Wars For Water?

Fortunately, as Aaron Wolf of Oregon State University, an expert on the politics of multinational river basins, points out, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam are taking smart measures to protect themselves. In 1995 they established the Mekong River Commission (MRC), which sets common goals for development of the river and studies the potential impact of proposed waterworks, hoping thereby to prevent upstream projects from harming downstream habitats. China has already been persuaded to accept observer status in the organization. If it could be convinced to become a full-fledged member, the commission stands a good chance of managing the river's water in a way that benefits everyone. This might entail redesigning China's as-yet-uncompleted dams on the upper Mekong to maximize their basin-wide utility, serving as storage reservoirs when rainfall is plentiful and releasing water when rains diminish.

Similar efforts would work well elsewhere. In South Asia, for example, India should work with Pakistan as their relations thaw to develop a joint plan for the Indus River, one that takes account of dramatic shifts in annual rainfall and the expected melting of the Himalayan glaciers. Here too this could entail the construction of new dams and reservoirs at higher, cooler elevations.

Environmentalists warn, however, that such measures alone will not overcome the impact of climate change. Too often, says Lori Pottinger of the International Rivers Network, these projects ignore "the poorest of the poor," who are the most likely to suffer from flooding and drought. That is why, she argues, these large-scale projects must incorporate small, localized adaptation efforts such as rainfall harvesting (collecting rainwater in rooftop reservoirs for household use) and greater assistance for those displaced by floods. The MRC has already undertaken several such efforts.

As all this suggests, the geopolitical forecast for global warming is a lot more complicated than previously assumed. Newly water-rich states are already starting to reap the benefits of their wetter climates, and with careful planning, they and even less fortunate nations can minimize the risks and maximize the benefits for all. Even as the world warms, the specter of water wars—which has long haunted governments, climate experts and political scientists—could well diminish, leading to less, not more, conflict in the years ahead.

Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College and the author of "Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict."

© 2007