The Making of a Homegrown Terrorist

Pre-Radicalization: Some characteristics of "pedigree, lifestyle, religion, social status, neighborhood and education" are common "just prior to the start of their journey" down the path to violent jihad. They're not poor. "Middle class families and students appear to provide the most fertile ground for the seeds of radicalization," the report concludes. They are mostly male Muslims under the age of 35 and local residents or citizens of Western liberal democracies. Some of "the most vulnerable" were born to other faiths and recently converted to Islam. They are of varied ethnic backgrounds—and almost all are "clean skins" in police parlance. They've got no records. The bottom line: at this stage they're effectively impossible to profile.

Self-Identification: This is where the winnowing begins; the terrorists-to-be start to identify with what the report calls Salafi Islam, which emphasizes a "pure" faith harking back to the early days of conquest and empire in the Caliphate of the seventh century. In fact the ideology they embrace is even narrower than that. It's the version often ascribed to Al Qaeda, but embraced by many other radical groups as well, which twists the revelations, sayings and hearsay of the Prophet Mohammed to serve anti-Western rage. A political or personal crisis can provoke this phase. So does an increasing association with small clusters of other angry young men (and occasionally angry young women).

Indoctrination: Goaded by the "groupthink" of fellow believers and fed by a constant diet of Internet propaganda, the terrorist candidate comes to believe that his faith demands action. Most likely, there will be what the report calls a "spiritual sanctioner" who literally blesses the idea of violent jihad with his teachings and opinions. There will also be a sort of "incubator"—whether a mosque, bookstore, student group or other small organization—where contacts can be made and fanaticism can be reinforced by the group's approval.

Jihadization: In this, the final phase, "members of the cluster accept their individual duty to participate in jihad." They call themselves holy warriors, and ultimately begin planning their attacks. Typically, by this stage they don't want to waste any time. While earlier steps from ordinary guy to would-be mass murderer may take years, "this jihadization component can be a very rapid process," says the NYPD report, "taking only a few months, or even weeks to run its course." At its center will be an "operational leader," like Mohammed Siddique Khan, who commanded the July 7, 2005, bombings in London, or like Muhammad Atta, on September 11, 2001—both of whom seemed so unremarkable just months before.

One of the most interesting observations in the study, in fact, compares the cluster in the 9/11 attack with those that came after. The similarities are remarkable. The real difference, apart from the number of casualties, is that the Hamburg cell that attacked on 9/11 eventually had more direct contact with the Al Qaeda leadership and was persuaded to hit the United States as part of a plan originally conceived by mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in the 1990s. But the way the key members of the group identified, radicalized and prepared themselves for the action fits right into the paradigm. They were "the critical piece" that KSM and Osama bin Laden needed, says the report. Muhammad Atta and his buddies were "fluent in English, Western-educated, and accustomed to Western culture and lifestyle." And they delivered themselves to Al Qaeda like a gift. The 9/11 attack itself hugely accelerated the overall process of radicalization among similar bunches of guys.

The fact that the pattern is so consistent "provides a tool for predictability," says the report. But, knowing all this, what can law enforcement do about it? Few arrests can be made before a clear conspiracy is taking shape in the final stage. Any effort at blanket surveillance of Muslim communities is likely to be counterproductive, to say the least, by feeding the anger of those who already feel themselves singled out and persecuted.