States, they would extend their hands to help each other.