Carolina Combat

If change is in the air, and I think it is, South Carolina is a good a place to see it. Nearly 20 years ago, George H.W. Bush (or rather his adviser, the late Lee Atwater of South Carolina) made white evangelical Christians here the core constituency of his presidential bid. The result not only was victory, but the evangelized Republican Party of today. Now, however, the action is among a different set of voters: in the state's cotton belt, south of the capital, where African-Americans could well decide the Democrats' next nomination-race winner.

This state has a way of making more than its share of history. It will do so again in the '08 presidential campaign, which began in earnest this week as South Carolina State University in Orangeburg hosted the Democrat's first debate.

In Columbia I get the sense that the Democrats are over-the-moon excited about their prospects. State party chairs always sound enthusiastic, but it's easy to tell when they don't mean it. Carol Khare Fowler, who takes over the job this month, and who is a careful, soft-spoken sort, clearly does. "We've got a great field," she told me. That goes, she said, not just for Sen. Barack Obama, but for Sen. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and the trio of substantive "others"—Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd.

The GOP side of things feels confused, and perhaps a little bleak. As I write, Sen. John McCain is on his way here for a campaign stop—it's his official announcement tour—and there isn't an ounce of buzz on Gervais Street.

McCain's situation here is symbolic of the GOP's larger malaise. In 2000, the Machine That Atwater Built destroyed the maverick senator's surging candidacy, pulling out every nasty trick in the book to do it. As the putative front runner months ago, McCain tried to make that machine his own, but he didn't quite succeed. Major cogs are elsewhere, with other candidates, or sitting out the campaign altogether. McCain has been forced to rely on some of the same locals who advised him—badly, by his own account—in the previous go-round.

The changing-of-the-guard aura was evident on the flight down here the other day, and in the career arcs and current roles of two men on board: Tucker Eskew and Rick Wade.