When Stalemate Is Not an Option

In Lebanon political violence has developed its own deadly rhythm. Whenever there's a major political controversy involving the country's anti-Syrian faction, it's likely to be followed by a blast in a Christian neighborhood. And so it was in the days ahead of this week's kickoff of a crucial parliamentary effort to end a two-year political stalemate and begin the task of choosing the country's next president.

This time the victim was a relatively obscure Christian Maronite lawmaker named Antoine Ghanem. He and six others died in a bombing that ripped through an upscale Christian neighborhood during the evening rush hour last Wednesday. Again the script was predictable: Lebanon's parliamentary majority is blaming Syria for the killing; the Hizbullah-led opposition is blaming other "shadowy" powers.

Less predictable, however, is just who the new president will be. There is no doubt that it has to be a Christian—the country's sectarian power-sharing agreement mandates that—but the question is what kind of Christian that person will be. A cohort of Syria with no specific opposition to Hizbullah, à la current President Emile Lahoud, or one of the Western-friendly anti-Syrian/Hizbullah partisans? Some magic figure in between?

The Hizbullah-allied house speaker, Nabih Berri, has called for a parliamentary meeting on Tuesday to kick off the selection process, which grants a two-month window for some agreement to emerge before things truly begin to fall apart. But the plan has already run into a major setback, as opposition lawmakers from Hizbullah, its Christian allies and members of Berri's own party are largely boycotting tomorrow's session—thereby preventing the quorum necessary for a successful vote.

While Berri has announced his intention to sit in his office tomorrow regardless, Lebanese politics once again appears stalemated. But this time the impasse can't last forever. Parliament must choose a new president within the next two months or risk even broader chaos.

In the wake of the assassination and ahead of tomorrow's stillborn parliamentary session, NEWSWEEK spoke to some key figures inside Lebanon's Christian community and found reactions ranging from calm analysis to righteously indignant white heat.