When Stalemate Is Not an Option

The crisis surrounding the presidency, though, is slightly different. Most important, there's a firm deadline. Lahoud must step down by Nov. 24; failure to choose a new president by that date could provoke a constitutional crisis. That, however, is no guarantee that a candidate acceptable to all in Parliament will be found. (In an interview last week, Hizbullah's second in command, Sheik Naim Qassem, told the London daily Asharq al-Awsat that what Lebanon needs in a president is someone who can serve as an unbiased "referee" between the Hizbullah-led opposition and the government.)

In so polarized a political milieu, such a moderate may be hard to find. Certainly Lahoud has hardly been neutral, acting alternately as a pit bull when it comes to the current parliamentary majority and something more like a loyal lap dog when it comes to Syria. When asked about the prospects of finding someone, Harb again tries to sound positive. "Many names are being dealt with now that can be accepted by both parties," he claims. "It's a little bit early now," he admits when pressed for specifics. "When the list is shortened … we can be more precise."

Meanwhile, Lahoud has suggested naming current Lebanese Armed ForcesGen. Michel Sulaiman as an interim president, should a consensus fail to materialize. Harb, however, predicts Sulaiman would reject any such appointment. "First of all," Harb tells NEWSWEEK, "[Lahoud] doesn't have the right to appoint anyone … He doesn't have the right to stay one more second after Nov. 24 … Furthermore, the army general would never accept to be nominated by Lahoud if the parliamentarians do not agree. It's not possible."

If no compromise candidate is found, the scenarios are bleak. The pro-Hizbullah Aoun has suggested that the principle of "the strongest on the ground"—with all its civil-war undertones—could prevail. Aoun's allies may also attempt to filibuster. Speaking with NEWSWEEK on the day the boycott of Tuesday's session was announced, pro-Aoun legislator Ibrahim Kanaan hinted that the party may insist that the Constitutional Court—moribund since 2005—should be asked to step in. "While we consider that the presidential election should technically take place within the time frame set by the constitution," says Kanaan, "we also undoubtedly believe that the Constitutional Court should be enabled to look into the regularity of the electoral process."

Alternatively, that narrow parliamentary majority could simply attempt to elect one of its own members, like Harb, without the opposition's consent. There is some controversy over the requirements needed to sustain a quorum and certify an election result, but if its back is against the wall, the majority in government could simply wing it and dare Hizbullah to escalate. (In the same Asharq al-Awsat interview Qassem obliquely suggested that "no one can foresee" whether Hizbullah's weapons might be used inside Lebanon, were the government to go for a power grab.)

Bottom line: after years of needing to employ crude tactics such as comparing the size of opposing demonstrations in downtown Beirut, the eventual outcome of this presidential fight may actually provide one of the best indicators in some time as to which side is, in Aoun's words, stronger on the ground. Failure, as always, remains possible in Lebanon—but this time merely failing to act won't be an option.

© 2007