A Goat’s Tale

On Monday night Hoffman was given a chance to redeem himself. Called upon to ring up one more save, which would have been the 525th of his career, with a two-run lead in the 13th inning, Hoffman got only one out: the sacrifice fly that drove in the third and winning run. It was scored by Rockies star Matt Holliday, the N.L. batting champion and an MVP candidate, who in one game experienced the full range of hero/goat possibilities. Until he tripled in the tying run and scored the game-winner, Holliday would have been recalled for the defensive lapse in left field that enabled the Padres to send the game into extra innings.

Today, though we have had less than 48 hours to catch our breath, the playoffs begin. There will be new heroes and, almost certainly, new goats. Here's my capsule preview and my predictions, with potential goats.

Phillies vs. Rockies
Baseball's two comeback kings hook up in a karmic test. The balls fly out of Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park the way they once flew out of Coors Field in Denver. The Phillies have an amazing 1-2 punch with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, and an all-or-nothing slugger behind them in Ryan Howard. But these days some wild-card team always makes waves and the Holliday-Todd Helton tandem will drive the Rockies to the next round in five games.

Most Likely Goat: Phillies—If Howard hits a bad streak he could strike out 20 times in this series. Rockies—Helton, a career .332 hitter, has never had a postseason at-bat and is not quite the hitter he was in his prime.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
The Diamondbacks are the most inexplicable team in the postseason, having the best record in the league while having been outscored by the opposition this season. But they have a real ace in Brandon Webb, and he's ready—and rested—to start two games. The Cubs, by contrast, have the worst record of any team in the playoffs. That didn't stop the Cardinals from winning it all out of the same wretched division last year. But unless the Cubs find a miracle cure for their bullpen, it will be Arizona in five.

MLG: Cubs—Carlos Zambrano signed a $91.5 million extension in August and will be asked to match up with Webb. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts, but he was lousy in the postcontract weeks. Diamondbacks—Webb, practically the only player on the whole team that a casual fan might know, has to carry the load or Arizona will be snakebit.